DM Paroker

I suspect we’ve not seen anything yet! I predict the trumpeted welfare cuts will not be enacted fully. So, after the NI hikes hit in April, the economy will enter a period of recession and the tax revenue will fall, despite the higher tax rates. Assuming she’s still in post to deliver the next Budget, what will Reeves do, especially when unemployment rises and inflation jumps? She can’t afford to be seen to be forcing “austerity” on the public, as that’d be political suicide. So an increase in basic rate tax, a freeze or reduction in tax allowances, or a wealth tax will come next. The mortgage rate and generally the cost of borrowing will make the blip under Truss look like heaven. That will only screw UK plc further and so we’d be calling on the IMF for a bailout within 2 years. Please tell me I’m wrong!

But even if the reforms to health-related and other benefits go through intact, they will save little more each year than the £4.2bn borrowing overshoot chalked up in February alone. That is testament to the fragility of the UK’s public finances – and the fiscal pressures unleashed when economies grind to a halt, as we’ve seen in recent months. Yes, Trump’s tariffs have muddied the international economic waters. And of course, some inflationary pressures are global. Yet Reeves’s growth-sapping taxes, even before most of them have been implemented, have already done enormous economic and therefore fiscal damage. And if she raises taxes again this week, the damage will only get worse. 🧵 8/8 telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/…

If the economy grows, you get a lot more tax revenue as there is a lot more economic activity by definition - and that is how you solve your fiscal problems. The tax burden is already at a 70-year high, with yet another massive slug of taxation, announced in October about to come in. That is clearly causing the UK economy to stall and even contract, as I explained in my thread and have been saying for months and months, making the fiscal position even worse. If you try to “plug” a gap in the public finances by raising tax rates yet again, all you will do is hammer the economy even more, resulting in LESS tax revenue, even weaker public finances and, ultimately a full-blown financial crisis - in which the poor, as always, will suffer the most. Dismiss my analysis as “ideological” if you like. Or, better, crack open a history book - because what I am saying is grounded in historic evidence across countless countries over many years and, outside of narrow political/media circles, absolutely uncontroversial ….

@CardanoShepherd @Tims_TA This, $SOL out and $ADA in

@Tims_TA Sol out, hbar in..

If you could add 1 coin to the Strategic Reserve and Remove 1 coin, what would you choose? Here are the ones currently in: BTC ETH XRP SOL ADA

I had a good call with an MP (not mine) on #footballindex yesterday and supported a constituent with her call. My ask is meetings with Baroness Twycross and Emma Reynolds MP who is responsible for the FCA. These requests will be made next week. Baroness Twycross is meeting the MP

On the 22nd April at 6pm I will be presenting the #footballindex story to the @TransparencyTF via zoom. it's free to join and there is no capacity issues. The TTF have been great so far and work in conjunction with @appgonifandffs who have been rightly highly critical of the FCA

I am not going to lie my focus has been on the FCA recently but this opens up the GC once again. Not going to share it for now! But once again very useful

Please share this far & wide #footballindex - I would love to speak to the sender of this email and what the response was?

Who remembers that trading webinar #footballindex arranged to show us how shit their order book implementation was? Was this the company who arranged the training? Amplify? amplifyme.com

If Bet365 found it challenging how did the GC think Index Labs could do it?

This is the HQ of Avis Capital. It claims to be one of the largest companies in the UK, with £58bn in assets and 31% returns promised to investors. Except it's all a lie. Here's how regulatory failures are letting international fraudsters create massive fake UK companies.

I would love to know the law firm that is still helping #footballindex victims and received he same response as me from FRCC last September. If anyone knows anything please DM or email fiactiongroup@outlook.com - confidentially of course

I am compiling a list of print and online journalists to contact and targeting those who wrote about the FCA incompetent report in November. If anyone has any suggestions and they are on this platform please comment and tag them in! Helps me out a bit :) #footballindex

Reading the purpose statement for this APPG and thinking "this is right up our street" regarding #footballindex

Better not spend it before we get our redress for #footballindex

Productive day on #footballindex yesterday. Got an interesting zoom call booked for Thursday. More letters out. More to do today. Keep the Faith!

Just tried deepseek out on my specialised subject. It's pretty good

Can anyone recall receiving letters from their MPs back in 2021-23 enclosing any correspondence from the FCA that your MP had received regarding #footballindex - building a case and it will help. I have a couple but more would be good.

Nothing in legislation distinguishes between financial & sport when it comes to the underlying. FCA told me it was a spread bet. Which they regulate. No grey areas. In black & white.

However Article 85 clearly states spread bet is a specified investment.