Shaan@ShaanS7_
NFL Week 15 Full Preview 🏈
❤️🏈
The Patriots' 10-Game Winning Streak Comes to an End This Week 🦬
The Buffalo Bills travel to Foxborough in a divisional matchup vs. the Patriots. The Bills look to get their revenge against the Patriots after suffering a loss to them earlier in the season. Over the past couple of weeks, I've been waiting for an opportunity to fade this Patriots team. In my opinion, the Patriots' 11-2 record isn't as impressive as it looks. Once you dive deeper into who the Patriots have played so far this season, you come away thinking they aren't an elite team. Through the first 14 games of the season, the Patriots' strength of schedule ranks 32nd in the NFL. Now the Patriots face a Buffalo Bills offense that ranks 2nd in Rush EPA. I'm excited to break down this matchup. Let's get into the breakdown.
Patriots Run Defense Concerns:
The loss of Milton Williams has really hurt this Patriots run defense. Since Week 11, the Patriots defense ranks 32nd in the NFL in defensive rushing success rate allowed. The Bills offense is going to be able to run the football in this matchup. The Bills offense this season ranks 4th in offensive rushing success rate and 1st in rush yards per game. Additionally, the Bills should get back their star RT Spencer Brown in this matchup. Joe Brady has to rely on James Cook if the Bills want to win this football game.
Josh Allen vs. The Patriots Secondary:
Josh Allen is also going to have some success vs. this Patriots secondary in this matchup. The key to limiting Josh Allen is to generate pressure on him. (The problem is the Patriots defense ranks 19th in the NFL in pressure rate.) Josh Allen has been fantastic this season with a clean pocket. (Allen, with a clean pocket this season, owns an 83.3% adjusted completion rate with just a 1.9% turnover-worthy play rate.)
Now from a coverage perspective, over the last 6 weeks, the Patriots defensively have mainly run Cover 1, Cover 2, and Cover 3. Josh Allen vs. single-high coverages this season owns a 79% on-target rate with a boom % of 30.3%. Even with the Patriots' secondary ranking 5th in coverage grading, I expect Allen to find a ton of success in this matchup.
Bills Receivers vs. Cover 1, 2, 3
Dalton Kincaid
3.1 YPRR | 0.22 TPRR
Gabe Davis
1.7 YPRR | 0.13 TPRR
Khalil Shakir
1.5 YPRR | 0.2 TPRR
Flip to the other side of the football; the Patriots offense is going to have its passing attack in this matchup. The Patriots offense this season has really struggled to run the football. The Patriots offense this season ranks 31st in offensive rushing success rate and 29th in EPA/rush. The weakness of the Bills' defense is their run defense. The Bills' defense this season ranks 29th in YPC allowed and 29th in EPA/rush. Look for Josh McDaniels to rely on Drake Maye in this matchup.
With Will Campbell still injured, the Patriots offense might have to resort to the quick passing game in this matchup. Vederian Lowe ranks as one of the worst tackles in the NFL.
Now from a coverage perspective, over the past 6 weeks, Buffalo defensively has mainly run Cover 3, Cover 4, and Cover 6. Vs. these coverages this season, Drake Maye owns a 70.4% completion rate with a passer rating of 105.4. Maye has been dominant vs. zone coverage this season. Additionally, PFF grades out Drake Maye as the 2nd quarterback in the NFL vs. 2-high coverages this season. (Buffalo runs 2-high shell coverages at the 8th highest rate in the NFL.) Look for Drake Maye to have some success vs. this Bills defense in this matchup.
Stefon Diggs vs. C4/C6 This Season 0.25 TPRR
My Final Thoughts:
I expect the Patriots offense to have success in this matchup, but I expect Buffalo's defense to be able to stop Drake Maye in some certain situational moments. The key for the Bills to win this game is to limit Stefon Diggs. The best way to limit Diggs is to put Christian Benford on him. In an earlier matchup this season, Diggs found a ton of success vs. Bills slot cornerback Taron Johnson. If you take away Stefon Diggs from Drake Maye, you are forcing Maye to throw to other lesser targets on the team. Additionally, the Bills' passing defense since Week 7 ranks top 10 in EPA allowed and top 10 in success rate allowed.
Also, when I was researching this game, I found an interesting statistic. The Patriots' red zone offense ranks 25th in the NFL, and the Patriots' red zone defense ranks 32nd in the NFL. The deciding factor for this game will come down to if the Patriots offense can score touchdowns instead of field goals.
In my opinion, the Bills offense is going to send a message in this matchup
Trends:
When the spread is between +3 and -3, Josh Allen is 19-7 ATS (73%)
.
Since 2021, Buffalo is 8-0 vs. teams that beat them earlier in the season.
My Prediction:
Bills Win This Game
James Cook Finds the End Zone
Trust The Bengals Passing Attack in This Matchup 🐯
Since the Ravens moved Kyle Hamilton to the box in Week 5, their rush defense has ranked third in EPA allowed. Additionally, with Kyle Hamilton playing closer to the line of scrimmage, the Ravens’ tackling unit has significantly improved; hence, they give up fewer explosive rushes now. I expect the Bengals offense to rely on its passing attack in this matchup.
When you give Joe Burrow a clean pocket, he's going to dissect your defense. The Ravens' defense this season ranks 30th in pressure rate and 15th in blitz rate. Joe Burrow is going to have a ton of time to throw in this matchup. Joe Burrow in 2024 owned a 75.3% completion rate with a clean pocket.
Now from a coverage perspective, the Ravens over the last 6 weeks have primarily run Cover 1 and Cover 3 at around a 60% rate. The leaders in YPRR vs. Cover 1 and Cover 3 this season for the Bengals are Ja'Marr Chase (2.2 YPRR) and Mitchell Tinsley (1.9 YPRR). Even with no Tee Higgins in this matchup, I expect the Bengals offense to be able to light up the Ravens' secondary.
Ja'Marr Chase Owns a Ridiculous 0.36 TPRR vs. Single High This Season
Predictions:
Joe Burrow Finishes As a Top 5 Fantasy Quarterback This Week
Prop Lean: Ja'Marr Chase Props
Trust Joey B To Cook
Matthew Stafford Continues His MVP Campaign vs the Lions 🐏
The Lions' secondary is going to be without a ton of key pieces in this matchup. Both safeties, Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, are slated to miss this game, and cornerback Terrion Arnold is on IR. Now the Lions face a Rams offense that ranks 3rd in EPA/pass and 1st in offensive passing success rate. I expect Matthew Stafford to have a ton of success in this matchup. Now let's dive into some matchups in this game.
Kelvin Sheppard's defense this season has run man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, at a 40% rate. Running man coverage vs. Matthew Stafford is never a recipe for success. Matthew Stafford, this season, ranks 1st among quarterbacks in EPA/play vs. man coverage. Look for Matthew Stafford to connect with receivers like Puka Nacua and Davante Adams vs. Detroit's aggressive man-coverage-heavy defense.
The Lions defense this season has also run Cover 1 and Cover 3 at a 59% rate. Stafford has dominated both Cover 1 and Cover 3 this season, owning a 54.1% positive play rate vs. those coverages.
Rams Receivers vs. Single High
Puka Nacua
0.41 TPRR | 4.3 YPRR
Davante Adams
0.26 TPRR | 1.6 YPRR
Since Week 11, the Lions' run defense ranks top 6 in rush EPA allowed and in rushing success rate allowed. Expect the Rams offense to rely on the pass in this matchup.
With the injuries to the Lions' secondary and the matchup on hand, I expect Matthew Stafford to have another MVP-type performance in this game.
My Prediction:
Matthew Stafford Finishes As A Top 3 Fantasy Quarterback (I Also Like His Passing Alt Props)
Also look for Puka Nacua to have a massive game.
Fade The Cardinals Offense In This Matchup ❌
The Cardinals offensive line is in absolute shambles going into this matchup.
Here are the players out for the Cardinals' offensive line:
Paris Johnson (Out)
Evan Brown (Out)
Jonah Williams (Out For The Season)
Will Hernandez (Out For The Season)
The Cardinals' backups are going to struggle heavily to block Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter in this matchup.
Now the Cardinals face the best defense in the NFL. The Texans' defense this season ranks 8th in pressure rate and 2nd in pass rush grading. Additionally, the Texans' defense this season ranks 3rd in defensive success rate and 1st in EPA/pass. Since Jacoby Brissett became the starter for the Cardinals, the Cardinals have had the highest pass rate in the NFL. I expect the Texans' defense to cause a ton of havoc in this matchup.
Jacoby Brissett has also struggled under pressure this season, owning a 45.5% completion percentage with just a passer rating of 64.8. On a PPG average, the Texans are allowing just 16 points per game this season.
Prediction:
Jacoby Brissett is a fade for me in fantasy. (With the Cardinals' entire offensive line hurt, I don't expect much from Brissett in this matchup.)
Also treat Michael Wilson as a WR3 with upside this week. (I expect Derek Stingley or Kamari Lassiter to constantly be on him.)
I also don't hate Brissett's passing prop fades.
Back The 49ers Offense In This Matchup 🔴🔴
The Titans defense has been atrocious this season, ranking 29th in EPA/pass and 18th in overall defensive success rate. Now the Titans face a 49ers offense off a bye week. Let's dive into some matchups in this game.
How Will the 49ers' Passing Attack Look in This Matchup?
I expect the 49ers' passing offense to thrive in this game. The 49ers offense this season ranks 4th in offensive passing success rate and 9th in EPA/pass. Brock Purdy thrives against bad coverage units.
Now, from a coverage perspective, since Week 8, the Titans have mainly run Cover 1, Cover 3, and Cover 6. Vs. these coverages this season, Brock Purdy has a 67% completion rate with a 9.9 ADOT.
49ers Receivers vs. Cover 1, Cover 3, and Cover 6
George Kittle
2.6 PRR | 0.26 TPRR
Ricky Pearsall
2.4 YPRR | 0.21 TPRR
Jauan Jennings
1.6 YPRR | 0.23 TPRR
CMC
2 YPRR | 0.25 TPRR
The Titans defense allows the 6th most targets to opposing TEs.
The Titans defense also allows the 6th most receiving yards to opposing WRs.
This matchup is a good buy-low spot for Ricky Pearsall.
How will the 49ers' rushing attack look in this matchup?
The Titans' rush defense this season ranks 22nd in YPC allowed and 20th in EPA allowed. I expect the 49ers offense to be able to run the football. Don't be shocked if you see Brian Robinson Jr. getting 7-8 carries in this matchup. With CMC banged up a bit, I expect Shanahan to rely on BROB a bit as a double-digit favorite in this spot.
Prediction:
The 49ers Offense Explodes In This Spot.
Ricky Pearsall Clears His Prop Lines (Specifically Receiving Yards)
Brock Purdy is also A Must Start In Fantasy.
Justin Jefferson Bounces Back This Week ⭐️⭐️
The Cowboys coverage unit has really struggled this season. The Cowboys' passing defense this season ranks 31st in PFF Coverage Grading and 30th in EPA/pass. Look for Justin Jefferson to bounce back in this matchup.
Additionally, the Cowboys allow the most receiving yards in the NFL to opposing WRs.
Now from a coverage perspective, the Cowboys have run zone coverage at the 6th highest rate in the NFL this season. Vs. zone coverage this season, Justin Jefferson is averaging 2.37 YPRR with a 28% target share.
Justin Jefferson has finished with under 10 fantasy points in 3 straight games; I expect that to change on Sunday Night Football.
Even with JJ McCarthy's struggles this season, I expect JJ to be fine passing the football in this matchup. The Vikings' entire offensive line should also be healthy in this game, so expect JJ to have quality pass protection.
WRs vs. the Cowboys Since Week 10
Jameson Williams 7/96
Amon-Ra St. Brown 6/92
Rashee Rice 8/92 2TDs
Xavier Worthy 4/61
AJ Brown 8/110 1 TD
Devonta Smith 6/89
Tre Tucker 4/47 1TD
Prediction:
Justin Jefferson finishes as a top 12 fantasy WR and has a quality game.
My Hot Take: Jefferson Scores a Touchdown and Goes for 100+
Trust Jonathan Taylor in the Receiving Game 🐴🐴
Philip Rivers can't move.
RBs in 2020 accumulated 25% of Philip Rivers's targets. With Philip Rivers now being 44 years old, I expect his ADOT to be pretty low in this matchup.
Additionally, with the Seahawks' pass rush ranking 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate, I expect Philip Rivers to get the football out quickly in this matchup. Older quarterbacks typically don't like to take big hits.
Matchup:
The Seahawks defense allows the 6th most receiving yards and the 4th most receptions in the NFL to opposing RBs.
RBs vs. the Seahawks in the Receiving Game Since Week 7
Tyler Allgeier 2/33
Aaron Jones 4/22
Tony Pollard 4/21
Tyjae Spears 4/21
Emari Demercado 3/40
Woody Marks 3/20 1TD
Trust Jonathan Taylor to Catch the Football
Wandale Robinson Finishes As A Top 20 Fantasy WR This Week 🏈
The Washington Commanders' coverage unit this season ranks 32nd in PFF coverage grading and 29th in defensive passing success rate allowed. Wandale Robinson should thrive in this matchup.
The Commanders' defense this season allows the 7th most receiving yards in the NFL to opposing WRs. Wandale Robinson is averaging 13.1 fantasy points per game this season.
Now from a coverage perspective, over the past month, the Commanders have run zone coverage at around an 85% rate. Vs. zone coverage this season, Wandale Robinson is averaging 2.17 YPRR with a 24.3% target share. Look for Robinson to thrive against this bad Commanders defense.
The Commanders' defense also struggles heavily in defending the slot. 68.1% of Robinson's routes this season have come from the slot.
WRs vs. the Commanders Since Week 9
Jordan Addison 10.2 Fantasy Points
Courtland Sutton 17.2 Fantasy Points
Jaylen Waddle 8.5 Fantasy Points (7 Targets)
Jameson Williams 23.9 Fantasy Points
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 16.8 Fantasy Points
JSN 20.9 Fantasy Points
Tory Horton: 20.8 Fantasy Points
Wandale Robinson is a great WR3 with upside this week.
Additional Notes:🗒️
Jalen Hurts has just a 1.9% turnover-worthy play rate this season. He now faces a Raiders secondary that ranks 30th in coverage grading. (I expect Hurts to take care of the football in this matchup.) (Additionally, the Raiders lost Kyu Blu Kelly in the secondary last week.)
Jordan Love grades out as the best quarterback in the NFL vs. the blitz. The Broncos have blitzed opposing QBs at the 7th highest rate this season, at 30.9%. (I expect Jordan Love to have some success vs. Vance Joseph's defense in this matchup.)
Without Maliek Collins in Week 14, the Browns defense really struggled to stop Cam Ward and the Titans rushing offense. The Titans averaged 5.3 YPC in that game. With the Bears' offense ranking 3rd in run blocking grading and 3rd in rush EPA, I expect the Bears to be able to run the football in this matchup.
(Additionally, the temperature at kickoff in this game is going to be 11 degrees, so I don't expect much from Caleb Williams in this matchup. Now I know, the Browns' rush defense has been fantastic all year, but the Bears' offensive line is legit.)
Justin Herbert was pressured on 68% of his dropbacks vs. the Eagles last week. The Eagles, in that matchup, were also without their best defensive lineman, Jalen Carter. Now the Chargers face the Chiefs in Arrowhead. The Chiefs' pass rush this season ranks 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate and 6th in the NFL in blitz rate. I expect Justin Herbert to be under a ton of duress in this matchup. With the Chargers' offensive line ranking 30th in pass blocking grading, I expect the Chiefs' pass rush to thrive in this game. (I expect the Chargers offense to struggle in this game.)
Since Week 11, the Saints' rush defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in defensive rushing success rate allowed. Additionally, the Saints defense has struggled vs. zone rush concepts this season. Dave Canales emphasized earlier in a presser this month that the Panthers will use Rico Dowdle on early downs. Rico Dowdle has been phenomenal this season and is averaging 3.43 yards after contact per attempt. (Look for Rico Dowdle to have some success in this matchup.)
The Bengals defense this season has really struggled against TEs. The Bengals are allowing 24.11 fantasy points per game to TEs. (Look for Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely to thrive in this matchup.) (I expect one of the TEs to find the end zone.) (Likely has the best overall matchup, but Andrews has an excellent red zone matchup.)
With Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner out for the Colts' secondary, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is in for a massive day in the receiving game. Expect more zone coverage from the Colts in this matchup, with their injuries in the secondary. Vs. zone coverage this season, JSN is averaging 4.29 YPRR with a 37% target share.
Travis Etienne Jr. in Week 14 received 84% of the Jaguars' backfield touches. Now Travis Etienne Jr. gets to face a Jets defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to RBs. (With an excellent red zone matchup, I expect Travis to thrive in this game.) (RB1 Matchup)
For More NFL Previews Like This Drop a ❤️❤️
