Perspez
2.3K posts
@perspez
The stock market rewards patience, discipline, and perspective.
The CEO of $SLNH will be joining us on Tuesday, June 2 at 2:00pm EST. Reserve your spot: x.com/i/spaces/1wxWj…
$SLNH Robert L. Bugbee taking a ~9.3% stake in @SolunaHoldings is a strong signal. Bugbee has spent decades in shipping, energy, commodities and infrastructure. He has led public tanker companies, worked around capital-intensive energy markets, and understands cycles where assets, power access and timing create asymmetric upside. That background is highly relevant to Soluna. As some of you al ready know, Soluna is no longer just a Bitcoin mining story. The real thesis is energy infrastructure: monetizing stranded or underutilized renewable power and converting it into AI/HPC data center capacity. That is exactly the kind of setup an energy-infrastructure investor can understand early: cheap power, hard assets, massive AI demand, and a market still slow to reprice the pivot. A 13G does not guarantee success, but when someone with Bugbee’s background takes a large position, it suggests the Soluna AI/HPC transformation is starting to attract serious strategic capital. The market may still be looking at the old mining story. Smart money may be looking at the power + AI infrastructure story.
Every technological breakthrough starts with a physical constraint: power. As AI infrastructure scales, energy availability is becoming one of the defining challenges of the next decade, and a major opportunity for renewable energy markets. On Brightsmith’s Conversations in Cleantech, John Belizaire discusses curtailed renewables, grid constraints, flexible computing, and the future of sustainable AI infrastructure with Chloe England. 🎙️ tinyurl.com/spwvjkv7 #AIInfrastructure #RenewableEnergy #DataCenters $SLNH @jbelizaireCEO
Everyone in AI infrastructure is talking about speed-to-power. Few can deliver it. What it actually takes: power that doesn't depend entirely on the grid, infrastructure built at the generation site, and an intelligence platform that keeps computing running through variability. That's what we built. $SLNH New on the blog: solunacomputing.com/blog/speed-to-…
$SLNH: A 20x AI/HPC Potential People are still thinking too small about @SolunaHoldings AI/HPC upside. Let’s build a simple scenario. From the Q1 interview, AI/HPC buildout costs were discussed around $10–12M per MW. Soluna is not trying to build everything at once. The first major AI/HPC step is Kati 2 phase 1: ~100 MW IT / ~150–160 MW gross If that first Kati 2 lease lands, the story changes fast. Why? Because Kati 2 becomes the playbook. Management said the design approach from Kati 2 can be applied to Dorothy 3. So once Kati 2 is validated, Dorothy 3 and further Kati 2 expansion could move much faster. Now look at the broader scenario: Kati 2 + Dorothy 3 could represent around 600 MW+ AI/HPC potential. At $10–12M per MW, that equals: 600 MW × $10–12M/MW = $6.0–7.2B total infrastructure buildout And 600 MW is not even the full story. Soluna’s broader power pipeline is around 4.3 GW. That means Kati 2 and Dorothy 3 could simply be the first visible AI/HPC conversion wave. The financing model matters too. This is not supposed to be funded entirely from today’s balance sheet. The Q1 interview pointed to: • Signed lease • Tenant credit support • Project-level debt • Possible project-level equity partner • Parent-level capital after re-rating If Soluna can limit parent-level dilution while retaining meaningful project economics, then a $5B market cap is not crazy in a successful AI/HPC scenario. That would represent roughly 20x potential from today’s valuation range. The sequence is what matters: Kati 2 phase 1 lease → market re-rating → capital formation → construction → Dorothy 3 + Kati 2 expansion The first lease is the unlock.
$SLNH @SolunaHoldings is one of the more interesting microcap setups I’m watching into 2026. Not because the chart alone guarantees anything. But because the larger timeframe chart may be starting to align with the exact theme the market is chasing right now: AI infrastructure + power scarcity + data center capacity. From a weekly Elliott Wave perspective, one possible scenario is: Wave 1: ~$0.36 → ~$5.14 ✅️ Wave 2: full reset back toward ~$0.6 ✅️ Wave 3: potential expansion phase ~ $8,3 ⏳️ Wave 4: future consolidation ~$6,5 ⏳️ Wave 5: final extension if execution confirms the thesis ~$10,5 ⏳️ In a normal bullish structure, Wave 3 could target the ~$8–$9 area. If Wave 3 becomes extended, the next major zone would be around ~$13+. And if the full cycle plays out with a strong Wave 5, the chart opens a possible ~$18+ scenario. What makes the setup interesting is the timing. Soluna is moving from a Bitcoin-hosting microcap toward an AI/HPC infrastructure story, with Project Kati 2 positioned around 100+ MW of initial AI/HPC capacity and a longer roadmap toward 300+ MW. At the same time: • insiders are buying • Russell 3000 visibility is on the table • hyperscaler / neocloud discussions are active • AI data center power demand is becoming one of the biggest bottlenecks in the market • smart money may be starting to look at power-first data center plays earlier than retail expects That is where the opportunity sits. Not in pretending every target is guaranteed. But in recognizing when a beaten-down microcap starts to build a larger reversal structure at the same time the fundamental story is moving into one of the hottest themes on Wall Street. If Soluna delivers real AI/HPC customer execution, the current move could end up being only the early phase of a much larger re-rating. $SLNH
I think we are in a larger wave 3 setup now. Of course it won’t go straight up. There will be smaller waves, pullbacks and shakeouts on lower timeframes. But in the bigger picture, I still think $SLNH is building toward a much larger move, with $10+ as a realistic target if the major catalysts land. The difference now is that the technical setup is aligning with strong fundamental signals: Kati 2 AI/HPC Dorothy 3 Briscoe power integration BTC hosting growth Russell 3000 visibility insider/institutional interest So for me it’s simple: patience. We are still early.
$SLNH One of the most important parts of Soluna’s McNallie Money interview was the financing discussion around Kati 2. This is where the AI/HPC story starts to move from hype to real infrastructure economics. CFO Michael Peachey made the scale very clear: «“Kati 2 just for phase one would be $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion.”» That is only phase 1. The reason is simple: AI/HPC data centers are not Bitcoin mining capex. Anthony framed it perfectly: «“We’re not talking Bitcoin mining numbers here, we’re talking HPC numbers.”» AI/HPC buildout costs were discussed around $10–12M per MW. So Kati 2 phase 1, targeting roughly 100 MW IT, could represent a $1.0–1.2B infrastructure project. That is the scale many investors still do not understand. This is not about adding a few more Bitcoin containers. This is about Soluna trying to move into billion-dollar AI/HPC data center development. The key question is obvious: How does a company of Soluna’s current size finance a project this large? Peachey answered that directly. «“We do think we’ll be able to get 80% funding on the debt side of it.”» That matters. If phase 1 costs $1.0–1.2B, then 80% debt could imply roughly: • $800–960M debt • $200–240M equity Still a large equity requirement, but very different from funding the whole project with common equity. And importantly, the equity may not all need to come at the Soluna Holdings level. Peachey also said: «“Conversely, we might accept an equity investor to partner with us at the Kati 2 level.”» That is a key point. A project-level equity partner could reduce parent-level dilution while still allowing Soluna to develop the asset. This is why the first AI/HPC lease is so important. Without a lease, Kati 2 is still a development project. With a lease, Soluna gets: • A customer • Contract value • A clearer construction timeline • Financing visibility • Bankability • A path to capital formation John said it clearly earlier: «“Once that lease is signed… we now have to go do capital formation.”» That is the real unlock. The market should not look at future capital raises in a simplistic way. There is bad dilution, and there is growth capital. Bad dilution = raising equity just to fund losses. Potentially value-creating capital = raising equity/debt around a signed AI/HPC lease to finance a contracted billion-dollar infrastructure asset. That is a completely different situation. Peachey also said Soluna raised $142M in fresh capital in 2025 through multiple sources, including ATM, share equity purchase agreement and project-level debt. Then he called it: «“A dry run for 2026.”» That tells me management sees 2026 as the year where capital formation becomes much larger and more directly tied to AI/HPC. Another key quote: «“I do think we would do it in phases.”» That lowers initial risk. Soluna is not talking about building all of Kati 2 at once. The first contract is expected to focus on the first 100 MW. Then future expansion could follow. Peachey said the next phase could be another 250 MW, requiring an additional $2.5–3B. But he also made an important point: «“At the time we go back to raise money for that next incremental 250 megawatts… the company Soluna will be much, much larger.”» That is the core of the bull case. If Soluna lands a major AI/HPC lease, starts construction, and shows a credible financing path, the company may no longer be valued like a small Bitcoin hosting name. It could begin to be valued as an emerging AI power/data center infrastructure platform.
The signals are starting to stack up around $SLNH @SolunaHoldings Insider buying, institutional ownership moving higher, and preliminary Russell 3000 inclusion are all worth paying attention to. But the real reason I’m watching closely is the 2026 catalyst roadmap and Q2 should be materially stronger than Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 as Dorothy 2, Kati 1 and Briscoe start contributing more. Roadmap ahead: • Complete/ramp Kati 1B 35 MW following mechanical completion and power commissioning” • New energy announcements • Design & engineering kickoff for Kati 2 AI • PPAs on Rosa, Hedy, Ellen, Annie + new projects • New BTC hosting announcements • Kati 2 AI announcements • Dorothy 3 AI announcements • Additional new AI announcements And the bigger point is Soluna’s approach. Most data center developers start with land/buildings and then chase power. Soluna starts with power first. AI infrastructure is no longer just a “build more data centers” story. Communities are pushing back against projects that consume too much water, stress local grids, raise local power concerns or bring huge industrial loads without clear local benefit. Soluna’s model is built differently. They bring compute to renewable power, use BTC hosting as flexible/curtailable load where it makes sense, and target AI/HPC where the site can support higher-value infrastructure. That flexibility can matter for communities and grids. AI/HPC is the high-value load. BTC hosting can help monetize power quickly and provide flexibility when the grid needs it. And Kati 2 is being designed with low-water impact in mind: air-cooled systems plus direct liquid closed-loop cooling, not a data center sucking massive amounts of water from the ground. That is why I think Soluna’s solution is highly relevant right now.
$IREN ’s latest Q3 FY2026 earnings call is probably one of the most important reads for anyone trying to understand the $SLNH thesis. Not because @SolunaHoldings is IREN today. It is not. ( IREN Mcap: $20B, SLNH: $170M) But because IREN shows exactly how the market is starting to value the new AI infrastructure winners. This is no longer just about Bitcoin mining. The market is rewarding companies that control the real bottleneck behind AI growth: Power. Land. Data center sites. Fast deployment. Financing access. Time to compute. IREN made the point very clear: Demand is not the constraint. Supply is. Every GPU that comes online gets used. Customers are fighting for capacity. The real question is no longer “is there demand?” but “who can actually deliver power-backed compute fast enough?” That is where the Soluna story becomes interesting. Soluna is obviously much earlier than IREN. IREN already has Microsoft, Nvidia, billions in contracted ARR, 5 GW secured power, GPU deployments and large-scale construction underway. Soluna does not have that level of validation yet. But Soluna is building around the same structural bottleneck: power availability. The difference is that Soluna is attacking it through renewable energy, behind-the-meter infrastructure, curtailed power and data centers built directly around energy assets. Soluna already has: • Kati 2 targeting large-scale AI/HPC • Dorothy 3 as another major AI data center opportunity • Briscoe Wind Farm adding energy control and vertical integration • Metrobloks/Siemens involvement around design and deployment • A growing multi-GW development pipeline • Management guiding for AI/HPC customer progress in 2026 • Ongoing discussions with hyperscalers, neoclouds, OEMs and other infrastructure customers • A market cap still tiny compared to the scale of the opportunity That customer mix matters. Hyperscalers want scale. Neoclouds want fast access to power-backed compute. OEMs and enterprise customers want reliable infrastructure partners. AI labs and compute buyers want capacity now, not in five years. This is exactly the market imbalance IREN is monetizing today. What IREN shows is that once the market sees a credible bridge from power to AI revenue, the valuation framework changes completely. You stop being valued like a crypto infrastructure operator. You start being valued like an AI infrastructure platform. That is the possible inflection point for Soluna.
The CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink, admits that the trillions of dollars being used to build data centers and power grids will come from ordinary people’s savings accounts and pension funds, and says it is mandatory. He says America needs trillions in AI infrastructure spending, and that people will be forced to “invest” in it. “Much of this will come from savings accounts and pension accounts.”
