Bit Boring Peter 🕊️☦️Ꚙ🔻🖤😷💉💉💉💉

My UK 2022 Covid expectations. "Hostage to Fortune" time. I predict, based on my perceptions, UK 2022 excess death toll will be in the range of 30K-50K. The measure of my "rightness" will be the published actuaries.org.uk numbers (in Jan 2023) 1/4

I had doubts whether this was real ... So I checked the Guardian, and found it was. (last letter in those listed, when I checked at c. 18:25 GMT Tuesday 20th February 2024) Chapeau, Terry! theguardian.com/society/2024/f…

@PaulTempleman6 Compared to a 'very large' recession, obviously. Or should that be a 'very small' recession compared to a 'very tall' recession?

@UseBy2022 @mvankerkhove I might add that JN.1.7* may already be at, past, or approaching, the 5% of cases that some folks seem to think is important. Speculatively add on 10 days or so of samples not all yet sequenced and uploaded, and it looks even worse. ukcovid.xyz/variant-landsc… cov-spectrum.org/explore/United…

@UseBy2022 @mvankerkhove It seems to my uneducated mind that: - No more than about 5% of UK folks have Covid currently (probably half that) - Have even 50% of UK had Covid in the last 6 months? - Vaccines do not 100% stop infection (I am living proof, right now🤣) => plenty of room for JN.1.7* to thrive

@BristOliver My first port of call would be to have a look at how often the ONS alters its Excess Death methodology, and at how often the ONS makes (what some might see as large) adjustments to the stratified population data. I speculate it happens following a census (10 yearly) or more.

MP apparently "on the take" loses appeal to finding that said he was likely "on the take". My local MP may be a spineless brown-noser, but, so far, he has shown more sense than to be apparently involved in lifestyle or corruption "incidents" [MPs selling influence is corruption]

@jazzaoxon But, but, but, they gotta clear that level on Candy Crush. To be fair, most MPs are not the the main chamber most of the time, so they can play Candy Crush more discreetly. Gotta get your priorities right. /s

Tory MPs and their mobile phones are worse than school kids mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…

@gwladwr Because they have been repeatedly told (directly and indirectly) it's all over? Looks like a failure in Public Health Messaging to me. [I am trusting that it is not "but I am all right, Jack"].

Why have only around one third of frontline health and social care workers in Wales accepted the current offer of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination?

So now I am in the "avoid people for 5 days, if possible" phase. So I will. I am early retired, and because we hold "contingency supplies" of most stuff, I can avoid going to the supermarket and I have no "workplace" to attend anyway. No law against decency. Do unto others etc.

Given that my spouse was away, I do not think I could have caught it from her before the 13th Feb (when she came back). In Autumn/Winter it is hard to tell if vague signs mean much, but yesterday evening I started to get some "proper" symptoms. Exposure to Positive = 5 days.

My UK 2022 Covid expectations. "Hostage to Fortune" time. I predict, based on my perceptions, UK 2022 excess death toll will be in the range of 30K-50K. The measure of my "rightness" will be the published actuaries.org.uk numbers (in Jan 2023) 1/4

I glad that it passes a few miles away from my small house and very small garden! I think the count is now 4 sinkholes. Dirty great holes appearing randomly, like some demented video game. (Why does "Lemmings" seem apposite?) bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…

Rather close to me. Half a railway, at double the cost, connecting the wrong two stations in London and Birmingham, via the wrong route and built to the wrong loading gauge. But at least it passes the other side of town from me. Small mercies.☦️