Peter Törngren

Many still underestimate how transformative oral obesity drugs could become. Easier for patients, easier to scale, easier for primary care. Over the next few years, oral GLP-1s may reshape the entire obesity market for both $NVO and $LLY.

@prosperousguy We will know by time… VKTX is interesting for many companies indeed.

@peter_torngren Maybe Because $NVO is doing well with Wegovy, that $LLY crushes their hopes with a crazy offer for $VKTX and leaves $NVO management with their fingers up their butt again (Losing $MTSR to $PFE)

Oral Wegovy keeps pulling away from Foundayo. Week-by-week TRx gap: 1,681 → 14,703 → 20,497 → 21,180 → 27,972. That’s 5 straight weeks of widening dominance with the latest jump (+6,792 TRx) being the biggest yet. Momentum matters. $NVO $LLY

Novo Nordisk $NVO : The Market Is Still Missing The Point And Q1 Could Prove It Novo Nordisk $NVO has already rewarded patience. Since my last bullish stance, the stock has materially outperformed the broader market, and yet, I don’t think the core thesis has even begun to fully play out. What we’re seeing right now is a classic case of the market focusing on surface-level headwinds while ignoring a deeper structural transition that, in my view, strengthens Novo’s long-term positioning rather than weakens it. With Q1 earnings around the corner, the setup is interesting not because of the numbers themselves, but because of what management signals about the next phase of this business. Let’s break it down. The Real Story: A Business In Transition, Not Decline If you just scan headlines, you’ll see concerns around pricing pressure, patent expirations, and guidance cuts. That narrative sounds familiar and frankly, a bit lazy. Because underneath that, Novo is doing something far more important: it is shifting from a price-maximization model to a volume-dominant model. That transition is painful in the short term. Margins compress, guidance comes down, and sentiment weakens. But strategically, it’s exactly what a company with Novo’s scale should be doing. Think about it this way: You don’t build a global obesity and diabetes franchise by optimizing for peak pricing in a handful of markets. You do it by driving global penetration at scale, even if it means lower prices. And Novo is already positioning itself for that world. Recent Developments: More Than Just Headlines There have been several key developments since the last quarter, and each one tells a piece of the bigger story. 1. Pipeline Execution Is Still Strong The approvals of Wegovy HD and Awiqli are not just incremental wins. 🔹Wegovy HD closing the efficacy gap with competitors matters more than the market is pricing in. A ~20% weight loss puts it firmly in the top tier. 🔹Awiqli, as a once-weekly insulin, is a quiet but important extension it strengthens Novo’s diabetes franchise in a category that had limited innovation. This is what consistency looks like. Even during a transition phase, they’re still executing clinically. 2. Patent Expirations: A Headwind But Also A Signal Yes, semaglutide patents are expiring across key international markets. And yes, generics are already entering aggressively in places like China and India. But here’s the part the market is missing: This isn’t just erosion. It’s market expansion. Lower-cost generics will increase access, grow the overall GLP-1 user base, and normalize treatment globally. Novo may lose pricing power in certain regions, but it benefits from category creation at scale, especially where it still maintains brand dominance. In other words, they’re trading short-term exclusivity for long-term market size. That’s not necessarily bearish. 3. The OpenAI Partnership: Not Optional Necessary The partnership with OpenAI is being framed as innovation. I see it differently. It’s operational survival in a volume-driven world. When pricing compresses, your margin structure depends on efficiency. And Novo is preparing for that reality by embedding AI into: 🔹Manufacturing optimization 🔹Predictive maintenance 🔹Supply chain independence (especially post-Catalent integration) This is not a “nice-to-have” initiative. It’s what allows Novo to protect margins while scaling volume globally. Q1 Earnings: What Actually Matters The headline numbers will matter less than the underlying signals. Here’s what I’ll be watching closely. US Pricing vs Volume: The Core Debate The MFN pricing impact has already reset expectations. Now the question is simple: Can Novo offset lower prices with higher volumes? 🔹Medicare pricing at ~$245/month 🔹DTC channels around ~$350 🔹Promotional pricing pushing even lower This is the test case for the entire strategy. If management shows high-teens volume growth, it validates the transition model. If not, the market will question whether price compression is outpacing demand expansion. This is the single most important variable in the quarter. Oral Wegovy: Early Signals Look Strong The early prescription data for oral Wegovy is unusually strong. If Q1 shows even a modest revenue contribution in the DKK 3–5B range, it confirms something important: This is not just a product extension it’s a market expansion lever. Oral formulations remove a key barrier to adoption. And if margins are structurally better than injectables, this could quietly become one of Novo’s highest-quality revenue streams. Guidance: The Real Catalyst The previous guidance reset did the damage. Now it’s about direction. 🔹A tightening of the range would suggest visibility has improved 🔹A widening or further cut would reinforce uncertainty Given that management now has full visibility into Q1 trends and early launch data, any positive adjustment would carry significant weight.

$NVO Novo Nordisk may be one of the most underestimated platform stories in healthcare: injectable + oral semaglutide (Oral Wegovy pill), obesity, diabetes (Ozempic pill), CV risk, kidney data and next-gen incretins. This is no longer one drug. It’s a cardiometabolic ecosystem.

Link to article: finance.yahoo.com/news/novo-nord…

$NVO Nordisk continues to strengthen the obesity story. New high-dose Wegovy (7.2mg) data showed up to 27.7% weight loss in early responders, with most weight loss coming from fat mass while preserving muscle health. The GLP-1 market still looks massively underpenetrated.

New ECO 2026 data from $NVO showed substantial weight loss across menopausal stages with investigational semaglutide 7.2 mg in the STEP UP analysis. Premenopausal women achieved an average 22.6% body weight reduction at week 72, with 41.4% reaching ≥25% weight loss. #obesity

@Stonkinvestor_ Ja det är tyvärr så. Marknaden laggar mycket och har inte riktigt förstått hur bra medicin som Novo har tagit fram. Det är imponerande siffror men det är framförallt låga bieffekter, tolererbarhet och bra muskelmassa som kommer att bli mer och mer intressant med tiden.

@peter_torngren Bra data, plus/minus 0. Dålig data, -15%.

Novo Nordisk continues to raise the bar in obesity care. STEP UP data showed up to 27.7% weight loss with Wegovy 7.2 mg over 72 weeks, while preserving muscle function and reducing fat mass. Strong efficacy + scalable oral/injectable ecosystem = long-term potential for $NVO. $LLY

@JCanNuSH Yes i saw it now. You’re right and thank you for pointing that out. The overall mean weight loss was 20.7%; the 27.7% figure refers to early responders/subgroup data. Still amazing Numbers even if it is not for the whole population.

@peter_torngren But your graphic says in big numbers that the mean loss in STEP UP was 27.7%. That’s definitely incorrect.

@JCanNuSH It’s still the best result we’ve seen, and what’s more, it has few side effects and preserves 84% of muscle mass. This poses a major problem for other competitors, which result in greater muscle loss and more significant side effects.

@peter_torngren No. That 27.7% is just among the fast responders. Average (excluding discontinuations) was 20.7%, and the average among the other participants (the other 73% of patients) was a much lower 15.4%.

The market is slowly realizing oral obesity drugs may expand the entire GLP-1 market — not just shift patients between companies. Oral Wegovy’s early launch momentum still looks significantly stronger than Foundayo, which remains a positive signal for $NVO long term.

Summary in one picture of text written by @investseekers. Please read the full analysis. It highlights several developments that could support a major upward revaluation for Novo Nordisk. The oral Wegovy pill is a huge success. Q2 and after will be very strong.

@investseekers A summary in one picture of your text above.

@Tsjgreen Att flytta fokus är definitivt ett sätt som han är bra på. Gör han något som misslyckas eller inte många inte gillar så kan han plötsligt hitta på något annat, exempelvis UFO. Antagligen för att han har ett annat syfte som är mycket viktigare.

@Tsjgreen Å andra sidan om de har en förmåga att resa hit så är deras teknik, intelligens och sätt att färdas lång mycket mer avancerad än vad vi kan förstå idag. Allt är möjligt men ska inte avfärdas heller även om vi tycker det verkar vara extremt svårt att ta in.

Early prescription data continues to highlight Novo Nordisk’s strong first-mover advantage in the oral obesity market. Oral Wegovy reached 28,515 prescriptions by Week 4, nearly 4x higher than Lilly’s Foundayo at 7,335. $NVO $LLY #obesity

$NVO Novo Nordisk beats expectations and raises guidance. Wegovy demand remains explosive, oral GLP-1 scaling fast, and the market still underestimates Novo’s long-term obesity dominance. 🚀 #NVO #NovoNordisk #Wegovy #GLP1