pavel k. 🇨🇭

from crypto on a leash to markets on the blockchain exciting change of attitude

@mcuban @StevenMCole2 @DrDiGiorgio @grok Look up how and when Canada got there and how they budget and pay for it. Then ask how you would transition our system to their approach

@StevenMCole2 @DrDiGiorgio Look up how and when Canada got there and how they budget and pay for it. Then ask how you would transition our system to their approach

Mark, you are getting close to understanding why single payer cannot work. But I fundamentally disagree with the idea that we could ever just "know" costs well enough to make it work. Hayek was right about this. The relevant knowledge is too dispersed, too local, and too dynamic to ever be gathered and priced correctly by central planners. Take basketball. Imagine single payer basketball. The government is the only purchaser of basketball entertainment in all its forms. Fans are not allowed to just buy a ticket to the Mavs game. Instead, a central office decides who gets to attend and hands out tickets based on "need." The central planners also handle the TV deals, merchandising, concessions, and every other revenue stream. Everything goes through the government, with no out of pocket cost to any consumer. Now teams no longer compete for fans on price, experience, convenience, or innovation. They submit cost reports to Washington explaining what it allegedly costs to run a game. But here is the problem. If there is no market price for tickets, media rights, parking, merchandise, or concessions, how exactly do you decide what the game is worth? How do you decide what players should be paid? How do you know whether a courtside seat is underpriced, overpriced, or priced just right? You do not. You are guessing. So bureaucrats step in and decide the approved reimbursement for a regular season game, a playoff game, courtside access, halftime entertainment, parking, and concessions. What happens next? If the approved rates are too low, teams do not magically become leaner and more innovative. They cut where fans can feel it. Fewer games. Worse arenas. Less staff. Delayed upgrades. Lower quality. Longer waits. Less access. Maybe smaller market teams shut down altogether. If the approved rates are too high, you do not get efficiency either. You get lobbying. Every team hires consultants to prove that its fan base is poorer, sicker, more rural, more complex, or otherwise deserving of special payment adjustments. Soon the league is no longer about basketball. It is about coding, compliance, modifiers, subsidies, carveouts, and political influence. Teams make money not by pleasing fans, but by persuading Washington that their costs are uniquely deserving of reimbursement. And once government is the only buyer, there is no real price discovery left. There is only political bargaining disguised as pricing. The Knicks get one deal. Rural teams get another. Old arenas get subsidies. Favored constituencies get carveouts. Every interest group insists that without one more special adjustment the whole sport will collapse. Fans are told this is fair because nobody has to pay at the gate. But of course they still pay. They pay through taxes. They pay through rationing. They pay through fewer choices. They pay in lower quality. They pay by being told which arena they can use, which game they qualify for, and how long they have to wait. That is the key point. Knowing the accounting cost of hosting a basketball game does not tell you the right price of a ticket. Price is not cost. Price emerges from supply, demand, scarcity, quality, preference, and competition. A central planner can know what it "costs" to turn on the lights, pay security, and clean the arena. That still tells him nothing about what a seat is worth to fans, what kind of experience teams should offer, which franchises are efficient, or where new arenas should be built. Healthcare is even less suited to central planning than basketball. It is more heterogeneous, more personal, more local, and far more dependent on dispersed knowledge. The fantasy is always the same: if only the people at the top had better data, they could set the right prices. No, they could not. They would still be guessing, just with nicer spreadsheets.

@edanilov Paul Graham is reading your tweets

Me explaining the intuitive UX of a new feature to users

tradwork vs vibing through your job

@Only1temmy ....BECAUSE MOSTLY IT DOESNT WORK

I COULD NOT BELIEVE IT MYSELF GUYS BUT ACTUAL USERS DONT CARE IF YOU ARE USING PoW, PoS, DPoS, zkSNARKs, zkSTARKs, ERC-20, BEP-20, AMM, CLMM, UTXO, L1, L2, ROLLUPS, SHARDING OR PLASMA THEY JUST WANT IT TO WORK

I've operated in three currency collapse environments the flight pattern is always the same: gold and dollars stablecoins are just the latest tech representing those two ..but interesting to see how they would survive the next one, especially the USD-based ones

i am dumb again

I ran and negotiated for large headcount across different geo and us medical insurance is a outright scam the coverage they provide is a fraction of what you can expect from basic government-mandated health insurance here in Switzerland and Switzerland is the most expensive country of the west with lowest taxes possible

@mcuban We spend $30k to $45k per employee family per year, plus $6k HRA to cover their out-of-pocket maximum so they never have to pay a bill. It's insanely expensive but worth it for top talent

I don’t think people realize how much healthcare costs are driving big companies to fire and not hire. It costs them $30k per family, per year for premiums and care. Most of that goes to the massive, vertically integrated insurance companies that send weekly bills that no one reviews in details. And it doesn’t include the company overhead to deal with it all. It’s usually the 2nd largest expense after payroll. Which is insane It’s far easier to blame AI than it is to blame Healthcare costs. Want to increase jobs, wages and improve affordability for every American ? Break up the biggest insurance companies. Make divest non insurance companies. They don’t need thousands of subsidiaries. That’s how they game and abuse the system and increase costs for all of us. Call your senator and tell them to support the BreakUp Big Medicine Bill by @HawleyMO and @SenWarren.

@Austin_Federa but they compare apples to oranges approved budget means that you can start spending the money final cost is that something to pop later in court (if it's small enough and someone is to be convicted) or in congress hearing (if everyone is getting away with it)

wait until the Not In Moon Back Yard crowd hears about this

classic lapse of logic approved budget means that you can start spending the money final cost is that something to pop later in court (if it's small enough and someone is to be convicted) or in congress hearing (if everyone is getting away with it)

merch alert

any philosophical, ethical, or moral dilemma has a third option that solves it all you need is less liberal arts and more engineers on it

now as twitter close the borders, two things to clarify: 1/ which country is CT? 2/ @mert is cooked

companies investing in compliance infrastructure now will absorb the users from the ones who didn't when regulations tighten. and they will tighten. everywhere

the real cost of multi-jurisdiction isn't legal fees — it's organizational complexity. each entity needs its own compliance officer, its own board, its own reporting regulatory arbitrage sounds smart until you're managing 6 entities across 4 time zones

no single jurisdiction on earth lets you run custody + trading + perps + prediction markets + stablecoins under one license multi-jurisdiction is not a strategy, it's a hook, line, and sinker

while everyone is after circle stock crash, we are adding a bit more utility for it now your self-custody in Wallet in Telegram makes your withdrawals to any blockchain as easy as possible with auto conversion of USDT and USDC