@Cointelegraph right once famously, wrong consistently on the “imminent bigger crash” calls for 15+ years.
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phyco pickle 343
110 posts
🚨 LATEST: Peter Schiff warns that rising inflation-driven housing costs could trigger a real estate crash worse than 2008, citing a sharp drop in mortgage and refinance applications.
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Bitcoin has an identical market structure to the 2022 bear market bottom I called at $15,000
Strap in.
Crypto Michael@MichaelXBT
#Bitcoin has bottomed here at $15.4k
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STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks.
The global semiconductor industry is expected to hit $975 billion in sales this year. A historic peak. Revenue growth north of 25%.
Every cycle peak sounds the same: this boom is STRUCTURAL, not cyclical. AI demand is permanent. The old rules don't apply.
"It's different this time," they say.
I've heard those 4 words more times than any others in 45 years on Wall Street. They're always wrong.
Here's how I think about it:
When any industry generates obscene profits, capital floods in to compete those profits away.
The higher the margins, the faster it happens.
Semiconductor margins right now are at levels that would make a drug cartel blush.
Look at Micron. The crowd says it's "cheap" because the PE looks low.
Except Micron's price-to-book ratio sits at roughly 7x. The 10-year median is 1.86x. The historical floor is 0.81x.
That's not cheap. That's the most expensive this stock has EVER been relative to its asset base - dressed up in a low PE because earnings are wildly above trend.
This is the oldest trap in cyclical investing.
You see it in shipping. You see it in commodities. Earnings spike, multiples look compressed, everyone piles in. Then the cycle rolls over and those "cheap" earnings disappear.
Now layer on the bigger picture:
New capacity is already being announced across the industry.
The hyperscalers alone - Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta - plan to pour $600-700 BILLION into AI infrastructure this year. That's 70%+ more than 2025.
They're consuming roughly 90% of their operating cash flow on capex. Borrowing north of $400 billion to cover the rest.
Nobody can afford to stop spending because everyone else keeps spending. It's mutually assured destruction with better PR.
And historically, the companies that spend the MOST on capex deliver the WORST stock returns.
BCA Research just argued AI threatens all 3 pillars of Big Tech profitability;
1. Economies of scale
2. Network effects
3. Proprietary tech
Goldman Sachs compared software stocks to NEWSPAPERS in the early 2000s. The group that fell 95%.
Software is now underperforming the Nasdaq by the widest margin this century.
Meanwhile, the rotation I've been positioning for is already underway:
Most MAG 7 names are DOWN year to date. Emerging markets are up. Energy is up. Gold miners are up.
Last year, the EM ETF returned roughly DOUBLE the S&P. This isn't starting. It's been happening since 2024.
So my framework is simple:
Valuation doesn't matter in the short run.
But the longer you go out, the more it matters.
And money ain't free anymore.
When capital was free, pigs flew. Unprofitable companies soared. Narrative crushed fundamentals.
That era is OVER.
The 60/40 portfolio hedges against recession. But recession isn't the risk. The risk is continued money printing, persistent inflation, and higher real rates.
Bonds don't protect you from that. Gold does. Energy does. Real assets do.
You don't need to get clever here. Just avoid what's overpriced and own what's cheap.
The regime is changing. The market's scorecard already tells you that every single day.
Are you listening?
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@JoshMandell6 @intocryptoverse @JoeCarlasare Bens balls grew bigger with nailing the bear cycle. He smoked all moonboys
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@intocryptoverse @JoeCarlasare pick on somebody your own size, Ben, sheesh
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remember that there are tons of folks who sold bitcoin, incurred a taxable event, and are hoping and praying for the price to drop.
If it doesn’t, they will fomo back in (likely higher than they sold) and end up with fewer bitcoin
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Here are 5 key ideas from Raoul Pal's "The Universal Code" for investors:
1. Universal laws link macroeconomics, physics, and consciousness, viewing economies as energy-to-intelligence converters.
2. Coherence drives exponential growth; invest in aligned systems like AI and Web3 for high returns.
3. Demographics and debt cycles predict market shifts—watch liquidity for opportunities.
4. The exponential age accelerates tech adoption; position in crypto and innovation for long-term gains.
5. Embrace uncomfortable paradigm shifts to navigate volatility and capitalize on interconnected global trends.
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I think Bitcoin topped at $126,000 this cycle.
What do you guys think?
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@intocryptoverse If you are wrong ct will be shitting on you for long time.
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This year, there has been a strong pivot to using the ISM to predict where the price of Bitcoin will go, especially after many of the supercycle narratives coming into this year seem to have failed.
I want to show a clear example of why the ISM does not *necessarily* have to impact the price of Bitcoin.
First, let us take a look at 2014, which was a midterm year, and also a bear market for BTC.
Jan 2014
ISM: 52.5
BTC Price: $737
Dec 2014
ISM: 55.7
BTC Price: $302
So the ISM went *up* from 52.5 to 55.7 in 2014, but BTC went down from $737 to $302.
Imagine watching the ISM each month in 2014 and seeing it go higher, but then watching the price of BTC go lower. It must have been maddening (if anyone was doing that back then, but I imagine most people were not looking at these two things together).
Now let's look at 2015. The bear market ended in January 2015.
Jan 2015
ISM: 54
BTC Price: $322
Dec 2014
ISM: 48.8
BTC Price: $429
So the ISM went *down* in 2015, but the price of BTC went up.
If you used the ISM to tell you where BTC was going to go in 2014, you would have assumed BTC would have gone up in value because the ISM was going up. But in fact the opposite happened.
If you used the ISM to tell you were BTC was going to go in 2015, you would have assumed that because ISM was dropping, BTC was also dropping. But in fact the opposite happened.
A single data point does not make a trend.
But relying on a single indicator like the ISM to predict the price action of BTC in order to confirm a supercycle does not seem to be a wise decision either.
There are absolutely scenarios where they could both go up or both go down together in 2026 (as they have many times), but I think it would be unwise to rely on this single indicator to tell you where the price of BTC was going to go.
What is interesting is this:
The ISM in Jan 2014 was 52.5.
The ISM in Jan 2026 was 52.6.
There exists a scenario where the ISM goes up in 2026 (like it did in 2014), but the price of BTC still goes down.
In fact, I would argue that the more likely scenario is that 2026 is a red year for BTC while the ISM goes up, exactly like how it played out more than a decade ago.
I hope that the people using the ISM to bet on a supercycle can view this post as educational and not trying to attack anyone.
I have just seen a lot of people lose a lot of money relying on single economic indicators, and sometimes the price action of risk assets like BTC does not always make sense when compared to what is actually going on in the economy.
As the famous saying goes, "the stock market is not the economy."
But in this case we can say "Bitcoin is not the economy."
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Very interesting to see how crypto accounts have pivoted to shilling Silver
Good sentiment indicator
(Ps, I still like the metals trade)
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@MitchellAskew @kale_abe Eth was up 3x from low to high last year.Crypto ppl will never stop complaining
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Still struggling very hard to reconcile a few basic facts
- everything is 10x more expensive AND 10x shittier in the span of like 5 years
- it literally feels like hyperinflation everywhere you go
- gold is reflecting that
- silver is reflecting that
- stocks are reflecting that
- BTC doesn’t care?
Isn’t this LITERALLY what BTC was made for???
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Buy a phone worth of $500
Get airdrops worth of $5,000
Only possible in crypto!
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We are at BTC 95K, which is "1 Luke Groman" (1 LG)
I look forward to reaching 2 LG this year.
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@AndreasSteno @barkmeta Bro he's sarcastic. Dont be so serious
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