Polymarket Intel

Iranian media: A car bomb reportedly exploded near a security checkpoint on Imam Khomeini Street in Tehran.

Ukraine and Norway signed a defense partnership declaration.

NEW 🔴 U.S. conditions for resuming Iran talks in Pakistan: 1. Full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz before talks begin. 2. The Iranian delegation must have IRGC authority to cut a deal. Israel Hayom.

The White House says 103 empty tankers are heading to U.S. ports to load oil. - CBS News

JUST IN 🔴 Zero vessels left Iranian ports on the first day of the U.S. blockade. Six merchant ships turned back after American warnings. No enforcement actions were needed. Strait of Hormuz traffic continued with 20+ vessels passing through. - WSJ

Browder: Hungarians turned this into a referendum on Europe and Putin. In Budapest they chanted “Russians go home.” It is a landslide victory for the West and the EU, and a landslide defeat for Putin.

JUST IN 🔴 Europe is preparing a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after the war ends, led by France and the U.K. without U.S. involvement. The mission would exclude countries directly involved in the conflict, the U.S., Israel, and Iran, to make it more acceptable to Tehran. - WSJ

Browder: Orban’s loss is a major body blow to Putin. Orban was Putin’s guy inside the EU, using unanimity to block tough policy on Russia and the €90B Ukraine loan. With Peter Magyar saying he will not block that loan, Putin loses a valuable tool.

Explosion near a gunpowder factory in Kazan, Russia.

The U.S. warned China, the UAE, and others on Iranian banking after intelligence showed more than $9 billion in illicit transactions in 2024 alone. - NBC

Over 20 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, according to the Wall Street Journal.

US Official: Navy not escorting any ships through the strait. Communicated to merchant vessels that have not entered or exited Iranian ports it's safe to pass and encouraging them to do so - CNN.

The U.S. will allow its temporary sanctions waiver on Iranian oil at sea to expire this week, two U.S. officials said.

Israeli Ambassador to US: The Lebanese government made clear it will no longer be occupied by Hezbollah.

Senate Republican Leader Thune: Most of us feel good about US achievements in Iran.

Trump administration eases Venezuela sanctions, allowing state banks including the central bank to use U.S. dollars and reconnect with the global financial system. Axios.

Russia's Su-57 production may have halted after an April 11 fire destroyed a facility producing stealth-critical composite parts at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant. - Defense Blog

CENTCOM: More than 10,000 U.S. Sailors, Marines, and Airmen along with over a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft are executing the mission to blockade ships entering and departing Iranian ports. During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade and 6 merchant vessels complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman. The blockade is being enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. U.S. forces are supporting freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

Iranian Shahed drone strikes the Surdash camp in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq. The camp is home to the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan and other Kurdish opposition groups.

Trump to NY Post: "Something could be happening over the next two days. We're more inclined to go Pakistan. You should stay there, really. Why should we go to some country that has nothing to do with it? The field marshal is doing a great job. He's fantastic. He's doing a great job, that's why it's more likely."