Polymath Investor

A few weeks ago, I collaborated with Eva Keiffenheim MSc where we discussed deliberate practice and, specifically, how to apply these principles to investing. Below are a few examples of how to use this powerful approach to the craft of investing. *Deliberate practice was formally introduced by Anders Ericsson and his colleagues in their seminal 1993 paper, “The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance.”

5/5

4/5

Almost a year ago, I wrote this short article on how some of the greatest minds in history used pen and paper to generate an endless flow of creative ideas, and how this process can be useful for investors. Several notebooks and many thousands of words later, I still think it’s the best way to approach any cognitive endeavor: good old pen and paper. 1/5

@aleabitoreddit Iran now playing in markets as well, probably some Iranian proxy made a fortune with options before the headline 😂

I guess the share price is in “sell the news” mode… but wow, Micron’s results for a company that size, it’s definitely something you don’t see every day (no position here). These chokepoint/bottleneck situations are really interesting. Talk about pricing power… Some notes from today’s earnings below: -Revenue came in at $23.86 billion. The street was expecting about $20 billion, and Micron themselves had guided for roughly $18.7 billion. So they blew past their own forecast by nearly 28%, a couple extra (b)illions! -Earnings per share landed at $12.20, which is 31% above what analysts had penciled in. I guess buy-side "whisper number" was somewhere around $9.50 by what I read. Micron cleared that by a wide margin too. -What’s interesting here; the growth was almost entirely driven by pricing, not volume. DRAM bit shipments only grew mid-single digits quarter over quarter. NAND, same story, low single digits. But average selling prices for DRAM jumped in the mid-60s percentage range, and NAND prices surged in the high-70s. -Gross margins hit 74.9%, nearly doubling from a year ago. These are software company margins, right? -Now, the guidance for next quarter : they are projecting $33.5 billion in revenue for FQ3. The consensus was $23.66 billion. That is a 42% gap. Earnings guidance of $19.15 per share versus the street at $11.29…a 70% gap. Gross margins expected around 81%. Mehrotra made a point of noting that this single quarter of revenue guidance exceeds every full fiscal year in Micron's history through 2024. -What is driving all of this? Three things working together. First, AI has changed the demand profile for memory. Data center DRAM and NAND are now exceeding 50% of the total industry market for the first time. Second, supply is obviously constrained. Third, Micron specifically said demand is significantly exceeding supply "for the foreseeable future.", so not a short term thing according to them. -Capital spending is ramping hard too. Fiscal 2026 capex is now guided above $25 billion, up from roughly $20 billion last quarter. And FY2027 construction-related capex is expected to increase by over $10 billion year over year. They acquired Powerchip's Tongluo fab in Taiwan ahead of schedule, broke ground on a new NAND fab in Singapore, started commercial shipments from India, and are progressing on fabs in Idaho and New York. A wave of price target upgrades over the next few days coming…

@ShrikrushnaNad3 hey, not a book, just a pdf

@polymathinvest1 What is name this book?

Re-sharing a shortened cut of the piece: practical frameworks, mental models, and heuristics on "how to understand anything". [1/6]

5/5

4/5

We are entering the golden age of the solopreneur. New piece on the levers of the modern world (and how to use them). 1/5

@KrissBergTweets Thanks Kriss 🙏🏼

2/2

Found some good insights in this roundup article on historical base rates for oil in Middle East conflicts. 1/2

@tefanisVan04I76 Nope, but thanks for the heads up 🙏 I’ll check it out

@polymathinvest1 could give nice leverage if the 800G/1.6T ramp accelerates. Not pure upstream, but a strong adjacent name. Adding to watchlist 🤔📡 Are you on the official Telegram channel? Search for ALEABITOREDDITA on Telegram and thank me later. I’ve been following the channel for a while now

$AAOI's 10x projected rev surge in optical transceiver demand by 2027 for $4.3B ARR off a $5.5B MC... Is enormous. $LITE and $COHR might be crowded, but. We'll likely see rotation upstream like: $ASML-type suppliers: - Aixtron (ETR: AIXA): ~75% share for inp MOCVD - $VECO - MOCVD and MBE (Molecular Beam Epitaxy) systems, probably second. - Oxford Instruments: Supplier to $AAOI and $COHR for plasma etch and deposition systems Merchant Epiwafer Fabs (Foundaries for photonics): - $IQE: largest outsourced compound semiconductor epiwafer manufacturer. Basically $TSM of photonics world but lot of legacy drag. - LandMark Optoelectronics: Most direct, pure-play for optical transceiver unit growth - IntelliEPI (TPE: 2462): MBE rather than MOCVD to create high-performance InP epiwafers Raw Substrate Suppliers (base materials): - $AXTI/ Sumitomo : everyone knows by now Transceiver ramp projections is staggering, and this is only 2027. It's likely exponentially increasing into 2028. $AAOI's record-breaking earnings signals the start of a new paradigm for photonics, it's a great idea to get exposure.