popsic

health, security, personal growth are areas where people are willing to invest time and attention in exchange for meaningful improvement. These domains also generate the rich, personal data that enables AI systems to become truly personalized over time.

AI 的下一阶段，不在实验室里。 在电网里、在审批桌上、在主权基金的会客厅里。

对普通人有什么影响？三件事会更明显： 默认助手（比如 Siri）会“真的能办事” AI 硬件化加速（眼镜/陪护/可穿戴） AI 公司更频繁出现在政治新闻里（因为争的是电/许可/资本）

一个被低估的大趋势：AI 公司正在“半政府化”。 不再像传统互联网公司那样“发 App→拉用户→卖广告”。 而是越来越像在做国家级工程。

We are moving from "Atom Logic" to "Bit Logic." The future belongs to the "Compilers" of the physical world.

For 100 years, we gave machines a soul (software). For the next 50, we are giving software a body (hardware). The smartphone was just the beta test for how we will build the entire physical world.

leverage through uncertainty: regulators making the asset “compliance-contested” can reprice risk and slow future transactions. The “demo effect” point is high-signal: the real target is the playbook (“move first, sell later”), not necessarily Manus itself.

The tension is obvious: milestone or endgame signal? As “general agents” get more compute- and infra-intensive, the endgame looks like a Big Tech scale war. For startups, PMF may increasingly mean: “you become a platform module.”

The overlooked point: Meta didn’t buy “an Agent.” It bought a delivery system: task decomposition, recovery, permissions, browser/local environments, eval + regression loops. The moat isn’t the demo. It’s the SOP.

The most shocking AI “blitzkrieg” of 2025 wasn’t a model launch — it was Meta buying Manus. Not buying a product. Buying an operating system for delivery: productized agent execution + subscription ARR + real task traces. Models set ceilings. Delivery wins markets.

@mattturck You just never know.

Just realizing that, Social Capital excepted, traditional Silicon Valley venture royalty entirely missed Groq. It’s the 2nd biggest acquisition of a private company of the last 10 years after Wiz and the investors are crossovers, strategics, Europeans, etc You just never know.