Pragnaa By JB

Pragnaa seeks to bridge the gap in Sri Lanka's investment market by delivering unique, actionable insights rooted in high-quality, in-depth research, all crafted through a rigorous and integrity-centered process. #pragnaabyjb #insightsbypragnaa #StockMarkets #FinancialLiteracy

Monthly Primary Surplus - January 2026 Monthly Performance ⚪ Revenue expanded by 35.3% YoY, supported by both tax and non-tax inflows. ⚪ Expenditure accelerated marginally, reflecting a slight increase in capital spending and recurrent outlays. ⚪ The month recorded a fiscal deficit of LKR 3.81 Bn, narrowing the deficit seen in December. #pragnaabyjb #insightbypragnaa #monthlyfiscalupdate #srilankaeconomy #publicfinance #macroinsights

The fiscal balance deficit narrowed in January 2026. Click the link below to check out the full Fiscal update as of January 2026 by JB Securities. linkedin.com/feed/update/ur… Key Takeaways - ⚪ In January, the budget deficit narrowed, recording a shortfall of LKR 3.8 billion, following a deficit of LKR 419.3 billion in December. ⚪ Government revenue rose by 35.3% YoY to LKR 468.8 billion, driven largely by robust tax collections totaling LKR 434.2 billion. ⚪ Total expenditure rose modestly by 1.4% YoY to LKR 472.6 billion, including interest payments of LKR 226.6 billion. ⚪ The primary balance recorded a surplus of LKR 222.8 billion, marking a turnaround from the first primary shortfall observed in 2025. #pragnaabyjb #insightsbypragnaa #SriLankaInflation #CCPI #EconomicUpdate #InflationTrends #InvestmentInsights

CCPI inflation is expected to accelerate in April. Click the link below to check out the full Inflation Outlook report by JB Securities. linkedin.com/feed/update/ur… Key Takeaways - ⚪ Headline CCPI inflation increased to 2.2% YoY in March 2026, supported by a rise in both food inflation (0.7% YoY) and non-food inflation (2.9% YoY). ⚪ Within non-food categories, Housing & Utilities inflation remained elevated at 3.3% YoY, while Transport inflation reverted to positive territory at 0.8% YoY, marking the end of the recent deflationary trend. ⚪ On a MoM basis, overall inflation rose by 0.3% in March, primarily driven by an increase in non-food prices (0.8% MoM), despite a contraction in food prices (-0.8% MoM). ⚪ Looking ahead, CCPI inflation is projected to average 3.6% YoY (±1.5%) in April, remaining below the 5.0% target, supported by food inflation of 1.9% YoY (±1.5%) and relatively elevated non-food inflation of 4.4% YoY (±1.5%). #pragnaabyjb #insightsbypragnaa #SriLankaInflation #CCPI #EconomicUpdate #InflationTrends #InvestmentInsights

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Sri Lanka Inflation – March 2026 Inflationary pressures increased. Headline Inflation: +2.2% YoY Non-Food Inflation: +2.9% YoY ▫ Housing & Utilities: +3.3% ▫ Transport: 0.8% Food Inflation: +0.7% YoY Sector Highlights YoY: Transport sector moved back into positive territory, while housing & utilities continued to show steady upward momentum. MoM: Non-food inflation increased compared to the previous month, while food inflation continued its declining trend. Core Inflation (excl. Housing & Transport): +3.6% YoY, indicating persistent underlying demand pressures. #pragnaabyjb #insightsbypragnaa #SriLankaEconomy #CCPI #EconomicUpdate #InflationTrends #InvestmentInsights

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Sri Lanka’s economy grew by 5.0% in 2025, signaling a steady recovery path. Growth was largely driven by net taxes, construction, and manufacturing, highlighting the strong contribution from industrial activity and taxes to overall economic expansion. The economy is now almost back to its pre-crisis peak of 2018, remaining only 0.8% below the previous high. Meanwhile, per capita GDP increased to USD 5,000 in 2025 from USD 4,516 in 2024, reflecting a gradual improvement in economic output per person. #pragnaabyjb #insightsbypragnaa #2025 #GDP #investment #financialliteracy #SriLankaEconomy #EconomicUpdate

Sri Lanka’s economy expanded by 4.8% in Q4 2025, with taxes minus subsidies, manufacturing, and construction making the largest contribution to growth. Real GDP is now only 0.5% below its peak recorded in Q4 2017, signaling that the economy is approaching full recovery. #pragnaabyjb #insightsbypragnaa #Q42025 #GDP #investment #financialliteracy #SriLankaEconomy #EconomicUpdate

The Middle East loves its tea and Sri Lanka depends on it. ☕️ In 2025, 43.8% of Sri Lanka’s total tea export revenue came from the Middle East, a region where tea is part of daily life, making regional conflicts a real economic risk for the country. #pragnaabyjb #insightsbypragnaa #Economy #TeaExports #SriLanka #MiddleEast #TradeRisk #ExportDependency #MarketTrends #EconomicUpdate #GlobalTrade #Geopolitics #2025

Sri Lanka recorded a current account surplus of USD 369.7 Mn in January 2026, supported by strong secondary income inflows of USD 740.4 Mn and a services trade surplus of USD 406.4 Mn. Meanwhile, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed by 10.7% YoY, as export growth outpaced the modest increase in imports. External sector inflows remained resilient, with workers’ remittances reaching USD 751 Mn (+31.1% YoY) and tourism earnings recorded a USD 378 Mn, reflecting continued recovery in travel inflows in January. #pragnaabyjb #insightsbypragnaa #CurrentAccount #ExternalSector #SriLankaEconomy #Remittances #TradeBalance #EconomicUpdate

The Vehicle Import Brake? Personal vehicle imports dropped by $77M in January, now accounting for 7% of total Current Account outflows. While the $224M vehicle import bill shows a slowdown, vehicle registration numbers remain elevated. This mismatch suggests the market may be over-saturated. After the massive import surge in late 2025, showrooms are likely sitting on significant unsold inventory. The decline in new imports indicates that importers may be hitting pause to clear existing stock before bringing in more vehicles. Total vehicle imports (personal+commercial) account for about 9.6% of Current Account outflows, highlighting how large the sector became after import restrictions were lifted. There have also been reports of importers registering vehicles before sale to avoid the rule requiring vehicles to be sold within 90 days of import (or face penalties). This could partly explain why registrations remain high even as import values decline. #pragnaabyjb #insightsbypragnaa #Economy #VehicleImports #MarketTrends #January2026 #EconomicUpdate

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Sri Lanka Inflation – December 2025 Inflation holds steady. Headline Inflation: +2.1% YoY Non-Food Inflation: +1.8% YoY  ▫ Housing & Utilities: +0.1%  ▫ Transport: -0.2% Food Inflation: +3.0% YoY Sector Highlights YoY: Housing & Utilities recorded positive momentum, while Transport remained in decline, albeit at a moderated pace. MoM: Food & non alcoholic beverages saw an uptick, whereas Transport posted moderated dips. Core Inflation (excl. Housing & Transport): +3.9% YoY, indicating persistent underlying demand pressures. #pragnaabyjb #insightsbypragnaa #SriLankaEconomy #CCPI #EconomicUpdate #InflationTrends #InvestmentInsights

Sri Lanka's economy expanded by 5.4% in Q3 2025, with taxes minus subsidies, manufacturing and construction making the largest contribution to growth. However the real GDP still remains 2.8% below its Q3 2019 peak. #pragnaabyjb #insightsbypragnaa #Q32025 #GDP #investment #financialliteracy #SriLankaEconomy #EconomicUpdate

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Monthly Primary Surplus - September 2025 Cumulative Performance Revenues increased by 31.1% YoY, driven by strong tax collections. The overall deficit widened slightly to LKR 441.4 Bn. The primary surplus rose to LKR 1,465.1 Bn, surpassing the full-year target ahead of schedule. Monthly Performance Revenue expanded by 47.6% YoY, supported by both tax and non-tax inflows. Expenditure growth continued to accelerate, reflecting higher capital spending alongside increased recurrent outlays. The month recorded a fiscal deficit of LKR 30.4 Bn, reversing the surplus seen in August. #pragnaabyjb #insightbypragnaa #monthlyfiscalupdate #srilankaeconomy #publicfinance #macroinsights

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In September 2025, Sri Lanka recorded a current account deficit of USD 182.6 million, ending an eight-month streak of expansion. Despite this, the figure still reflects a 2.3% year-on-year increase. Cumulatively, the current account maintained a positive balance of USD 1.86 billion up to September. The negative balance for the month was primarily driven by a USD 414 million trade deficit, which rose 43.5% year-on-year. This widening gap was largely attributed to a surge in vehicle imports, which increased 22 times compared to last year. #pragnaabyjb #insightsbypragnaa #stockmarket #investment #financialliteracy #CurrentAccount #September #EconomicUpdate

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Sri Lanka Inflation – October 2025 Inflation sustained its upward momentum this month. Headline Inflation: +2.1% YoY Non-Food Inflation: +1.4% YoY ▫ Housing & Utilities: +0.6% ▫ Transport: -0.7% Food Inflation: +3.5% YoY Sector Highlights YoY: Housing & Utilities continued to edge higher, while Transport remained a drag—though the decline eased. MoM: Health saw an uptick, whereas Transport and Housing & Utilities posted moderated dips. Core Inflation (excl. Housing & Transport): +3.1% YoY, indicating persistent underlying demand pressures. #pragnaabyjb #insightsbypragnaa #SriLankaEconomy #CCPI #EconomicUpdate #InflationTrends #InvestmentInsights