ONE to ZERO ⟠

The world is exiting the post-2008 zero-rate era permanently. Long-term inflation and interest-rate expectations are repricing sharply higher across all major developed economies simultaneously. And in several countries, especially Japan, the UK, Germany, and France, the move is now approaching or exceeding the magnitude of the 2013 taper tantrum. Many of the winning strategies of the last 15 years may underperform the next regime. And many deeply out-of-favor areas could become structural winners rather than temporary trades.

Our 5th warning: The bond market crisis is intensifying. The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025. After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today. As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current situation in the bond market is unsustainable. We are now above levels seen when President Trump implemented a "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025 due to a collapsing bond market. Furthermore, the market now sees a 60%+ chance that the Fed's next move is an interest rate HIKE, with rate cuts entirely priced-out. We expect to see 7%+ mortgages next, all as auto loan delinquencies have reached 32-year highs. Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.

During any LTF dip, bears need to relieve the pressure and make it feel like we are coming to new lows But when looking at the TOTAL3 index (Which excludes $BTC & $ETH) It seems very clear to me that we have broken out of the 90 days bottoming range to the upside. Like that logic is simply undeniable So as long as we stay above it, you are now in that small window of re-accumulation just above it, before further upside Now obviously should it fail & we come back inside the bigger range, then you flip. But my question is, why deny the facts now & not respect the breakout? Perhaps you didn't anticipate the bottom before and that I can understand, but now after the flip of the range with a Daily confirmation? What is the strategy? A denial? Hoping? Ego is preventing many to do so in my opinion I have no problem flipping to bearish again if we fail to hold this breakout as I have done so many times before. Would I like that? Nope, but my strat would dictate me to do so. But right now? Clearly bullish until proven otherwise.

Everyone is arguing about $USDH dying. They're missing the point entirely. What happened today is the single most important business move in Hyperliquid's history. Let me explain. Revenue, liquidity, politics, lobby, and what it means for the USDH vote debate. Coinbase is now the official treasury deployer of $USDC on Hyperliquid under AQAv2. Circle handles the technical side (CCTP, cross-chain infra). Both are staking hyperliquid:native. Native Markets agreed to sell the USDH brand assets to Coinbase. $USDH is sunsetting. But the mechanics it pioneered are not. They just got applied to a $4.7B asset instead of a $100M one. Let's break down why this is a win on every single front. LIQUIDITY The biggest complaint from traders and builders for months: fragmentation. $USDH had the alignment but not the liquidity. $USDC had the liquidity but not the alignment. You had to choose. That choice is gone. One stablecoin. One orderbook per pair. No split liquidity. No confusion for HIP-3 deployers picking a quote asset. No friction for new users bridging in. $4.7B in USDC on Hyperliquid, 2x year over year. That is the base generating yield now, not $100M. REVENUE Under AQAv2, the treasury deployer shares 90% of the reserve yield revenue with the protocol. Run the numbers on the current $USDC supply: $4.7B at 3.8% interest rate, 90% shared with the Assistance Fund = $160M+ per year flowing directly into HYPE buybacks. That is $440K per day. Every day. For context, USDH at peak supply was generating a fraction of this on $100M. The AQA model worked. It just needed to be applied at the right scale. POLITICS AND LOBBYING This is the angle most people are sleeping on. Coinbase is the largest publicly traded crypto company in the US. They spent over $100M on crypto lobbying and political action in the last cycle. They are the single most powerful voice for crypto regulation in Washington. The CLARITY Act markup is happening today. Coinbase has been one of its strongest advocates. Having them financially aligned with Hyperliquid, staking HYPE, operating as treasury deployer, is not just a liquidity play. It is a regulatory shield. Every conversation about "is Hyperliquid a US regulatory risk" just got a lot harder to make when Coinbase is literally staked into the network. Circle staking 500K HYPE and moving toward becoming a validator. Jeremy Allaire posting "Hyperliquid." That is institutional endorsement at the highest level. THE USDH QUESTION "Was USDH a failure?" "Was the vote theater?" "Did Native Markets just flip an asset?" No. USDH was a weapon. It was a credible threat that proved a protocol can demand yield sharing from stablecoin issuers. Before USDH, Hyperliquid had $5B+ in USDC generating $150-200M/year for Circle and Coinbase. The protocol saw none of it. USDH launched. The AQA model proved that yield can be redirected onchain, transparently, back to the protocol. It only reached $100M in supply but that was never the point. The point was forcing incumbents to the table. Basit said it best: the entire lifecycle of USDH from launch to sunset should be studied. Coinbase didn't come to Hyperliquid out of goodwill. They came because USDH proved they would lose the venue if they didn't align. "But Paxos offered better economics during the vote." Maybe on paper. But 95-100% of a stablecoin that might have also struggled to reach $100M in supply is still less revenue than 90% of $4.7B. The vote was never about picking the best yield split on a small asset. It was about creating the leverage to capture yield on the dominant one. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR BUILDERS USDC becomes the canonical quote asset for HIP-4 outcome markets. No more guessing which stablecoin to build around. Hyper Foundation is issuing grants to HIP-3 and HIP-1 deployers who integrated USDH to cover migration costs. Feeless conversions from USDH to USDC during the transition. For HIP-3 deployers running equity perps, commodity perps, outcome markets: one liquidity pool, one collateral asset, deeper books. SECOND ORDER EFFECTS Coinbase operating perps through Hyperliquid via builder codes? Not confirmed, but now structurally possible. Their existing perp product is weak. Hyperliquid's infrastructure is the best in crypto. The incentive alignment is there. Tether now has a clear path to compete. AQAv2 is an open spec. Any stablecoin issuer can stake 500K HYPE and share yield to become an aligned quote asset. Competition is good. AQAv2 becomes a blueprint for every other chain. Hyperliquid just proved that a protocol can force the largest stablecoin issuers in crypto to share revenue at the protocol level. No one has done this before. Hyperliquid.

The American banks scored a spectacular own goal today. In lobbying aggressively to suppress stablecoin yield, they have inadvertently pushed capital towards Bitcoin backed fixed income products that offer yields they cannot compete with. The Clarity Act passed the Senate Banking Committee today. 15-9. The most contentious issue was stablecoin yield. The American Bankers Association reportedly contacted Senate offices more than 8,000 times in a single weekend to gut the compromise language. Why? Because yield-bearing stablecoins compete directly with bank deposits. They want to keep paying you 0.1% while earning 4% on your money. The compromise bans passive yield on simply holding stablecoins but allows activity-based rewards. The banks won that battle. However, they will not have the last laugh. By suppressing yield on stablecoins, they have pointed millions of people toward $STRC and $SATA. 11.5% and 13% yield respectively. Bi-monthly and daily dividends, backed by the hardest asset ever created. The banks won the battle but have no idea they are losing the war.

Something extraordinary just happened, and almost nobody on crypto Twitter is focused on the right line. The new Federal Reserve Chair just called Bitcoin “the new gold for people under 40.” Not a crypto influencer. Not a venture capitalist. The man who took control of the world’s most powerful central bank this morning. Let me put today in context. 3 regimes shifted at the same time. Monetary regime. Kevin Warsh replaces Powell as Fed Chair. “Inflation is a choice” and “regime change” are his opening lines. A central banker who openly understands Bitcoin is now setting US interest rate policy. Regulatory regime. The CLARITY Act has cleared the Senate Banking Committee after more than a hundred amendments. Bitcoin now sits one Senate floor vote away from being treated as a digital commodity in US law, with early July as the working target. Geopolitical regime. Trump and Xi have agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open. The biggest macro headwind that capped Bitcoin below 83.5k for weeks just met its first joint US–China statement. 3 walls came down today. Simultaneously. BTC is trading around 80,904. That price does not reflect what just happened. The crowd is watching the chart. I am watching the regime.

BREAKING: S&P 500 futures surge to a fresh record high, now on track for the 7th-straight weekly gain. The S&P 500 is nearing a gain of +$11 trillion in market cap in 7 weeks. Absolutely incredible.

the us govt is a 2-of-3 multisig: executive, legislative, judicial branches. each signer runs a different oracle. executive and legislative run on elections: truth is whatever the crowd signed most recently. it's fast, loud, refreshes every couple years. legitimacy by headcount. judicial branch runs on something else entirely - appointments plus case law. truth is precedent, slowly accreted, stretching back centuries. legitimacy by lineage, not by vote. so it's not just any old multisig. it's a multisig where the keyholders fundamentally disagree on what "true" even means. one branch reads one epistemology. another reads another. and the country only moves when those various epistemologies happen to point the same direction. when the founders shipped this feature they called it "separation of powers" - a coordination mechanism where power only flows when signers agree. the friction is the design. consensus was never supposed to be easy, it was supposed to be expensive.

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There it is folks: Interest rate futures now see a BASE CASE of the next Fed move being a rate HIKE. In fact, the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates before July 2027 are a mere 1%. As inflation hits its highest level since 2023, the Fed is left with no option. All as Consumer Confidence just hit a record low and the labor market is weakening under the surface. Rate hikes into stagflation are coming.

There it is folks: Interest rate futures now see a BASE CASE of the next Fed move being a rate HIKE. In fact, the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates before July 2027 are a mere 1%. As inflation hits its highest level since 2023, the Fed is left with no option. All as Consumer Confidence just hit a record low and the labor market is weakening under the surface. Rate hikes into stagflation are coming.

There it is folks: Interest rate futures now see a BASE CASE of the next Fed move being a rate HIKE. In fact, the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates before July 2027 are a mere 1%. As inflation hits its highest level since 2023, the Fed is left with no option. All as Consumer Confidence just hit a record low and the labor market is weakening under the surface. Rate hikes into stagflation are coming.

Massive Coinbase x Hyperliquid partnership that could bring $135M - $160M in revenue for $HYPE from USDC yield sharing. Big positive surprise to now have the largest U.S. regulated crypto business aligned with Hyperliquid.

A sign that the crypto industry is maturing: Onchain revenue is now much more distributed.