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Stack predictions
Multiply the outcome
PredictumX is the first parlay protocol on Solana
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PredictumX
62 posts
PredictumX
@PredictumX
Parlay infrastructure for Solana prediction markets. Stack outcomes. Multiply upside. Built for apps, LPs, and degens.
Katılım Nisan 2026
10 Takip Edilen136 Takipçiler
@CanuckInvesting no token! just the best parlay protocol on solana
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@akram_majjouda no token yet! just product, the best parlay protocol on solana!
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$1.1B in FIFA World Cup volume on Polymarket
Parlays drive 30% of that. They're launching parlay system soon
Traditional sportsbooks spent decades optimizing odds
@Polymarket did it in one market
Leshuk@leshuuuk
FIFA World Cup market has already crossed $1.1B+ in volume on Polymarket That’s more than all other prediction markets combined on this event The team is set to launch a parlay system soon Parlays drive ~30% of volume and ~65% of sportsbook revenue New ATHs are incoming
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@GuarEmperor love your post! Parlays on Solana are going to be a thing.
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PredictumX retweetledi
The first “Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contracts” protocol on Solana
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@Gino_BetOpenly Its really nice! and if you are on solana you can try with us!
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TL,DR
Correlated Parlays 😜 are coming…
Max@maxyatsuk
Polymarket may be building the biggest upgrade prediction markets have ever seen I’ve been digging through the new Polymarket v2 contracts and found something much bigger than “parlays are coming.” Under the hood, this looks like infrastructure for trading entire probabilistic scenarios. A new contract called Combinatorial Module was deployed and verified on Amoy testnet, and the deployer is linked to an address Polygonscan labels as Polymarket: Deployer 1. So this does not look theoretical anymore. The core idea is simple: instead of trading isolated events, traders could trade entire chains of outcomes as a single position. Right now prediction markets mostly work like this: 1. Trump wins 2. BTC above $150k 3. Fed cuts rates 4. Recession in 2026 Each market exists independently. But real traders rarely think in isolated events. They think in causal chains. For example: If Trump wins, crypto gets a regulatory tailwind, BTC rallies, risk-on returns, and capital rotates back into high-beta assets. The interesting part is that the new module allows this exact structure to become one position: 1.1 Trump wins 1.2 AND BTC > $150k 1.3 AND Fed cuts rates Not three separate bets. One asset, one payout, one expression of a worldview. And if all legs resolve correctly, the position pays out $1. That means traders can buy cheap convex exposure to an entire macro thesis. If the market prices the scenario at 8¢ and the full chain plays out, the position settles for $1. This is where prediction markets start looking less like betting apps and more like probability derivatives. What makes this even more interesting is that the module appears to work cross-category. Sports, politics, crypto, macro, geopolitics — anything represented as binary/negrisk conditions can theoretically be combined. The contract supports up to 50 legs in a single structure. And the positions are not static. The code includes mechanics for: – splitting positions – merging them – extracting legs – recombining scenarios – compressing resolved conditions – and wrapping existing binary markets into combinatorial positions. In other words: this is not just “build a parlay and wait.” It is closer to building dynamic scenario structures that evolve as the world changes. The NO-side is where things become especially interesting! There is a very important distinction here: NO(A AND B AND C) is NOT the same thing as: NO(A) AND NO(B) AND NO(C) The first one is the complement of the entire scenario: NOT(A AND B AND C) meaning the structure fails if any part of the chain breaks. That subtle difference is why these markets become much more sophisticated than standard YES/NO betting. The market is no longer pricing isolated outcomes. It is pricing the stability of an entire connected narrative. This opens the door to a completely different class of products. At that point, prediction markets stop being “Will X happen?” They become: “Which version of the future is currently mispriced?” There are still two massive open problems. The first is liquidity. Every scenario gets its own conditionId / positionId, but the contract itself does not imply that every combination will have its own standalone orderbook. And if liquidity fragments across millions of possible scenarios, the system breaks immediately. Which means the real unlock is probably synthetic pricing and routing: using liquidity from underlying markets to construct and price scenario positions dynamically. The second challenge is UX. Because probability algebra gets confusing very quickly. Most users will not intuitively understand the difference between: NO(A AND B) and: NO(A) AND NO(B) So the challenge is no longer just building markets. It is building interfaces that make complex probabilistic structures understandable to humans. If Polymarket solves liquidity and UX, v2 may become much more than a prediction market upgrade. It could become the first real probability trading layer for the internet. Bullish. Huge W @devjoshstevens @mustafap0ly @Polymarket @PolymarketDevs @SuhailKakar
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@dan_bernstein_ hey, if all of this goes well, will be a great time to build parlay protocols
what you think, to build this on solana?
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Polymarket U.S. files with the CFTC about implementing parlays (which it calls "Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contracts")
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@slash1sol @0xCristal dont wait! try some now!!! we are on devnet but still fun!
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Polymarket officially confirmed they're building parlays
The legal filing describes it exactly
> Multiple market legs combined into one position
> All must settle correctly to win
> Payout compounds across every leg
This is the most important feature in prediction market history
And you don't have to wait for it
@Poly_Parlay has been running this on Polymarket since April
I know because I've been using it
Last month alone:
Iran + WTI: +$4,200
NBA: +$8,700
Market cap ranking: +$2,590
Weather arbitrage: +$3,800
Total: +$19,290
Every single one of these would have returned a fraction of that traded separately
Polymarket is months away from launching officially
The only question is whether you keep trading separately until then
Or start using what already exists
Live: t.me/poly_parlay_bo…
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@alu69420 @Polymarket If this goes well, it might be a great time to build parlay protocols :)
Maybe the best time to do it on Solana?
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.@Polymarket 要搞串关（Parlay）？
去查证了一下确实是真消息，来源是 CFTC 官方公开 filing。大概意思是 Polymarket US 计划推出一种新型体育类事件合约，名为 “Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contract”（CAOC，组合体育结果合约），本质就是我们所说的串关。
之前有不少项目都搞过或者想搞预测市场 + 杠杠，但在我看来最适合在预测市场上加杠杆的方式就是串关，尤其是针对体育领域。串关也一直是体育菠菜中最赚钱的产品之一，模式上已经得到了充分验证，尽管这种玩法抽水很高，但也挡不住肾上腺素和多巴胺就是最好的催化剂。
马上世界杯就要来了，体育这块基本属于预测市场的必争之地了，Polymarket 推串关无非想把预测市场的透明结算 + 链上/合规优势带入这一领域，来进一步提升交易量（看着隔壁 @Kalshi 在体育板块的交易量是真羡慕啊…
不过需要注意的是，提交文件的主体是 Polymarket US（收购的牌照，受 CFTC 监管），不知道全球站会不会也上，只能期待一下了。
Dan Bernstein@dan_bernstein_
Polymarket U.S. files with the CFTC about implementing parlays (which it calls "Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contracts")
中文
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🚨@Polymarket just filed with the CFTC to legally launch parlays.
they’re calling them “Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contracts” because regulators hate the word “parlay” 😂
Mechanics:
- All legs must hit or you get zero
- Mid-game cashouts allowed
- Up to 50-leg possible
parlays are how traditional sportsbooks actually print their margins.
dropping this right before the World Cup is a massive revenue play.
if they tie the volume to a $POLY drop… the timeline is going to lose its mind.
$POLY season loading? 👀
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🚨 Polymarket lanza contratos de predicción deportiva "parlay" en EE.UU.
La CFTC recibe la propuesta que permite combinar múltiples resultados en una sola apuesta.
Los mercados predictivos avanzan en medio de crecientes tensiones regulatorias.
La SEC evalúa la posibilidad de ETFs relacionados con estos mercados revolucionarios.
¡Un nuevo capítulo en la especulación financiera!
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@dan_bernstein_ interesting, a good moment to build a protocol arround parlays :)
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Whereas some prediction market exchanges publicly share their reasoning for why certain markets have economic utility in CFTC filings, Kalshi requests these justifications be kept confidential.
The CFTC continues to grant these requests.
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normal people: "I put a parlay on"
me, filing my Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contract paperwork with the CFTC: "I have structured a multi-leg position on @Polymarket"
GIF
Dan Bernstein@dan_bernstein_
Polymarket U.S. files with the CFTC about implementing parlays (which it calls "Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contracts")
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