Dan Bernstein

When sportsbook veterans make markets in the same place as financial firms, who has the edge? New prediction markets feature story from me... sportico.com/business/sport…

Scoop: the WNBA regular season is poised to expand from 44 regular season games in 2026 to 52 games over the life of new CBA, per verbal agreement with terms still to be ratified. @soshnick sportico.com/leagues/basket…

We live in the silliest timeline

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MLB justified its Polymarket deal by touting how much it would improve prediction market integrity for baseball. One catch: The deal isn't focused on the Polymarket exchange most people use. sportico.com/business/sport…

Kalshi has raised more than $1 billion at a valuation of $22 billion in a new financing round, according to a person familiar with the situation bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@Nostroah Robinhood called them irrelevant a few months ago ☠️ sportico.com/business/sport…

Public taking shots at Robinhood.

@DustinGouker OUT: 1930s grain IN: The War of 1812 x.com/dan_bernstein_…

If you had a bet on prediction markets being compared to letters of marque, you probably just made a fortune

"The MLB-Polymarket deal includes language that would void the partnership if courts were to rule that prediction markets violate state law, according to a league source." via @DavidPurdum espn.com/mlb/story/_/id…

Statement from MLB partner Sportradar on today’s prediction markets news:

I truly don't think I've ever seen a play like this before. Cason Wallace *caught* his opponent's crossover. Picking a pocket without the ball hitting the floor:

Prediction markets platform Polymarket is looking to hire a chief risk officer as it works to expand its regulated business in the US, according to people familiar with the matter. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@dan_bernstein_ @BobbyAllyn That makes no sense.

This is a good run-down of what some may not know: when you place a bet on Kalshi, they like to say it's peer-to-peer betting. You versus other bettors. They don't set lines, like online sportsbooks, making them distinct from gambling sites. But actually, Kalshi operates a separate entity that can take the opposite side of your bet. Several lawsuits have argued this ends up functioning no different than a house.

@MickBransfield @BobbyAllyn There are now companies explicitly saying their affiliated trading arms are a revenue generating opportunity! It's not outlandish, and you can't credibly predict the future of KT performance or say what's going on there.

@dan_bernstein_ @BobbyAllyn Yes, it's called a loss leader. The exchange is way more valuable then anything Kalshi Trading could/would do

@MickBransfield @BobbyAllyn We have no idea what liquidity KT provides and the extent it operates beyond offering initial betting lines because this hasn't been publicly disclosed!

@dan_bernstein_ @BobbyAllyn Yes, there's no automatic counterparty like with a sportsbook. Theyre creating initial open interest.

@MickBransfield @BobbyAllyn Unprofitable does not mean not-for-profit, nor is it a permanent state. There are tons of publicly traded companies that are unprofitable! That doesn't mean they don't aspire to make a profit. And KT being "unprofitable" was for a specific period.

@dan_bernstein_ @BobbyAllyn Are they lying about it being unprofitable?

@MickBransfield @BobbyAllyn Further, if it's "priming the pump" of a disconnected entity ... then it's not really so disconnected, is it?

@MickBransfield @BobbyAllyn I didn't write that it was the exact same thing as a sportsbook, I wrote that there are overlaps and that it's not really *peer to peer* On the second point, Kalshi Trading is explicitly a for-profit entity.

Andrew dropped a piece on market design - RFQ counterparty IDs, Polymarket copy-trading dynamics, taker fee structures, and how none of these dials are neutral great read if you want to understand who prediction market design actually favors x.com/andrewcourt1/s…

@MickBransfield @BobbyAllyn That's a number from one 28-day period provided by the company. Five percent is also a big figure considering volume! And it may be much higher for other categories.

@BobbyAllyn @dan_bernstein_ This is not comparable. Kashi trading is ~5% of sports volume, and it will likely keep going down as Kalshi scales up.