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aaron
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aaron
@probaaron
actuary, prediction market analytics co-founder @kalshinomics 🚵♂️
denver Katılım Şubat 2025
2.4K Takip Edilen3.7K Takipçiler
@DustinGouker so part of me wouldn't really care
but all of the sports $ likely helps grow the broader prediction market ecosystem, which I generally like.. positive externalities there
let them utilize gaming event contracts as a financial instrument 🤷♂️
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If prediction markets stopped offering sports all the lawsuits would end tomorrow
Paul Grewal@iampaulgrewal
This is why the incumbent anti constitution, anti plain meaning of statutes assault on competition from prediction markets won't stop merely with sports contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges. They want the other 46.8 percent, too-- they want it all.
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Damn bro they making our raise look like literal crumbs. 😭🤣
(it’s motivating fwiw)
Bloomberg@business
Kalshi has raised more than $1 billion at a valuation of $22 billion in a new financing round, according to a person familiar with the situation bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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this might just be my new favorite parody account
x.com/AmericanGaming…
American Gaming Association@AmericanGaming
Prediction market vs. state-regulated sportsbook. What happens if you bet $10 on the favorite in first-round games, and win them all? Don't invest in the prediction market hype. When you place you bets against Wall Street, you're not going to come out ahead.
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@thesamparr Sam, I really enjoy your content but I also lean very pro prediction markets. that said, I really dont care for sports markets as it's 99% gambling in a new form (ie very little to no hedging going on)
anyway 🍿 watching this play out and glad you're engaging with the topic
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Don’t piss on my back and tell me it’s rain. Just own it.
“This is a shitty thing but fuck ‘em, I just wanna get paid.”
John Wang@j0hnwang
That's a false dichotomy Putting money on sports isn't going away The only question is whether it happens on a neutral exchange or through a predatory house that profits directly from your losses Defending the status quo means defending casino monopolies. Supporting prediction markets means supporting better consumer protection.
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@EndBackdoorBets @MickMulvaney how does this have anything to do with consumer protections?
prediction markets have improved the consumer experience.. maybe you meant to say sportsbook revenue protection?
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Mick's Picks @MickMulvaney is riding with Michigan to cut down the nets!
When wagering on your national champion, remember that prediction markets skirt the consumer protections and state tax structures that legal sportsbooks comply with.
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@benwfreeman1 I wonder what the volume weighted average would be, probably even higher?
also, feeling a little old here 💀
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Average age on Kalshi being 33 is crazy. There are way more UNCS than I thought. Lmao
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_
@thesamparr 1. Average age on Kalshi is 33 years old. 2. An open, fair, and transparent marketplace that rewards informed trading and doesn’t derive all profits from customer losses is better than a platform that actively bans winners and promotes unhealthy behaviors.
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aaron retweetledi
We are LIVE with @probaaron from Kalshinomics discussing oil markets and other PMs. Tune in! twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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excited to chat on HiveLive tomorrow, tune in!
x.com/i/status/20344…
Hive@HiveLiveHQ
🛢️OIL MARKET CHECK🛢️ TOMORROW at 10am ET, we are LIVE with Aaron from Kalshinomics tracking geopolitical markets and their new tool to compare Oil futures with prediction market prices. Tune in to learn more about how to use these tools to your trading advantage.
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aaron retweetledi
they dont want you to know this but if you watch all the games and fill it out based on who wins you can get a perfect bracket 100% of the time
Kalshi@Kalshi
Win $1 Billion if you build a perfect bracket Free to enter kalshi.com/billion
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the odds of the "citrini scenario" happening have doubled on Kalshi over the past few weeks
citriniodds.com
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aaron retweetledi
Andrew dropped a piece on market design - RFQ counterparty IDs, Polymarket copy-trading dynamics, taker fee structures, and how none of these dials are neutral
great read if you want to understand who prediction market design actually favors
x.com/andrewcourt1/s…
Andrew Courtney@andrewcourt1
Market design isn't neutral. Every choice about anonymity, fees, and identity shifts money between squares, sharps, and dealers. Here's how Kalshi's RFQ system, Polymarket's on-chain wallets, and Kalshi's taker fee each change that balance - and who wins.
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@Red781RuM @SirOtterAI most people don't have or even know what metamask is
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@SirOtterAI @probaaron ''need to jump through a million hoops''
Bro everyone should already be using a VPN lmao.
Just go to polymarket dot com and connect your metamask then voila!
No KYC, No verification, No bullshit.
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aaron retweetledi
@EventWavesIO what's the best timely source of data to plug into? haven't touched oil markets, just curious and not as familiar
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What % of the people trading Oil on Polymarket are using 15min delayed data? Significant, I think
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@semajeth @michael_lwy @VitalikButerin @DaedalusRsch @aradtski @functionspaceHQ @TideMarkets @ZEITFinance @Jake_Nyquist @Nekt_0 @Ranger_Global @jeff__opinion @masonnystrom @RohOnChain @deepvaluebettor @andrewcourt1 @defiance_cr agree, I've also been enjoying @EventWavesIO writing
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@michael_lwy @VitalikButerin @DaedalusRsch @probaaron @aradtski @functionspaceHQ @TideMarkets @ZEITFinance @Jake_Nyquist @Nekt_0 @Ranger_Global @jeff__opinion @masonnystrom @RohOnChain Cheers brother, appreciate it. In turn, I'll mention @deepvaluebettor @andrewcourt1 @defiance_cr as good follows. In the interests of full honesty for the reader, I also believe RohOnChain (tagged above) is a total liar and charlatan, and that his posts are outright LLM slop.
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Here's who to follow if you want actually good takes on prediction markets:
@VitalikButerin
@DaedalusRsch
@probaaron
@aradtski
@functionspaceHQ
@TideMarkets
@ZEITFinance
@Jake_Nyquist
@Nekt_0
@Ranger_Global
@sybilpm
@nic__carter
@jeff__opinion
@masonnystrom
@RohOnChain
@aaronjmars
@klos
@voliti_co
@gemchange_ltd
@hyperstiti0ns
@benfielding
@semajeth
@0xjacobzhao
@0xnagu
@SolSt1ne
@mikhryc0x
@mikita_crypto
@marvellousdefi
@theoddchain
@curiouscamilo
@linfluence
@jolimmmm
@outpxce
@socialgraphvc
@DougieDeLuca
@BetBreakNews
@dbarabander
@sidbharth
@smaaaaliy
@thejay
@trashman18
@drNeyo
@13_niakris
@Baheet
@a1research__
@akshayraj_v0
@reachavci
@njokuScript
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@probaaron Look what you’ve done bro lol
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru
JUST IN: X officially starts rolling out dislike button.
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@michael_lwy @VitalikButerin @DaedalusRsch @aradtski @functionspaceHQ @TideMarkets @ZEITFinance @Jake_Nyquist @Nekt_0 @Ranger_Global @jeff__opinion @masonnystrom @RohOnChain thanks for the mention 🤝
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We just launched the biggest update ever!
Our new website predictfolio.com is now a must for EVERY prediction market user:
- PnL & Performance PER market
- Near real time trade activity
- See your counter parties in EVERY trade
- Combined PnL for events with multiple markets
- View your 24H PnL changes PER market
- Analyze your total trade history
Next up: markets 😛
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