Philip E. Tetlock

We completed the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy. They predict major AI progress—but no dramatic break from economic trends: GDP growth rates similar to today's and a moderate decline in labor force participation. However, when asked to consider what would happen in a world with extremely rapid progress in AI capabilities by 2030, they predict significant economic impacts by 2050: • Annualized GDP growth of 3.5% (compared to 2.4% in 2025) • A labor force participation rate of 55% (roughly 10 million fewer jobs) • 80% of wealth held by the top 10% (highest since 1939) 🧵 Here's what we found:

We completed the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy. They predict major AI progress—but no dramatic break from economic trends: GDP growth rates similar to today's and a moderate decline in labor force participation. However, when asked to consider what would happen in a world with extremely rapid progress in AI capabilities by 2030, they predict significant economic impacts by 2050: • Annualized GDP growth of 3.5% (compared to 2.4% in 2025) • A labor force participation rate of 55% (roughly 10 million fewer jobs) • 80% of wealth held by the top 10% (highest since 1939) 🧵 Here's what we found:

I have underestimated to what extent people interested in politics believe the good guys are perpetually on the verge of defeating the bad guys once and for all. here is Rush Limbaugh in 1993 predicting the imminent implosion of liberalism:

What do experts and superforecasters think about the future of AI research and development? In Wave 4 of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), we asked top AI experts to forecast progress in AI R&D, hiring, company valuations, data center buildout, and more. Here’s what you need to know 🧵

Today, we are launching the most rigorous ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP). We’ve assembled a panel of 339 top experts across computer science, AI industry, economics, and AI policy. Roughly every month—for the next three years—they’ll provide precise, falsifiable forecasts on the trajectory of AI capabilities, adoption, and impact. Our results cover where experts predict major effects of AI, where they expect less progress than AI industry leaders, and where they disagree. LEAP experts forecast major effects of AI by 2030, including: ⚡ 7x increase in AI’s share of U.S. electricity use (1% -> 7%) 🖥️ 9x increase in AI-assisted work hours (2% -> 18%) By 2040, experts predict: 👥30% of adults will use AI for companionship daily 🏆60% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem 🚂32% chance that AI will have been at least as impactful as a "technology of the millennium," like the printing press or the Industrial Revolution. 🧵Read on for more insights and results

"When Prophecy Fails … the case was misrepresented. The cult did not persist, proselytize, or reinterpret its failure as a spiritual triumph. Its leader recanted, the group disbanded, and belief dissolved."

The wildest abstract I've read in awhile

My estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising

How can you be "one of the most singular" of anything?

Is AI on track to match top human forecasters at predicting the future? Today, FRI is releasing an update to ForecastBench—our benchmark that tracks how accurate LLMs are at forecasting real-world events. A trend extrapolation of our results suggests LLMs will reach superforecaster-level forecasting performance around a year from now. Here’s what you need to know: 🧵

Anyone whose explanations are more technical than mine is obfuscating with formalism to hide their underlying lack of conceptual clarity. Anyone whose explanations are less technical than mine is a poseur who has failed to engage with the substantive content of the theory.