Robin Hanson

A pretty cover this week. newyorker.com/culture/cover-…

Median estimates: 3.7% of human behavior is explained by the highest possible motives, 11% explained by the lowest. I don't disagree.

"There's entrenched thought that Athens & Republican Rome were the only two democracies in the ancient world … we saw societies in other parts of the world that were equally democratic to Athens & Rome.'" phys.org/news/2026-03-d…

@JosephJacks_ And then there's the issue of software …

One human brain has 86 billion neurons containing > 10 quintillion α-tubulins doing ~10²⁵ ops/sec on 20 watts of power. Compared to the largest XPU superclusters, we have 6x more compute elements, 100x more ops/sec and require 500M× less power. Silicon has a long way to go.

No, no, you have a decent chance of making that work.

"Marriages based exclusively upon economic motive have not only existed in all periods and at all stages of development, but are particularly common among primitive groups and conditions where they do not cause any offence at all. The disparagement of personal dignity that nowadays arises in every marriage that is not based on personal affection—so that a sense of decency requires the concealment of economic motives—does not exist in simpler cultures." Simmel (1900) Philosophy of Money

@robsica overcomingbias.com/p/how-meaning-…

"Who needs suffering? Anyone who wants meaning." #556175359" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">academic.oup.com/book/62427/cha…

This is ... not at all how AI has developed. Instead, development has mostly followed the trajectory Hanson outlined: many small innovations across many teams, driven by content, supported by massive infrastructure and capex.

@CasinoConnex @maxraskin @MichaelSelig @washingtonpost zero

@maxraskin @MichaelSelig @robinhanson @washingtonpost Wow, the word salad in this story is indicative that prediction markets will stoop to any level to justify the gambling that is clearly occurring. How much did they pay you for this bogus "analysis"?

Prediction markets are more than gambling. They're modern letters of marque like those used by Congress to seize 🇬🇧 ships during the War of 1812 I spoke to the CFTC's @MichaelSelig and @robinhanson for this piece in @washingtonpost wapo.st/4lB9znD

History has seen 4 main responses to murder: Forager - informal push condolence, reconciliation Small Clan - revenge by clan, often leads to feud Big Clan - Sue for "blood money" compensation Strong States - State pursues & punishes "crime" Which do you prefer?

@bryan_caplan Expand your concept of self to include big things.

Don't believe in anything "bigger than yourself." Instead, become big enough for you to believe in yourself.

"it was only after humans had already come to view the world instrumentally that we could create a system of technological production geared towards its own acceleration."

“'Prediction markets have come far since I first argued for them in 1988, but they could go much further,' said economist Robin Hanson, one of the early pioneers of the markets. 'They might tell voters which candidates cut unemployment, tell firms which projects lead to profits.'”

"As AI systems begin to make believable statements about their suffering and desires, they will trigger people’s empathy circuits. … Not wanting to repeat [past] injustices, people will start to advocate for the welfare and rights of AI agents. … [But] AI agents should have no more rights or freedoms than my laptop." No, empathy seems the safer approach. nature.com/articles/d4158…

"why are some of the most powerful individuals in the planet’s history so pessimistic about democracy & humanity’s future?" Because they've read the literature? nature.com/articles/d4158…

@deepdrpt You alternate sending words to each other, right?

am in the only one that doesn’t view interactions with llms as “conversations”?

What % of your time spent in INTELLECTUAL conversation recently has been with LLMs?

What % of your time spent in conversation recently has been with LLMs?

@Philonous some define a cynic as one who doesn't recognize different levels

@robinhanson Is utilitarian motivation (for the long run) the *highest*, or is it *tainted with self-interest*, in that it is not completely *altruistic*? By the way, note that a nihilist cannot be a cynic, since he regards all motivations as on a level, none higher or lower than others.

Cynicism is often defined as a habit of attributing behavior more to low than to high motives, compared to others. So let's see how cynical you all are. What % of human behavior is explained by the highest possible motives?

@encyclopath Equal response rates does suggest simple random choices.

@robinhanson There’s no way you didn’t already know how people would answer to get a distribution like that. 😝