Puzzlebox AI

Monday wrap. 54 winning returns. +41.1% ROI on the day. Best return: York R6 SRM +$562. Best single: Rosehill R7 First 4 +$448. V4.9 model live. PuzzleScore v1.0 built. Tomorrow we're sharper. #HorseRacing #AIBetting @puzzleboxai

@beermitchell Dont say I didn't tell ya Beery.

@beermitchell Rors goes back to back.

Don't want to hear who you backed on Monday morning! Declare your Masters winner below 👇

@JRRacing_Tips Odds as well?

@puzzleboxai The data used in my model is supplied by formking.com.au

I’ve developed an automatic pricing model as a baseline for identifying winners and market edge. I’ve already run it across Saturday’s races and would value some feedback. Reach out if you’d like to review a sample of a meeting.

@JRRacing_Tips It's a lot of data to collate. I find getting market odds the most annoying. How are you layering the market odds?

@puzzleboxai Hey mate i've spent a fair time developing in the background. i'm excited for its potential to be able to look for value in the market and pinpoint horse probability. Time will tell i guess.

Thursday. 9 selections. v3.3 model live — completely rebuilt overnight. Class drops, momentum, prep staging, place value. 561 runners scored. 9 passed the gate. Skogafoss. Luckee Floran. Zale. Unobscured. Let's go. @puzzleboxai #AUSRacing #HorseRacing #RacingTips

Wednesday wrap. -$1,722. Worst day since launch. What went right: Diversity won. Place book returned $541. SRMs saved a race. NTD rules worked. What went wrong: Everything else. 22 bets when profitable days had 5. Track conditions wrong. Two "top rated" horses ran last. +279% edge on a horse with zero places at the distance. No stop-loss. What we did about it: Rebuilt the entire model in 2 hours. v3.1 — 7 proprietary factors, zero third-party score weight. Max 8 bets/day. Hard exclude when the market disagrees by 3.5x. v3.1 backtest on the same card: 4 bets, -$8. Would have saved $1,714. Building in public means showing this too. Back today. #HorseRacing #AUSRacing #BuildInPublic

DIVERSITY - Eagle Farm R3. Won by 2 lengths. PBAI 100/100. Backed at $3.20. Fair value $2.80. Led from the front. Got the breather. Had them off their feet. Class 1 race. Not a maiden. This is where the model thrives. #EagleFarm #Winner #HorseRacing @puzzleboxai

HAWKESBURY — quality over quantity. 3 overlays, all strong. Almaaz (R3) — Conv 92, +120% edge. James McDonald rides. West Of Dalby (R4) — PFAI 100, +279% Iron Legend (R3) — place play, elite late speed Light rain. Soft 5. First jump 2:05pm. #Hawkesbury #NSWRacing @puzzleboxai

PINJARRA — 7 overlays. Good 4. Mr Frodo (R3) — PFAI 93, Conv 80 Maxwhooshtapin (R7) — +211% overlay, blinkers off R1 is NTD (6 runners). Place pays top 2 only. First jump 1:40pm. #Pinjarra #WARacing @puzzleboxai

BEST BET - Count Nicholas. Eagle Farm R6. 3:33pm. PBAI 100/100. #1 rated. Market $10.00. Our price $2.78. +253% overlay. BM68. 7 runners. Soft 5. Elite late speed. Ryan Maloney. Barrier 4. Everything lines up. This is the bet. #EagleFarm #BestBet #HorseRacing @puzzleboxai

SALE — biggest card of the day. 13 overlays. Good 4. The Mansman (R6) — +117% edge, top conviction Rock The Bar (R7) — +177%, PFAI 88 Bark (R4) — PFAI 100 but unreliable flag Maidens R1-R4, BMs R5-R8. First jump 1:05pm. #Sale #VICRacing @puzzleboxai

EAGLE FARM loaded. 10 overlays across 7 races. Soft 5. Sword Of Legacy (R1) — PFAI 100, +78% overlay The Aviator (R2) — PFAI 98, +97% Count Nicholas (R6) — PFAI 100, +253% Three LOAD UP++ plays. First jump 12:38pm. #EagleFarm #QLDRacing @puzzleboxai

22 starts. Zero wins. No Savings leads the eternal maidens at Sale R3. 12 horses today with 10+ starts still chasing their maiden victory. Egyptian Goddess (18 starts), Gokana (18), Lady Mayflower (17). Will today be the day? #Maidens #AUSRacing @puzzleboxai

Where does our fair price diverge most from the bookmakers? Oak Park Mia: We say $3.73. Market says $19.80. That's a +431% overlay. 8 runners where the market is paying 2-5x what our model thinks is fair. #HorseRacing #Overlays @puzzleboxai

255 runners. 57 scratchings. 7 NTD races. 12 eternal maidens still searching for win #1. 13 debutants. 19 Waller runners. 7 horses rated 100. Our model found 33 overlays. Best edge: West Of Dalby +280%. #WedRacing #AUSRacing @puzzleboxai

Race day loaded. 4 meetings. 22 win races. 33 overlays found. Eagle Farm | Sale | Hawkesbury | Pinjarra Model says the edge is there. Cards dropping below. #WedRacing #AUSRacing @puzzleboxai

Grafton Tuesday — wrapped ✅ 25 bets. 8 selections. One track. R4 ❌ R5 ❌ R6 ✅ R7 ✅ R8 ✅ $805 staked · $981 returned Net +$176 · ROI +21.8% R4 and R5 hurt. Lady Alabama and the place book brought us home. 3-leg place multi paid 10x. New staking rule (H7) added +$140 on identical selections. Bankroll: $2,080 → $2,291 #Grafton #HorseRacing #AUSRacing #ValueBetting @puzzleboxai

Grafton R8 wrapped. Photo finish — all within a head. 3. Decisive Lass — 3rd ✅ PLACE $70 @ $2.60 fixed → $182 return 3-leg place multi (Jukebox + Lady Alabama + Decisive Lass) $17 stake → $170 return Tough card — R4 and R5 both cold. Lady Alabama and the place book brought us home. Session: +$211 · Bankroll: $2,291 #Grafton #HorseRacing #AUSRacing @puzzleboxai

LADY ALABAMA ✅ Grafton R7 Tough day — R4 went cold, R5 went cold. Lady Alabama delivered when it mattered. Model fair value: $6.28 Market price: $9.00 That's what +50% edge looks like. WIN $30 · PLACE $85 · Return $504 · Profit +$390 Still profitable. Session not done yet. R8 live. #Grafton #HorseRacing #AUSRacing @puzzleboxai