schrödinger's_cat
264 posts
@quantam_kitten
master procrastinator. reluctant statistician and economist. wanabe physicist.
My latest article in The New Indian Express on the topic of Who Pays How Much GST in India. Oxfam's claim that 64.3% of the GST is paid by the poorest 50% in India has been widely circulated several times in various media outlets. Inspired by a student's comment during a casual discussion on the Indian Economy, I investigated this assertion. After analyzing detailed NSSO Consumption data and GST rates on over 400 items consumed by Indian households, the results revealed a stark contrast. The bottom 50% actually contributes 9.6% of the Total GST in India, debunking Oxfam's figure of 64%. #India #GST #Economy #DataAnalysis #Oxfam
PREDICTION: Anthropic will surpass Alphabet in revenue by mid-2028. This is not a bull case or an acceleration scenario — it is a continuation of the curve already in evidence. Anthropic’s ARR went from $1B (Jan 2025) to $9B (Dec 2025) to $30B (Apr 2026) — a 3.3x step in a single four-month window, and the curve has been steepening, not flattening. My projection actually assumes deceleration from here: $100B by end of 2026, $340B in 2027, $850B in 2028, $1.4T in 2029, $2T by 2030. Crossover with Alphabet happens at ~$575B in mid-2028, not because Anthropic accelerates beyond today’s pace, but because Alphabet — locked at ~15% YoY in a mature ads-and-cloud business — cannot match enterprise AI’s adoption physics. As @rodriscoll intelligently observed recently, Gemini tokens served grew by only 60% in the last quarter … while Anthropic grew by 10X. Three drivers make the continuation structural, not speculative: customers spending >$1M/year with Anthropic doubled from 500 to 1,000 in under two months post-Series G (these are multi-year expanding contracts with near-zero churn — switching a deployed agent stack mid-flight is operationally untenable); Claude Code is the wedge, not the product, dragging the rest of the platform — agents, MCP, healthcare, biotech — into every Fortune 2000 deployment as an attach point; and compute supply is finally non-binding with the 3.5GW Google + Broadcom deal (2027+), this weeks SpaceX partnership, and 1GW of standing Google capacity for 2026. For most of 2024–2025 the bottleneck was supply, not demand. That constraint is releasing exactly when the demand curve is steepest. The standard objection — “no company has ever sustained this at scale” — applies a software-era frame to a labor-era business. AWS, Azure, and Meta decelerated at $50–100B because they sold tools to the economy. Anthropic is selling cognitive capacity into the economy. The TAM isn’t enterprise software ($800B). It’s labor ($50T+). When the denominator is two orders of magnitude larger, “deceleration at $100B ARR” stops being a law and starts being an assumption. The crossover isn’t a maybe. It’s a function of timing. Mid-2028 is when I think Anthropic surpasses Google.
Anthropic will have a higher valuation than Alphabet in < 18 months.
I got this wrong in Mamata's Banerjee's case (Samserganj still stands). Here's why: More than 51,000 names were deleted from the electoral rolls in Mamata Banerjee’s seat, Bhabanipur. Out of these, some 11,000 had Died (D), so the ‘net-deletions’ after accounting for the dead, came to about 40,000. These included people who had Shifted permanently (S), were untraceable or Absent (A), had their names Duplicated (D) in the rolls, or simply people whose names had ‘logical discrepancies.’ Surely, this being Mamata’s seat the TMC would have left no stone unturned to find the missing people, and would have taken those they found to the EC for ‘adjudication’? Roughly 14,000 people went to the EC to get their names put back on the rolls. The remaining 26,000 didn’t turn up – clearly, they were no longer voters in Bhabanipur. Out of the 14,000 who went for adjudication, more than 10,000 managed to get back their right to vote. 3,893 people got disenfranchised. That’s the final number in Bhabanipur – 3,893 living, breathing voters lost their right to vote. But Mamata Banerjee lost by a margin of 14,651.
everyone who justified protest on road during farmer protest and shaheen bagh, are suddenly waking up and saying you can't block roads to protest. 🫣
