Marq

Marc Andreessen just dropped ~105 mins on Lenny's Podcast covering AI, jobs, careers, and why everyone is panicking about the wrong thing. Just the clearest macro framework I've heard on where AI actually lands. My notes: 𝟭. 𝗔𝗜 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗶𝘁. US productivity growth has been running at half the rate of the 1940-1970 era and a third the rate of 1870-1940. The global population is declining below replacement in dozens of countries, including China. Without AI, we would be panicking about economies shrinking from depopulation, not job loss. The timing is almost miraculous. This is what Andreessen means when he says the real boom has not started yet. We have been in a 50-year productivity drought, and most people do not even realize it. 𝟮. 𝗔𝗜 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗼𝗽𝗵𝗲𝗿'𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗻𝗲. Isaac Newton spent decades trying to transmute lead into gold and never succeeded. AI does something more powerful: it converts sand (silicon) into thought. The most common material in the world is the rarest output. This one metaphor reframes the entire AI conversation. You do not have a job loss problem. You have a philosopher's stone sitting on your desk that you are not using enough. 𝟯. 𝗔𝗜 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁. The best coders right now are not reporting 2x productivity. They are reporting 10x. The gap between "pretty good with AI" and "elite with AI" is widening, not narrowing. This is the most important signal for career planning right now. If you are just using AI to do the same job slightly faster, you are leaving the real leverage on the table. 𝟰. 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲'𝘀 𝗮 𝗠𝗲𝘅𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗣𝗠𝘀, 𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗿𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀. Every engineer now thinks they can be a PM and designer. Every PM thinks they can code and design. Every designer knows they can do both. And they are all correct, because AI enables each role to absorb the tasks of the other two. I have seen this firsthand in the investing world. The analyst who can build models and write narratives is 5x more valuable than someone who can do only one. The same convergence is happening in the product. 𝟱. 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗧-𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗱. 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱 𝗮𝗻 𝗘-𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗿. Scott Adams could not have created Dilbert by being the world's best cartoonist or the world's best business mind. He needed both. The additive effect of two skills is more than double. Three skills are more than triple. Larry Summers puts it differently: don't be fungible. The person who can code, design, and ship a product is no longer a unicorn. They are the new baseline for "extremely valuable." If you are only one of those three things, you are increasingly replaceable. 𝟲. 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗮𝘀𝗸𝘀. 𝗧𝗮𝘀𝗸𝘀 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲. 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁. Executives never typed their own emails in the 1970s. Secretaries printed incoming emails and hand-delivered them. Both roles survived the transition, just with different task sets. The same will happen with AI and coding, PM work, and design. Everyone obsessing over "will my job disappear" is asking the wrong question. The right question is: which tasks in my job are about to rotate, and am I ready to pick up the new ones? 𝟳. 𝗔𝗜 𝗰𝗼𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘀 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗮𝗯𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿. We went from human calculators to machine code to assembly to C to scripting languages. Each layer was dismissed by the previous generation. Each time, the new layer won, and total coding employment grew. AI coding is the same pattern, not a rupture. The Perl programmers of 2005, laughing at JavaScript, are the C programmers of 1995, laughing at scripting. History rhymes, and it always rewards the people who adopt the next abstraction first. 𝟴. 𝗔𝗜 𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘇𝗲𝘀 𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. One-on-one tutoring is the only method proven to move a student from the 50th to the 99th percentile (Bloom's two sigma effect). It used to require being born into royalty. Alexander the Great was tutored by Aristotle. Now, any kid with a phone can access the same quality of personalized instruction. This is the most under-discussed consequence of AI. Every parent reading this should be supplementing their kid's education with structured AI tutoring right now. Not next year. Now. 𝟵. 𝗣𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝗲𝗹 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗔𝗻𝗱𝗿𝗲𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗻 𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗮𝗱𝗺𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗱. Progress in bits masked stagnation in atoms. The built world is barely different from 50 years ago. Same bridges from the 1930s, same dams from the 1910s. Cartels, monopolies, unions, and regulations prevent the rate of change that people had 100 years ago. This is also why AI will not transform everything overnight. Institutional sclerosis is real. Healthcare alone could take a generation. If you are building in atoms, budget for a war of attrition, not a blitzkrieg. 𝟭𝟬. 𝗠𝗼𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗜 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘂𝗻𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄𝗻. Within a year of ChatGPT's launch, five American companies, five Chinese companies, and open-source all had roughly equivalent models. DeepSeek emerged from a hedge fund in China and basically replicated the American labs' work. The smartest AI insiders privately admit there aren't many real secrets among the big labs. This is the most honest take I have heard from a top-tier VC. No one knows if the value accrues to models, apps, or infrastructure. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling you certainty they do not have. 𝟭𝟭. 𝗔𝗜 𝗜𝗤 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘁𝘀. Human IQ caps around 160 because of biology. Current AI models test around 130-140. There is no theoretical ceiling stopping AI from reaching 200, 250, or 300. The concept of AGI as a "human equivalent" will be a footnote because AI will race past that threshold. This is the frame that makes the "will AI take my job" debate feel small. We are not building a replacement for human thought. We are building something that will be better than the best human thought has ever been. 𝟭𝟮. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗶𝘀. Layer one: AI redefines products. Layer two: AI redefines jobs within companies. Layer three, which has not dropped yet: AI redefines the very concept of having a company. The holy grail is the one-person, billion-dollar outcome, and the best founders are chasing it. Satoshi did it with Bitcoin. Instagram and WhatsApp came close with tiny teams. The question is no longer if this is possible with software. The question is how many of these we will see in the next five years. AI is the philosopher's stone. The question is whether you pick it up. The full podcast is worth your time. Link in replies.

@bluewmist Love this

every time you replace “this is hard” with “what’s the first step?” you shift brain activity from your amygdala (fear) to your prefrontal cortex (problem-solving). that’s neuroplasticity in real time.

Pay attention when no one does.. #Bitcoin 🚀

Bit afraid this might really happen...just imagine 🚀

@martypartymusic You are killing it with those calls. Stunning

#Bitcoin #Wyckoff Accumulation - 5:43pm Jan 30th Note: Remember we begin a CME gap today which will probably be filled on Sunday evening. Possible scenarios remain: - Continued liquidations of remaining leveraged longs - lowest 25x Binance liquidation level at $79350 right now completing the schematic with classic Spring. - Retest of secondary support at $81800. - The support held at $81800 and we trade sideways or toward primary support which has become resistance at $84800. - Most probable, trade up through primary support $84500 to $86463 and then retest primary support $84500 on Sunday night closing CME gap. Not Financial Advice. Anything can happen in an unregulated market.

Location over allocation $BTC

Bitcoin is next Return of the Sith!

@CaryKelly11 Just take it cheesy! 🧀

Parmigiano-Reggiano is the most protein dense food on earth at 34% protein per 100g. It has more protein than chicken and beef. It is one of the most efficient sources of bioavailable nutrition humans have ever created. Fermenting it for up to 1.5 years means -easier digestion -faster absorption -lactose free/zero carb It's an elite source of calcium (the best in an animal-based diet), loaded with vitamin K2, peptides that support gut health and glutamate. It's truly one of the greatest things to ever come out of Italy. One more thing about Parm. If you're like me, too much cheese can make you gain weight. The problem, I believe is because most cheese is a combo of fat, protein and carbs. Fat by itself is not obesogenic but when paired up with carbs causes gains. The good thing about parm is it's zero carb because there's no lactose, so in theory, no weight gain.

@CryptoHayes Legend. And I am stuck in the Alps on a low snow season. This is gut breaking good. JaPowww

Shredding pow is life.

@shaneparrish Covid jabs That was exactly that 💯

Most people choose belonging over accuracy. The desire to fit in overpowers the desire for truth. "A lot of the time, people will tell you, “Don’t care what other people think about you,” but we all care what other people think—often for very good reason, which is that if people think well of you, it benefits you in life. It puts you in a good position; you are rewarded for it. It helps you accomplish things. It makes you safer. It just feels good. Belonging is a critical part of being human. However, especially in the modern world, the desire to belong can often run counter to the desire to understand or be accurate. If you have to choose between “I could believe this thing and be ostracized or criticized or outcast from my community” or “I could believe this other thing, which may not be that accurate, but it will get me praised and rewarded and accepted by my community,” a lot of the time, the desire to belong overpowers the desire to understand." James Clear on The Knowledge Project

@PeterMcCormack Legend

If you abolish the European Commission completely you will cut 100% of your emissions and will be completely climate neutral creating real progress for the European people!

If you invented a machine that: - Runs on grass - Produces high-quality protein - Fertilises soil while operating - Builds topsoil - Requires zero electricity - Self-replicates - Provides 100+ byproducts (leather, tallow, gelatin, etc.) You'd win every environmental award. We call it a cow and want to ban it. Genius.

"Bitcoin and AI need each other and will form the basis of the future technology driven age of abundance. AI collapses the cost of intelligence, Bitcoin enforces the cost of reality"

@ninaturner Everyone on the federal minimum wage has an easy option: quit and go work for Elon as he is more generous, provides equity to his employees and he has a track record of growing the pie together for all of his employees. Uncle Sam the federal employer just can't keep up

Elon Musk is now worth $600 billion. Someone working at the federal minimum wage would have to work 9.45 million years to make that much money. We are all so much closer to being homeless than being a billionaire. Tax the rich.

“One of the sad signs of our times is that we have demonized those who produce, subsidized those who refuse to produce, and canonized those who complain.” — Thomas Sowell

@MissTickled @KingOfVitamins Where is this?

@KingOfVitamins There is a clinic in South India where 2 men are successfully treating cancer patients with high doses of vitamin C through IV.

Linus Pauling—the only person to win TWO unshared Nobel Prizes—spent the last 30 years of his life trying to tell us something about vitamin C. The medical establishment called him a quack. Turns out, he might have been right all along: 🧵

As a general rule, Americans demand freedom and are willing to accept a loss of comfort as a result. As a general rule, Europeans demand comfort and are willing to accept a loss of freedom as a result. Americans are like wild animals. Europeans are like domesticated animals. We are not the same.

300 likes on a digital #euro proposal. Most likely Lagarde and her friends. Thats it. wow this policy is soo popular. Oh wait, the EU loves implementing unpopular policies. Well on track once again

A teacher gave a balloon to every student, who had to inflate it, write their name on it, and throw it in the hallway. The teacher then mixed all the balloons. The students were given 5 minutes to find their own balloon. Despite a hectic search, no one found their balloon, At that point, the teacher told the students to take the first balloon they found and hand it to the person whose name was written on it. Within 5 minutes, everyone had their own balloon. The teacher said to the students, "These balloons arelike happiness. We will never find it if everyone is looking for their own. But if we care about other people's happiness, we'll find ours too." May your day be filled with happiness!🎉