Rafa Sarandeses

@CommodMkt @readwise save thread

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history. The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade. Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride. Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

Última edición de #NoSoloSuerte en tu inbox. Sé Impecable con tus Palabras. 3 Cosas que un Manager Debe Hacer Bien. Es Difícil ser Fiel a uno Mismo linkedin.com/pulse/s%25C3%2… via @LinkedIn

Check out the latest article in my newsletter: La Intensidad: el Motor de los que Consiguen Cosas Enormes. La Curiosidad es un Superpoder. No te Quejes y Sé Libre linkedin.com/pulse/la-inten… via @LinkedIn

#94. La Intensidad: el Motor de los que Consiguen Cosas Enormes. La Curiosidad es un Superpoder. No te Quejes y Sé Libre, by @rafasarandeses open.substack.com/pub/nosolosuer…

@JasonYanowitz @readwise save thread

2/ from gpt4 to AGI: counting the OOMs - ai progress is rapid. gpt-2 to gpt-4 went from preschooler to smart high schooler in 4 years - we can expect another jump like that by 2027. this could take us to agi - progress comes from 3 things: more compute, better algorithms, and "unhobbling" (making models less constrained) - compute is growing ~0.5 orders of magnitude (OOMs) per year. that's about 3x faster than moore's law - algorithmic efficiency is also growing ~0.5 OOMs/year. this is often overlooked but just as important as compute - "unhobbling" gains are harder to quantify but also huge. things like RLHF and chain-of-thought reasoning - we're looking at 5+ OOMs of effective compute gains in 4 years. that's another gpt-2 to gpt-4 sized jump - by 2027, we might have models that can do the work of ai researchers and engineers. that's agi (!!) - we're running out of training data though. this could slow things down unless we find new ways to be more sample efficient - even if progress slows, it's likely we'll see agi this decade. the question is more "2027 or 2029?" not "2027 or 2050?"

1/ I finally read Leopold Aschenbrenner's essay series on AI: Situational Awareness Everyone, regardless of your interest in AI, should read this. I took notes, they're sloppy but figured I'd share. Welcome to the future:

@NathanLands @readwise save thread

It's been a week since OpenAI blessed some ChatGPT pro users with GPT-4V. It's so insane what you can do with multi-modal ChatGPT. Here are 13 incredible examples:

@JSMontoyaM Gracias @JSMontoyaM !

Esta es bestial @rafasarandeses

@jeremygiffon @readwise save thread

Went on the biggest finance podcast in the world. Woke up to a ton of texts. Here’s six ideas that seem to have surprised my investor friends…

@AskCoachKev @readwise save thread

Struggling to lose your belly fat? Do exactly as I say in the thread below (You'll lose a few pounds each week and are guaranteed to flatten your stomach)

@FoundersPodcast @readwise save thread

The extreme mindset of a young Arnold Schwarzenegger: 1. You are a winner, Arnold. I wrote this down and put it where I would see it. I repeated it a dozen times a day. 2. My drive was unusual, I talked differently than my friends; I was hungrier for success than anyone I knew. 3. I had this insatiable drive to get there sooner. Whereas most people were satisfied to train two or three times a week, I quickly escalated my program to six workouts a week. 4. I'd always been impressed by stories of greatness and power. Caesar, Charlemagne, Napoleon were names I knew and remembered. I wanted to do something special, to be recognized as the best. 5. I was literally addicted. 6. I didn't care what I had to go through to get it. 7. My mind was totally locked into working out and I was annoyed if anything took me away from it. 8. My weight room was not heated, so naturally in cold weather it was freezing. I didn't care. I trained without heat, even on days when the temperature went below zero. 9. I had a photographer take pictures at least once a month. I studied each shot with a magnifying glass. 10. I sacrificed a lot of things most bodybuilders didn’t want to give up. I just didn't care, I wanted to win more than anything. And whatever it took to do it, I did. 11. Every day I hear someone say, "I'm too fat. I need to lose twenty-five pounds, but I can't. I never seem to improve." I'd hate myself if I had that kind of attitude, if I were that weak. 12. I listened only to my inner voice, my instincts. 13. People's ideas were small. There was too much contentment, too much acceptance of things as they'd always been. 14. My own thinking was tuned in to only one thing: becoming Mr. Universe. In my own mind, I was Mr. Universe; I had this absolutely clear vision of myself up on the dais with the trophy. It was only a matter of time before the whole world would be able to see it too. And it made no difference to me how much I had to struggle to get there. 15. Once I was over the initial disappointment of losing, I began trying to understand exactly why I had lost. I tried to be honest, to analyze it fairly. I still had some serious weaknesses. For me, that was a real turning point. 16. I was relying on one thing. What I had more than anyone else was drive. I was hungrier than anybody. I wanted it so badly it hurt. I knew there could be no one else in the world who wanted this title as much as I did. 17. I had thought perhaps he had some special exercises, but that wasn’t true. He concentrated on the standard exercises. That was his "secret" —concentration. 18. I started training in an area where there were no distractions. 19. I had lists and charts of the things I needed to concentrate on pasted all over. I looked at them every day before I began working out. It became a twenty-four-hour-a-day job; I had to think about it all the time. 20. I continued doing precisely what I knew I needed to do. In my mind, there was only one possibility for me and that was to go to the top, to be the best. 21. I remember certain people trying to put negative thoughts into my mind, trying to persuade me to slow down. But I had found the thing to which I wanted to devote my total energies and there was no stopping me. 22. They weren't mentally prepared for intensive championship training; they weren't thinking about it. I knew the secret: Concentrate while you're training. Do not allow other thoughts to enter your mind. 23. When I went to the gym I got rid of every alien thought in my mind. 24. I wanted to create an empire.

@thesigmamindset @readwise save thread

8 TED-TALKS THAT WILL TEACH YOU MORE THAN A 4-YEAR DEGREE:

@petergyang @karpathy @readwise save thread

Andrej Karpathy is a legendary AI researcher who helped start OpenAI. He recently gave a talk on how to craft great GPT prompts that almost everyone missed. I watched the 40 min talk - here's @karpathy's top 5 tips to make AI work better for you:

Hoy, edición 18 de #NoSoloSuerte: 1. ¿A Mano o a Máquina? 2. Las Cosas Pequeñas te Harán Grande. 3. Ataja los Básicos Primero. Los atletas entrenan. Los artistas ensayan. Por eso, todas las semanas ayudo a tu cerebro a hacer flexiones. open.substack.com/pub/nosolosuer…

@sharyph_ @readwise save thread

A New Era of Blogging has started with AI Tools. If you can utilize AI correctly, it is easy to Land #1 Page of Google. (in fact, that is what I did). Here are my favorite 10 AI tools for Bloggers.

@thesigmamindset @readwise save thread

14 PSYCHOLOGY TRICKS YOU MUST LEARN TO CONTROL ANY SITUATION:

@dickiebush Sales

If you designed the world's education curriculum, what's the first skill you would teach?

@parkerworth @readwise Save thread

I just interviewed one of the Hollywood storytelling kings. Will Smith once said, “No one is better than this guy at finding what is most authentic in every moment of a story.” Here’re the 6 storytelling secrets he gave me (and how to apply them to your business):

@rezkhere @aaditsh @readwise save thread

ChatGPT just released their plugins to everyone. From talking like a human to playing chess to solving quantum physics problems, there is nothing plugins can't do 🤯 Here are the craziest things ChatGPT can do now that no other tool can👇

'Fusión Generacional': la diversidad que define a las organizaciones de éxito. Descubre cómo promover un entorno de trabajo inclusivo de la mano de @rafasarandeses y @VivianAcostaTLG , en este artículo de @el_pais talengo.com/rafael-sarande…

@thejustinwelsh @readwise save thread

My little one-person business does ~$189k/mo in revenue. It costs me $1,446/mo + 2.9% to run it. Here are the 12 no-code tools that run my business: ↓