Tom Rafferty

We're always interested to hear from #freelance analysts and data specialists with an interest in policy and economics in #asia. @TheEIU is covering 30+ economies in the region. Full details as below - please express interest directly to asiacontributors@eiu.com

Travel in Asia is still far from "normal", but is at least now on a recovery path. In the paper @TheEIU analyses which regional markets are best placed to take advantage of reviving travel demand. econ.st/3EAC4vS

India will ‘stick to its guns’ and maintain its neutral position on Russia, @rafferty_tom of the Economist Intelligence Unit @TheEIU tells CNBC. He says India probably won’t be penalized, given that it’s courted by the United States, Russia and China.

7) Additional strain on US-China ties adds to geopolitical divisions in the region, and bifurcation pressures. But, whether in terms of supply chains or financial systems, this unravelling is set to be slow.

6) Fiscal space to counter effects of the war is limited, given limited recovery of public finances from pandemic and higher borrowing costs. Monetary tightening in most markets is proceeding, following the Fed, but unlikely to be an effective tool against current inflation.

1) Latest @TheEIU white paper covers the impact of the war on Asia - a few takeaways:

Structural unemployment will become more pronounced, as labour force skills lag industrial transition. This will increase the bargaining power of skilled workers. An expansion of the state welfare system or improvement of the in‑work benefits could help moderate wage growth.

Youth unemployment will likely hit a historical high in 2022. The persistence of high levels of youth unemployment will eventually hurt consumption.

1) One of China's biggest economic challenges this year is under/unemployment. Official data is stable but incomplete, failing to capture unemployed floating rural migrant workers and also kept low by a well-developed gig economy. viewpoint.eiu.com/analysis/artic…

7/ Last year Asian govts came through w more ambitious climate change pledges & this year should focus on beginning to implement them. A national carbon pricing and trading in Japan will be one to watch.

6/ Some travel recovery in Asia, but it will lag that globally, reinforcing importance of domestic tourism & consumption. China's domestic duty-free shopping market has boomed during the pandemic & we expect four-fold growth to 2025.

1) On the cusp of the Year of the Tiger, some predictions and things to watch in Asia over the next 12 months from @TheEIU eiu.com/n/asia-what-to…