Well St Euglen
144 posts
KeyBanc Downgrades $AAPL to Underweight from Sector Weight, PT $250
Analyst comments: “We are downgrading Apple to Underweight with a $250 price target (based on 19x 2027 EV/EBITDA and 27.5x P/E). Our KeyBanc Latitude Data (KFLD) shows indexed spending declined 2% month over month, below the three-year average increase of 9%, marking another month of below-trend growth.
While we believe near-term expectations are reasonable, we see several risks: (1) slowing iPhone builds amid price increases, weak U.S. upgrade activity, and changing device subsidy models; (2) 2027 expectations for Mac, iPad, and Wearables that are likely to move lower; and (3) slower unit growth, which is likely to reduce growth in Apple’s user base and pressure Services. At 35x P/E, we believe Apple’s valuation is too expensive for these risks.
Our rationale is outlined in detail in the note. In short, we see U.S. carriers pulling back on device subsidies, slowing upgrade rates, and international markets needing to carry more of the growth burden, which becomes more challenging in a rising price environment. We believe consensus iPhone growth of 8% in 2027 is too aggressive. Near-term estimates appear reasonable, but with price increases for Mac and iPad, we see revenue estimates at risk. Combined with slower unit growth, this results in slower user growth and leads us to forecast Services growth decelerating to 7% in fiscal 2027, well below the consensus expectation of approximately 12%.
With Apple trading at approximately 24.5x our fiscal 2027 EV/EBITDA estimate and approximately 35x P/E, we believe the stock is overvalued relative to its historical valuation and view its premium of more than two standard deviations to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as unwarranted. We are updating our estimates based on our latest assumptions for unit volumes and average selling prices.”
Analyst: Brandon Nispel
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Clear Street Initiates Coverage on $OSS with Buy Rating, PT $20
Analyst comments: “We would be buyers at current levels, as the recent pullback leaves OSS valued closer to slower-growing defense hardware peers even as orders accelerate.
OSS is a differentiated supplier of rugged AI compute infrastructure as defense procurement shifts toward autonomy, edge AI, and software-defined warfare. The company already supplies compute systems for the P-8 Poseidon, where cumulative contracted revenue has exceeded $65 million, with expansion underway into U.S. Army vehicle programs, commercial aerospace, and medical imaging.
We forecast revenue increasing from approximately $32 million in fiscal 2025 to nearly $67 million by fiscal 2028, with adjusted EBITDA improving from a loss to roughly $7.4 million. In our view, the market continues to value OSS as a niche hardware supplier rather than an emerging provider of defense AI infrastructure.”
Analyst: Brian Dobson
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Korea’s single-stock leveraged ETF AUM surged from about $3B in late May to $10B+ at the June peak.
It has since dropped to roughly $6B by July 13.
Leverage Shares ETFs@LeverageETFs
The wait is over. Two ways to trade SK Hynix are now live: ➜ $SKHX: 2x the daily move ➜ $SKHZ: -1x the daily move Trade the memory cycle from either side — with management fees 40% lower than the market average.
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Jefferies Reiterates Buy Rating on $UBER, PT $110; ER Preview
Analyst comments: “We are looking for evidence that Mobility bookings can sustain high-teens constant-currency growth through 4Q26, supported by continued acceleration in the U.S. throughout the second half. In Delivery, we are monitoring the drivers needed to sustain growth as comparisons become more difficult in the second half, while paying particular attention to U.S. restaurant share, contributions from Grocery & Retail and new geographies, and expansion in underpenetrated markets.
We also believe commentary on 2026 margins could help address a key source of uncertainty, given limited visibility beyond the 2Q outlook. Guidance for 2Q implies continued bookings growth of more than 20% on a constant-currency basis despite ongoing macroeconomic volatility, along with approximately 60 basis points of sequential improvement in incremental margin. We expect U.S. Mobility to accelerate on tailwinds from the World Cup, insurance cost relief, newer ride modes, and the absence of weather-related headwinds that affected 1Q.
Beyond results and guidance, we expect management to highlight progress on smaller autonomous vehicle partnerships in the U.S., which could help alleviate some disintermediation concerns related to Waymo and Tesla.
We will also be listening for new disclosures on affordability initiatives, products designed for tier-two and smaller markets, advertising growth, details on Grocery & Retail initiatives, and momentum for Uber One. We will also monitor capital allocation plans following UBER’s decision to increase its stake in Delivery Hero.
Any commentary suggesting further increases in the Delivery Hero stake could be met with caution by the market despite clear benefits to UBER’s scale, geographic diversification, and cross-selling opportunities. Concerns could include: (1) reduced cash available for share repurchases, particularly given autonomous vehicle purchase commitments; (2) potential constraints on operational flexibility, especially if UBER invests to stimulate growth at Delivery Hero; and (3) existing concerns about UBER’s long-term organic growth prospects.”
Analyst: John Colantuoni
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Google $GOOGL agreed to buy 100% of the initial output from the Steel River solar + battery project in Arkansas, per FT.
The project is expected to deliver 1.6GW of solar and 2GWh of battery storage by 2029, enough to power 315,000+ homes/year.
At full buildout: 2.5GW solar and 2.9GWh storage.
First Solar $FSLR will supply the domestically sourced panels, with batteries coming from LG’s Phoenix plant.
The deal is a virtual power purchase agreement as Google looks to offset rising data center power use.
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SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS: IT IS NOT REVIEWING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING AMERICAN DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
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South Korea 🇰🇷 plans to ease FX rules in 2H to expand global use of the won, per Bloomberg. The reforms include easier won liquidity access for foreign financial institutions, more won-denominated investment products for foreign investors & incentives for trade settled in won.
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Jefferies raised $ABNB PT to $175 & kept a Buy rating.
The firm says Airbnb has several topline tailwinds into results, including Reserve Now Pay Later, more flexible cancellations, simplified fees, World Cup bookings, and faster hotel growth.
Jefferies notes product improvements added a 4% bookings tailwind in Q1, while Airbnb web traffic accelerated from +2% YoY in Q4 to +8% in Q1 and +15% in Q2.
The firm is also watching for more upside to Airbnb’s FY26 EBITDA margin outlook, currently guided to at least 35%.
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China smartphone shipments fell 4.3% in Q2, but Apple and Huawei both grew roughly 20% YoY as consumers either bought premium devices or skipped upgrades.
Globally, smartphone shipments fell 6.7%, with $AAPL and Samsung holding up best.
IDC says memory costs are up nearly 300% YoY and now account for over 65% of low-end phone bill of materials, pressuring budget Android vendors like Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo.
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UBS upgraded $FCEL to Buy and raised its price target to $27 from $22.
UBS says FuelCell can help address a supply gap as competitors focus on larger-scale orders, with the Fit Energy deal and Siemens partnership as key catalysts.
The firm expects the Siemens collaboration to accelerate commercialization of scalable 100MW+ fuel cell power solutions, while Fit Energy’s planned capacity expansion could support a re-rating as execution scales.
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$BP expects a ~$1B Q2 writedown tied to energy transition assets, after up to $5B in low-carbon impairments earlier this year. Oil trading improved slightly from an exceptional Q1, refining margins rose to $29.60/bbl from $16.90, and net debt fell to $22B-$23B.
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CleanSpark $CLSK signed a 20-year, $6.6B data center lease with an undisclosed high-investment-grade global tech company for its Sandersville, Georgia campus.
The lease covers 175MW of critical IT load, with deliveries expected to begin in Q4 2027.
Contracted revenue could rise to $11.6B if extension options are exercised.
The tenant also signed an LOI and exclusivity agreement for CleanSpark’s 885MW Texas portfolio.
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Beam Global $BEEM reported preliminary Q2 revenue above $8.5M, up 170%+ from Q1 and 20%+ YoY.
Preliminary GAAP gross margin came in around 15% to 18%, helped by higher volumes and cost reductions.
Revenue came from multiple areas including defense, drone batteries, AI robotics, wildfire detection, battery storage, off-grid EV charging, smart city infrastructure and telecom.
The company also reported its first commercial sale in the Middle East and continued smart city deployments across 30+ cities in five countries.
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DeepSeek is already weighing a new funding round with a 37% valuation jump, just one month after raising $7B, per FT.
The new round would reportedly value the Chinese AI startup at about $71B pre-money, up from $52B post-money in its first round.
FT says the new capital would support DeepSeek’s infrastructure buildout, including its own data center, more AI chips, AI agent development, and hiring across core research teams.
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$TSEM is planning a $3B Japan expansion to boost 300mm silicon photonics, silicon germanium, and advanced packaging capacity.
Japan will provide $1B in grants to support the project.
First phase: repurpose the Arai facility and expand Fab 7 output, with production readiness expected in Q4 2027.
Tower also updated its 2028 model to target $3.6B revenue and $1.2B net profit.
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$ANGO Q4 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $86.61M (Est. $80.24M) 🟢
🔹 EPS: $(0.07) (Est. $(0.09)) 🟢
FY Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $336M-$341M (Est. $314M) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EPS: ($0.29)-($0.24) (Est. $(0.20)) 🔴
🔹 Med Tech Net Sales Growth: 12%-15%
🔹 Med Device Net Sales Growth: Flat
🔹 Gross Margin: 54%-55%
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $13.0M-$16.0M
Q4 Segment Net Revenue:
🔹 Med Tech: $150.0 million; +18.4% YoY
🔹 Med Device: $170.2 million; +2.5% YoY
Other Q4 Metrics:
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $3.3 million
🔹 Med Device Net Sales: $44.8 million; +1.1% YoY
Comments:
🔸 “Full-year Med Tech growth of more than 18% reflects the continued progress of our strategic transformation, as our innovative platform technologies across cardiology and interventional oncology took share in large, fast-growing global markets.”
🔸 “Med Tech represented 47% of our total revenue in fiscal 2026, up approximately 22% from when we began our strategic transformation in 2020.”
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Wells Fargo $WFC:
Revenue: $21.9B
Adj. EPS: $1.73
Implied move: ~5.1%
(5/5)
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Bank earnings kick off Q2 earnings season tomorrow.
Here’s a preview using @PPLXfinance:
JPMorgan:
Revenue: $51.1B; +12% YoY
Adj. EPS: $5.59; +29% YoY
Implied move: ~3.6%
$JPM should have a solid quarter.
🧵 (1/8)
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Citigroup $C
Revenue: $23.7B; +10% YoY
Adj. EPS: $2.72; +40% YoY
Implied move: ~4.6%
(4/5)
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