Raphael Olszyna-Marzys

@ojblanchard1 Yep never underestimate this administration’s recklessness…

Given their stated goal of bringing high tech manufacturing back to the US, the Trump administration did something apparently strange this weekend. They removed the high tariffs on Chinese imports of high-tech goods, from semiconductors to laptops. Why? Because they got hit by reality. The reality is called global supply chains. Under the high tariffs, the domestic firms which rely on foreign intermediates hated it. And even more so the domestic firms that produce abroad and import the final products. I have no doubt they made their unhappiness very clear. White House had to retreat. The lesson: Tariffs may hurt the other country. But they may hurt you more. If you are going to play that game, choose carefully, so you do not have to give up later and look weak. Lesson learned? I would not bet on it.

I think its the signal. Now people know he WILL capitulate if the shit hits the fan, which is exactly what everyone assumed three months ago...

Your economy was the envy of the world. Wtf are you doing?

The difficult last mile ... Inflation troughed at the end of last year. Services inflation is proving more persistent and core goods deflation is coming to an end. 1m annualised core CPI >3m change > 6m change > 12m change #USeconomy #Fed #CPI #Inflation

A cooling US labour market. The wedge between the household survey (from which the U/R is calculated) and the Establishment one (Payrolls) is huge - biggest in history if you exclude the pandemic months. Not clear which one is wrong, but these have to converge #macro #Fed

A mixed employment report. Good Feb NFP, but big negative revision to Jan. At the same time, average hours worked rebounded out of recession level. Total hours worked are now more in line with payrolls, pointing to decent labour mkt #USlabourmarket #Fed #Macro

Payrolls massively surprised in Jan. But average work week fell into recession territory, meaning flat total hours worked over past 3 months. ISM points to weak jobs but Fed's Beige Book is more positive. Important NFP release today #economics #macro #economy #Fed #research

Yes that’s right. probably not massively. Balance sheets remain pretty healthy, on average, and net wealth is being boosted by higher equity and house prices

Another interesting point is that almost all of the 'exccess savings' that are left, here defined as deposits and money market funds, sit at the very top of the income distribution. My best guess is that the savings rate will pick up in 2024 and the pace of consumer spending fall

Ongoing discussion about the role of 'excess savings' and how much is left - all depends on your counterfacactual. But pretty clear from that chart that households shifted money from their savings accounts into their checking accounts to fund spending in past few years.

@DomWh1te Maybe that latest cpi print will bring that persistence factor down again:)

Finally some disinflation visible in Powell's favourite measures of inflation!

@DomWh1te Ok I kinda read it as tight for the wrong reasons, but that might be my UK bashing bias:)

@DomWh1te Wasn't he referring to this? arguably not much worse than the US but worse than 'Europe' & Japan

Headline inflation down on the back of lower food at home & energy prices. But not much of a disinflationary trend in core basket, in fact 1m>3m>6m annualised change. On balance, data point to another #Fed hike in early Mary #USeconomy #USinflation

OK, where do I buy this jacket?

@RobinBrooksIIF Quite an odd way to interpret the data. Drop in delivery times more likely a reflection of normalisation of supply chains / production. Other high-frequency data do point to quite a strong pick-up in (services) activity

The supposed China reopening boom is the ultimate mirage. Delivery times in China's manufacturing PMI fell to shorter-than-normal in Feb (black), joining the US (red) and Germany (blue) in negative territory. There is no reopening boom. Only a deflationary global shock...

@GaryLineker 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

This is sensational. Not a hint of irony. Quite brilliant. 👏🏻👏🏻

Similar adjustment is under way in the UK with #houseprices on track to drop by 10% yoy by mid-year. Bigger problem for UK vs US economy, with a much greater % of mortgages being rolled over at any given time. Not sure #BoE can really push rates close to 5% given this weakness