Andrew C

@SupplySignalAI @PhilipJL_Sparta 💯 & 💯 on those solutions. Larger picture this needs to be a nuanced debate instead of “jones act bad, kill jones act”

Short-term reform that actually works: decouple the build requirement from the manning requirement during declared national security emergencies. Foreign hull, US crew, still Jones Act qualified. Korea delivers a comparable product tanker for around $45M. US yards price the same vessel at $130M. That $85M gap is what killed domestic newbuilding, not labor costs. Reinstate Construction Differential Subsidies at even 30-40% of the cost differential and the economics on domestic hulls change permanently. Congress killed CDS funding in the early 1980s and the fleet has been aging ever since. The short-term play is keeping cargo moving with American mariners aboard while the yards catch up. One policy tweet can't gut a crewed American vessel, even if the keel was laid in Ulsan.

Some thoughts on the Jones Act Waiver: President Trump has signed a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act. This is wider in both scope (all products, not just crude) and duration (60 days vs. the 30 days initially discussed) than parts of the market had been anticipating. - Freight economics — less dramatic than some anticipate, but in a market of such strong backwardation, the ability to bypass BORCO blending can save days and a few cpg on delivered values into both PADD-1 and PADD-5. - The expected impact on actual freight rates, however, will likely be minimal. For example, Houston–New York: ~$1.9M vs. Jones Act ~$1.95–$1.985M (on $90k/day TCE basis). - The impact into PADD-5 should be bigger. Houston–Los Angeles: ~$4.0M vs. Jones Act ~$4.83M on the same TCE — a wider spread, though JA rates on this run have been firm near $90k/day for 3–4 months, reflecting structural tightness. - In terms of impacts on a product basis, distillates should see the largest impact. PADD-1 and PADD-5 distillate premiums were already elevated, making these flows economically viable and helping boost volumes on these routes. - Gasoline: RBOB USGC–NYH arb is ~12 cpg out of the money on JA vessel economics. The waiver alone likely won't unlock gasoline flows unless CBOB/RBOB spreads widen. Alkylate flows from P3 to P5 might be a more viable first mover given octane tightness in P5. - Overall, plenty of non-US flagged tonnage in the USGC, currently deployed on LatAm routes, could pivot to PADD-1 or PADD-5 if the economics are right. More vessels are already ballasting toward the Gulf. The 60-day duration makes repositioning more attractive. - As such, this should be bullish TC14, whilst mildly bearish HOGO. The impact on gasoline (TA Arb), jet, or crude should all be quite minor. - Thinking a little further out, this can be seen as a first, soft attempt to manage US domestic prices. As and when this fails to bring down pump prices and the political cost of higher oil prices rises, the market is likely to become more and more wary of harder measures, including potential export bans on products.

@SupplySignalAI @PhilipJL_Sparta 100% right, we need short term reform and long term strategy to fix that

Philip's right that $70k/day covers today's P&L. The real risk is newbuilding: nobody orders a $130M Jones Act tanker on 25-year amortization when waiver extension is a policy tweet away. The domestic fleet is already 20+ years old. A few waiver cycles creates a 10-year replacement gap. That's the atrophy.

@NorCalifPatriot @centerofnone @johnkonrad Jones Act only applies to domestic US trade between US ports.

@centerofnone @johnkonrad I am not a lawyer, and not a maritime lawyer, but I think the Jones Act requires US built, US crew, and US owned not just flagged.

Many ships use a flag of convenience. They choose to register in a country with lower taxes/fees, less stringent safety requirements, and less stringent labor laws. This saves the ship owners money. However, it used to be part of the job of the country the ship is registered in to protect them in places like the Strait of Hormuz. The US should protect the few US flagged vessels for free and charge other nations a fee for doing so. If ship owners don’t like it, ask the country they are registered in to protect them. The largest registries are Panama and Liberia neither of which have a Navy capable of doing so. @johnkonrad thoughts?

@Thackej @cpgrabow @Aarondklein @neeratanden @jbarro Being in favor of American transportation jobs doesn’t mean I hate America, cut the BS. You’re talking about real people here, specialized American workers with lives. If you want to cut their jobs to save a buck then fine, you can want that

@ready3take2 @cpgrabow @Aarondklein @neeratanden @jbarro What we have seen with Trump's tariffs is an accelerated pace of losing manufacturing jobs. That's what happens when you let your central planning vibes rule instead of paying attention to efficiency and free enterprise.

@neeratanden what's with this? what's progressive about giveaways to the tiny domestic shipping industry that raise consumer prices (especially in Puerto Rico and Hawaii)?

@StormCoker You’ll never discover the magic of the Oklahoma onion burger by sticking to the chains!

When you’re chasing this year, really try to eat at local restaurants. The world doesn’t need more Chipotle’s or Starbucks. It needs more original and locally owned restaurants

@PhilipJL_Sparta @SupplySignalAI Also not taking into account Jones Act shipping once the waiver is over. If it gets extended in a significant way and American ships & workers are undercut, what’ll remain of our ability to ship our own cargo?

@SupplySignalAI Very neat summary. I don't honestly know the details of the 60-day window, it will be for loadings I assume, and there'll be an expectation that it can/will be extended. A product export ban would be catastrophic for European distillates.

@AmyMcGrathKY This admins 60 day Jones Act waiver risks sidelining American ships & mariners in favor of cheaper foreign flagged & crewed ships. Same story, different sector.

Republicans said their tariffs would bring back manufacturing jobs. Turns out, Trump’s tariff policies are just a stupid tax on all of us that hurts the economy and kills jobs.

@cpgrabow @Aarondklein @neeratanden @jbarro What’s your end goal for America? More money seems to be the only thing that matters to you. When every job has been optimized or outsourced, when every efficiency has been realized, what’s left?

@ready3take2 @Aarondklein @neeratanden @jbarro Saving American industries and consumers money is not undercutting them.

@cpgrabow @Aarondklein @neeratanden @jbarro Again, undercutting American industry to save a buck. What would all those displaced pilots and flight attendants do? Go work for a think tank?

@Aarondklein @neeratanden @jbarro Let's stop pretending that making it costlier for Americans to buy American products from other Americans is somehow good for jobs or US industry. And no idea what @jbarro thinks, but being able to fly Emirates or any other foreign airline between US cities would be pretty cool.

@berard_xavier @WSJ Let’s extend it to US airfare- Delta, United, & American have had a monopoly for too long and American labor is super expensive. Air China can do it cheaper.

@WSJ The Jones Act basically forced us to use super expensive American ships and crews for all domestic shipping between US ports. Waiving it means foreign vessels can now compete on these routes, which should drop fuel transport costs significantly.

President Trump temporarily waived a century-old shipping law in a bid to lower the cost of moving oil, gas and other fuels around the U.S. Here’s how that would work. wsj.com/business/energ…

@nickregier @WSJ @grok Negligible. Even the CATO Institute admitted any savings from undermining American maritime jobs will likely be lost in larger macro movements

@WSJ @grok what’s the cost to consumer compare?

@SupplySignalAI @WSJ Wait wait wait…… $.80 per BARREL? 😂 that’s less than $.02/gallon

The math here is brutal. Jones Act tankers cost roughly 4x what an equivalent vessel runs on the global market, and that premium bakes into every barrel moved domestically. Gulf Coast to Northeast on a Jones Act hull can actually cost more per barrel than shipping the same crude across the Atlantic on a foreign tanker. NBER research puts the savings at around $0.80/barrel on diesel if you open domestic lanes to foreign competition. The problem: the US builds fewer than 5 commercial ships per year. On Day 61, the waiver expires and carriers face the exact same fleet shortage they started with. Nobody is ordering new Jones Act builds on a 60-day policy window. You don't fix a 100-year structural deficit with two months of relief.

@kilamxxxx @JohnStossel @realDonaldTrump Additionally, the military relies on US merchant mariners for sealift capacity and fuel. If you cut the Jones Act & offshore those civilian jobs to cheap foreign labor on exploitative contracts, you lose that US workforce and the ability to mobilize overseas

@kilamxxxx @JohnStossel @realDonaldTrump That’s part of it. Check out the US steel industry. A large part of iron ore comes from MN and moves via JA ships to mills in IN and OH. Cutting the JA would hand that to cheaper Canadian fleets like CSL or Algoma, or cheaper intl fleets who could cut us off

Today @realDonaldTrump waived the "Jones Act” because the war increased the price of oil. The Jones Act raises all sorts of prices by giving U.S. shipping companies special treatment. But it shouldn’t be waived for 60 days. Here’s why it should be killed for good.

@JohnStossel @realDonaldTrump Cut air cabotage, end special treatment for US airlines. Air cabotage raises prices for US domestic airfare when other foreign airlines could run those routes cheaper.

@JDScholten 1000%. The president just made a move to undercut our US merchant marine too, more American jobs on the chopping block!

Just remember that the U.S. imports about 40% of vegetables and 60% of fruits. We’re offshoring our food supply! We need to grow more here. Food security is national security!!! 🇺🇸

@AMPmaritime @ArgusMedia Oh AND it undercuts American workers, just a heck of a deal all around

.@ArgusMedia data shows foreign vessels using the Jones Act waiver are currently charging Americans ~82% MORE PER BARREL than U.S.-flag tankers on similar routes. This 60-day Jones Act waiver exposes Americans to more international disruption. 🇺🇸🚢

Wait a minute. A Panamanian-flagged ship is going to charge $6.74/barrel when a Jones Act tanker is charging $3.70/bbls. I thought this was going to save money?

@PapaBear1532821 @AMPmaritime We don’t need to exploit workers in this country. Labor isn’t the issue here, it’s absence of policy to incentivize American shipbuilding. Skilled labor should be paid a livable wage.

@ready3take2 @AMPmaritime Yes. American shipyards are 5 times as expensive and 5 times longer than a shipyard in South Korea. Unions have destroyed American shipbuilding industry.

While America celebrates St. Patrick’s Day today, it’s important to remember that the strength of our domestic fleet doesn’t come from luck. 🍀 It comes from the Jones Act, ensuring that the vessels moving our goods are 🇺🇸-built, 🇺🇸-crewed and 🇺🇸-owned flying Old Glory!