Adam Andrews

@LynAldenContact In the stablecoin conversation, it surprised me how he seemed to get caught up on *conservation* of dollars / Egyptian pounds in a local scope - it's about the exchange rate and how that exchange rate permits marginal supply growth at a macro level.

I debated macro veteran Andy Constant on the topic of bitcoin treasury companies, exploring their risks and opportunities. And at the 68-minute mark, we switch to discussing the macro implications and financial plumbing details of stablecoins as a second topic.

@PeterSchiff Value is nonlinear w.r.t. adoption - you're comparing emerging and mature stores of value. That said, congrats to gold bugs last 12 months

Bitcoin was promoted as being digital gold. An improved modern version of gold that would act as a safe-haven in times of global uncertainty or geopolitical risk. This is Bitcoin's time to shine. Yet its being completely outshined by the barbaric relic it was designed to replace.

@zerohedge More to do with reserve asset status and trade flows, followed by the fiscal situation. Less so monetary policy

10Y 4.54%. Market will keep selling until Powell wakes up

A fantastic book and an extremely relevant read for the context to the forces motivating these tariffs.

FYI: 30 delta OTM VIX calls expiring one week out have been getting pretty rich, especially right after market open. NFA

@biancoresearch I had thought AP meant Authorized Participants. Seems like a great time to be a market maker!

4/4 So, what does this all mean? SPY is the favorite vehicle of traders in stocks. VOO and IVV are effectively the same thing but attract a more long-term investor (or allocator) money. Traders plowed so much money into SPY after Trump paused the tariffs late in the day that the APs (market makers) could not keep up, and the price moved to a substantial premium to its NAV. The APs (Associated Person) shorted VOO and IVV as a hedge, causing their discounts. Collectively, these three funds are worth over $1.6 trillion, and yesterday's trading was so wild that the APs could not keep everything in line. --- So, how stressed are markets? You better check your S&P 500 ETF levels to make sure you're not getting a bad price. This has not been the case, to this degree, in 17 years.

1/4 How stressed are markets? By this metric, the most in 17 years. --- SPY = The S&P 500 Index Trust. This was the first ETF created in 1993 and is one of the largest at $575 billion. ---- The middle panel is SPY's Net Asset Value (NAV). The price closed at a 90-basis-point premium to the underlying value of the assets. The last time anything like this happened was 2008. To emphasize, not even in the crazy days of 2020 did its divergence get this big.

@AssaultCS2 The success of MSTR is path dependent, the success of BTC arguably less so. MSTR carries additional risks including management risk and leverage risk.

You can just do things

@LynAldenContact The first derivative of M2 has grown permanently post-Covid. I bet you would find an increased correlation among all risk assets pairwise (except LT Treasuries). And I bet this continues into the future and even accelerates as the debt/liquidity situation progresses.

I would propose that this is in large part due to liquidity. Fiscal deficits, and liquidity conditions in general, increased their scope and importance post-COVID. The emergence of fiscal dominance.

. @realDonaldTrump You could have brought @RobertKennedyJr into the fold to win over the independent votes and then thrown him to the wolves in the senate hearings. Instead you and @JDVance kept your word and leaned in to get this through. Thank you on behalf of myself. My kids. And my kids kids.

@LynAldenContact This is terrible 😢

Crazy to see. That neighborhood is around where I grew up.

Just google “ordo amoris.” Aside from that, the idea that there isn’t a hierarchy of obligations violates basic common sense. Does Rory really think his moral duties to his own children are the same as his duties to a stranger who lives thousands of miles away? Does anyone?

@LauraRbnsn @DanielCowper Maybe undone in instance, but not in principle. Therefore the gentiles are grafted in due to their actions. But still it is not justified to throw the children’s food to the dogs.

@DanielCowper Unique to Matthew and also pretty clearly undone by the great commission. “Go therefore to all the gentiles.”

I just can't get over how insanely angry it makes me watching people respond to this with "Yeah! That's what the Bible teaches!" It is translated at a fourth grade reading level, and it is free online. You are all idiots.

Pretty funny to see people who blamed the problems of the last four years on things that happened five or six years ago suddenly pivot to criticizing Trump for not successfully lowering the price of fresh produce that went onto shelves during the Biden presidency.

Wishing peace to all this weekend.

Emergency Press Conference: Ripple is undermining American prosperity, freedom, and Bitcoin. Ripple is actively lobbying to stop a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in the U.S. while pushing their centralized, corporate-controlled token. We will not stand for it.

They can take your X account. They can take your TikTok account. They can take your YouTube account. They can take your Facebook account. They can take your Instagram account. They can't take your nostr account.

@LynAldenContact Check out that curling over too. Nice data set

When the dollar surges vs other currencies, foreign countries tend to trim some of their treasury holdings to support their currencies. This recent move has now reached similar levels of selling pressure as prior dollar tops.

@Cernovich From everything I’ve seen, James Lindsay hides behind a lot of sophistry while in fact being retarded.

Have James Lindsay and the trigeronomy podcast had on Jake Shields or are they “shutting down conversation” and using “cancel culture” by gate keeping who is or is not an acceptable podcast guest? See how stupid those guys sound? I can use the same word salad against them.

@SullyMichaelvan Using options to get in or out makes great sense. In either case you are selling the volatility which is why you need less bitcoin than a simple sale. The flip side is you have a bit more drawdown risk when selling CC

How much #Bitcoin does a person need to retire? Based on a 25% CAGR and an expected family income of $100k per year, this calculator says it is 5 BTC. Let's look at how this compares to options strategies with $IBIT and $MSTR 👇🧵