Patricia Marins@pati_marins64
Nothing Will Be the Same for a Long Time
The world we knew has changed and will remain different for years to come. We were still recovering from the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine when the new war, started by the United States and Israel, struck hard at the infrastructure of Iran, the Persian Gulf countries, Israel itself, and Oman.
These bombings were not just military actions, they delivered a deep blow to the global economy. Oil, natural gas, fertilizers, semiconductors, chemicals, metals, and even helium saw their supply drastically reduced. Recovery will be slow and painful.
The Price of Destruction
The damage to the region’s metallurgical infrastructure was massive and concentrated on strategically vital points. In Iran, the Mobarakeh Steel Company complex suffered the collapse of blast furnace structures and critical cooling systems in its direct reduction units and electric arc furnaces.
Reconstruction costs are estimated at US$ 6 billion, with a recovery timeline of 2 to 3 years.
In Bahrain, the impact focused on Aluminium Bahrain, where the attack severely damaged reduction lines and logistics, causing structural losses of US$ 2.5 billion. In the United Arab Emirates, strikes against Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) facilities in Abu Dhabi and Dubai resulted in estimated structural damage of US$ 4.2 billion.
This coordinated destruction in the three countries created a major gap in the global supply of primary metals, sharply raising operational costs and commodity prices worldwide.
In the oil and gas sector, the destruction was even more brutal. The Kharg Island Terminal, Iran’s main crude oil export point, lost docking berths, pipelines, and giant storage tanks.
Estimated cost: US$ 12 billion. The Asaluyeh and South Pars complex, the heart of gas and condensate processing, had fractionation towers, heat exchangers, and control systems incinerated, another US$ 10 billion in losses.
The Abadan and Isfahan refineries, essential for gasoline and diesel production, were also badly damaged. When pipelines, gas lines, and pumping stations are added, the total cost for Iran’s energy sector alone reaches US$ 30.5 billion.
The biggest problem is not just the money. It’s logistics. Iran needs to import turbines, special valves, and compressors that have long global production queues. Without easy access to Western suppliers, returning to pre-war levels could take 3 to 4 years.
Israel also paid a heavy price. Its technology and chemical centers were hit. Semiconductor plants, such as Intel’s facility in Kiryat Gat, lost clean rooms and precision equipment. Chemical complexes in Haifa and desalination plants suffered significant damage.
The total estimated cost is US$ 10 billion, with recovery times ranging from 6 months to 3 years.
In Iraq, the already fragile electricity and port infrastructure lost high-voltage substations, cranes at Umm Qasr port, and grain silos.
Approximate cost: US$ 5 billion. Recovery is expected to take 1 to 2 years.
In the United Arab Emirates, attacks hit the Fujairah Industrial Zone, fuel tanks, the port that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, and key gas fields and refineries such as Ruwais, Habshan, and Shah. Physical infrastructure costs exceed US$ 10 billion, with timelines from 6 months to 2 years.
Kuwait and Bahrain faced direct impacts on ships and refineries. Kuwait lost a large tanker and saw its facilities operating at minimum capacity. Estimated losses: US$ 3 billion. Bahrain had its Sitra refinery damaged and pipelines affected, with repair costs around US$ 800 million and a timeline of 9 to 14 months.
Oman was also hit, although on a smaller scale than its neighbors. Drone and missile strikes targeted key ports, damaging oil storage tanks and silos at Salalah, Duqm, and Sohar. Salalah, a major container and fuel hub outside the Strait of Hormuz, suffered fires in storage tanks and limited damage to cranes.
Read More in my Substack:
open.substack.com/pub/global21/p…
