Bear

Two things that will get you hurt as a trader: 1. Focusing too much on Macro (most macro guys don't ever make money, despite being informed). 2. Being a permabear. If you hit a short perfectly the gains are insane, but the odds are very low and you lose more than you win over time. It pays to be a bull in our economy.

You don’t need a new trading strategy. You need to stop repeating the same expensive mistakes. This used to be tedious to determine and required a ton of journaling. Now, all you need to do is download your trading dataset and use this AI prompt to figure out your strengths and weaknesses. Use this prompt with AI: “Analyze my trading dataset and do the following: • Identify the top 3–5 patterns responsible for the majority of my losses • Quantify exactly how much each one is costing me • Ensure the sample size is statistically meaningful • Identify my highest expectancy trade types based on: DTE, ticker, position size, day of week, setup, etc. For each, show: win rate average P/L total P/L sample size Then model 2 scenarios: 1. If I completely eliminate my worst-performing patterns 2. If I only trade my best-performing patterns Show how total P/L, win rate, and drawdowns would change in each scenario. Then create a clear, rules-based trading system including: what to trade what to avoid completely position sizing rules behavioral/day-of-week constraints Format everything clearly using tables and bullet points so it’s easy to make decisions from.” Most traders are sitting on years of data…but never actually use it to build an edge. You’d be surprised how useful this is.

The one intangible that made Michael Jordan so dangerous isn’t what you think. (And it’s a tool that, if you master it as a trader, you’re going to be consistently profitable). The trait I’m talking about is encapsulated in an answer he gave when asked if he worries about missing a big shot: “I never looked at the consequences of missing a big shot. When you think about the consequences you always think of a negative result." This is more profound than you think and it originates from understanding how the subconscious brain works. The subconscious brain governs the vast majority of how we operate 24/7. It “thinks” in visuals and it cannot process negatives. For instance, if you say “don’t think about a blue tesla.” The brain first has to create an image of a blue tesla and then decide to not think about it. This is why you’ll hear about people who crash into a pole and tell you that the only thought they had was “don’t hit the pole.” What you focus on is what you get. That’s no different than Jordan saying “Don’t miss this shot.” So how does this relate to trading? Well, because most traders are aware of their flaws. And yet, many repeat them over and over again. Why? One reason is self-talk. If you find yourself saying don’t overtrade, avoid 0DTE options, don’t exit early, etc. you are literally telling your unconscious mind to think about those things. Remember: what you think about is what you get. So if you keep saying ‘Don’t exit the trade early’... don’t be surprised when you keep making that mistake. A more effective way of communicating with yourself would be to put everything into the positive. “I’m only taking 5 trades today as long as they fit my criteria.” “I’m taking X% profits at these targets and then I’m going to let the rest ride.” If you’re a logical, left-brain thinker, I know this sounds a little woo-woo. Yet if you listen to any of the greats in sports, you’ll notice they all have this mindset in common. They visualize success. They train so that all they expect is success. They radiate confidence. So it’s no surprise that they are so successful. This isn’t to say you don’t need skill, talent, etc. Those are a given. But what goes on in between your ears… that’s where a lot of greats get tripped up. Test this out this week and see how it works.

When Gavin Baker speaks, tune in.

Imagine being a bear this week when antropic turns profitable and the team expects a war deal. We caught the long before the news hit today and sniffed out the war deal news before the crowd. Only @TFLabofficial

Insane call in the trading room this week by one of our market experts @themissinglinks . Keeping us ahead of the market and ignoring the noise on X

Most traders think exiting trades early is a discipline issue. It isn’t. It’s a clarity issue. Here are 3 tools to help you avoid exiting before the real move happens: 1. Predefined exit rules (before you enter the trade) - Targets to take profits. - An invalidation level - And conditions that would justify an early exit 2. Data on your trades What gets measured gets managed. Keep a running tally of how often price goes against you before hitting your target. What’s your average drawdown before a win? Without knowing these numbers, every pullback is going to have you second-guess yourself. 3. Acceptance of discomfort Good trades often feel wrong before they work. If you need certainty before entering or keeping a trade, you’ll keep cutting winners too early. This is precisely why data is so useful. It can give you clarity where you are likely to make mistakes so you can course correct.

The best traders don’t follow trades blindly…they verify first. This isn’t to say following someone else’s trade is a losing strategy by itself. But in order to be long term profitable, you need to understand the trade and context in which it was taken. If you don’t know why something works, you won’t know when to get out If you don’t have a repeatable, reliable strategy, your account will get cooked eventually. You’ll be staring at an account a fraction of its former value. If you’re following people and they aren’t teaching you how to think, they are setting you up for failure. No data = no edge. No edge = gambling. In our group, the goal isn’t just profitable trades. It’s building traders who don’t need to follow anyone, who can thrive without being fed which plays to take.

If you’re considering becoming a full-time trader… We interviewed the most profitable traders in our group (7–8 figures) and found some surprising commonalities. Here’s what actually helps you become and remain a profitable trader: 1 - Most still have a full-time job. Many said this helps them trade calmly and to avoid oversizing and overtrading. The income they made outside of trading MADE them better traders. So if you just lost your job and you’re considering trading full-time, also consider SOME sort of side income to take the pressure off. 2 - Psychology is just as important as intelligence. Impatience, over-sizing, revenge trading, over-trading, FOMO are a result of psychology/emotions and have very little to do with intellect. That’s precisely how many intelligent people blow up their accounts. If you’re going full-time, mastering your psychology is your job. 3 - Know your edge and stick to it. Our best traders all said they take fewer, more concentrated trades. Very rarely do they play 0DTE contracts. They’re not chasing every move. They’re selective and disciplined. 4 - Don’t do it alone. It’s impossible to keep up with the market today (according to Paul Tudor Jones). So if it’s too fast for him and his team, it’s certainly too fast for you. Trying to do this on your own will burn you out. This is especially true if you have a family. Which is why we created our trading group TFL. Because we know that a hive mind of experienced traders is going to raise the level of everyone in the group. This is especially true considering we have members who have been traders for several decades, have worked at the most well-known institutions running teams, and understand how the market works intimately. It’s an insane edge to have, not just for your trading, but so that you can have a life outside of trading. That said, we’re not for everyone. We’re not a call service for novice traders. We’re for those who have at least a few years under their belt, love to learn, and take this seriously. You see this as a skill to master that will help you make and protect your capital. If that sounds like you and you’d like to try us out, we have a 2-week trial period so you can do so nearly risk-free. Send us a DM for more info.

This was called to perfection in the group. Caught many multiples if you got long calls at this point. $MU

Love our members. Such an amazing group of people and nothing better than making money together.

This is awesome thanks @TFLabofficial 🔥🔥🔥The best trading room around! Love this place!

Pentagon Official’s Beijing Visit In Doubt Over $14B US Arms Package For Taiwan - FT ft.com/content/aecf40…

Knowing when markets are stabilized or amplified are key to trading. @redbadbear updates the room on $SPX gamma profiles multiple times a week. Having this information helps us decide trades, apply pressure, or back off and wait.

Short silver futures, down another 3 plus points that is $15,000 per contract just tonight and is still the BEST downside hedge and lucky for us we longed $NOW on Thursday via common and rolled calls to this week. @GranderTheGreat also has a nice $SOXS long to capture the semi froth / delta unwind. Only @TheTradeFlow

You don’t lose money trading because of news. You lose money because you don’t know how to contextualize news. And, to be fair, it’s not your lack of knowledge or research that your positions get hit by news and geopolitical uncertainty. It’s because you haven’t spent decades in the markets to have developed pattern recognition. The best traders can look at the price action of a few indicators and know what news to act on and what’s worth ignoring. And they can do this insanely quickly. Let’s be real. If you are trading on the side… If you have a wife and kids and you actually like spending time with them. It’s going to be insanely hard to… 1. Develop this pattern recognition on your own. 2. Watch the markets 12-16 hours a day. Heck, how many people put in the time and still got caught missing this entire rally? This is why we developed Trade Flow Lab. It’s led by @redbadbear and @themissinglinks , who both have several decades of experience in the markets. Not just trading alone, but leading teams in some of the most well-known institutions in the world. They watch the market all day every day and keep you up-to-speed, pointing out exactly what’s signal versus noise. This isn’t some hand-holding call service for novices who have no chance of being long-term profitable. This is for serious traders who want to get as much of an edge as possible and don’t want their positions to go to zero because they read the news wrong. If this sounds too good to be true, we get it. Most groups around trading are a big scam. We’ve all been in them. That’s why we offer a 2-week trial period for you to feel us out and make sure it’s a good fit. It’s literally cheaper than a 1-point move on ES futures. Want details? Just DM us.

Keep an eye out for $iren and $CRWV earnings today. Results will affect $NVDA which is getting substantial call flow. h/t @themissinglinks

Since the war broke out, metals have dumped on any negative war news. Recently, that trend has changed. Look at $silver and $copper charts. Both held up even with negative war headlines. When trading, always take note of trend changes, as they are often big opportunities to get high R/R plays. Something we're constantly monitoring for our members in TFL. @themissinglinks

Called out about 30 minutes ago in the group, up 25 since then. $SNDK $MU @themissinglinks

If you started trading around 2020 chances are you developed a lot of bad habits. This is especially true if you were copy-trading accounts on X. (Not too dissimilar to what’s going on right now). By the end of 2020 the market was on easy mode and you could blindly pick YOLO calls and make a killing. Subscription services geared toward copy trading ramped up big time. Everyone was posting screenshots of their insane gains. Life was good. And as soon as the Fed started QT all that changed. Accounts started blowing up left and right because they never had to learn the essentials of trading: ✅Proper position sizing. ✅Minimizing account drawdowns. ✅Understanding the macroenvironment and how liquidity affects the market. ✅Managing your emotions when things aren’t going your way. It was brutal. The smart traders realized the holes in their game and started truly learning what it took to be consistently profitable. ☑️They focused on high-quality setups. ☑️They learned about GEX, option flows, and reading charts. ☑️They put a priority on their mental health so they could remain sharp. The challenge? It’s time-consuming to do this. Over 70% of traders have a job outside of trading. Many also have families. They can’t and don’t want to spend 8 hours a day on X monitoring the news flow. This is why we created Trade Flow Lab. Not for the beginner who’s just looking for quick plays. But for the serious trader who wants… To continue to hone their own trading system. To learn new skills from other traders who have been in the game for decades. A place where market information is curated by experts 7 days a week so that they can condense their research into a few hours a day. You know there is more to life than trading. The money you make is not just to run up the score card… (okay maybe a little). But it’s really about what that extra time and money can do for you… That new car your family needs. Taking extra time for vacation and not feeling guilty about it. Helping to take care of your parents. That’s why we’re in this game. Trading should ENHANCE your life, not get in the way of it.