Reece Alexander

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Reece Alexander

Reece Alexander

@reeceApang

someone preferred invisible

Singapore Katılım Haziran 2013
189 Takip Edilen20 Takipçiler
𝖦𝗋𝗂𝗆𝖾𝗌 ⏳
One can very easily see all the good things LKY did and not utilize the more insane policies (particularly the overly harsh punishments) . The most insane trend in western culture rn is refusing to engage with any idea or thinker one shares ideological differences with. U know Einstein abandoned his pregnant wife and did all these awful things - are we just gonna ignore what he gave to physics? It's simply not a rational take
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Reece Alexander
Reece Alexander@reeceApang·
@elonmusk We will have a global telco! 1 provider - those suckers sea embedded cable providers will die!
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
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CryptoDoctor🦇🔊
CryptoDoctor🦇🔊@0xCrypto_doctor·
Concise and well explained. Thanks to @0xKickflip for bringing some clarity on @SmileeFinance
yuvi@crypto_yuvi

@SmileeFinance claims to be bringing convexity on-chain. While convexity is inherently already on-chain, this is a very cool primitive that improves convexity. Let's look at the LP side of a Decentralized Volatility Product (DVP). Short 🧵:

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Charlie Bilello
Charlie Bilello@charliebilello·
The best performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last 5, 10, 15, and 20 years...
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Robin Brooks
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks·
Biggest market puzzles 1. If global growth is so strong, why are oil prices flat? 2. Why no China reopening lift to commodity prices? 3. Why are yield curves inverted if there's no recession? 4. Why do so many people want to be long Euro? 5. Why has Fed pivot not lifted S&P 500?
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Charlie Bilello
Charlie Bilello@charliebilello·
2023 YTD Returns $TSLA: +44% $SHOP: +44% $NVDA: +39% $AMC: +35% $SQ: +33% $SPOT: +30% $TEAM: +28% $META: +26% $CRM: +24% $GME: +24% $NFLX: +22% $SNAP: +22% $AMZN: +22% $AMD: +16% $ETSY: +15% $PYPL: +15% $GOOG: +14% $AAPL: +12% $SNOW: +11% $ADBE: +10% $ZM: +9% $MRNA: +5% $MSFT:+3%
Charlie Bilello@charliebilello

2022 Returns $AAPL: -26% $MSFT: -28% $MRNA: -29% $GOOG: -39% $ADBE: -41% $ETSY: -45% $CRM: -48% $AMZN: -50% $GME: -50% $NVDA: -50% $NFLX: -51% $AMD: -55% $SNOW: -58% $SQ: -61% $PYPL: -62% $ZM: -63% $META: -64% $TSLA: -65% $TEAM: -66% $SPOT: -66% $SHOP: -75% $AMC: -76% $SNAP:-81%

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Charlie Bilello
Charlie Bilello@charliebilello·
Gold Return vs. US CPI Inflation Last 2 years... Gold: +4% CPI: +13% Last 5 years... Gold: +42% CPI: +20% Last 10 years... Gold: +16% CPI: +29% Last 15 years... Gold: +112% CPI: +41% Last 20 years... Gold: +422% CPI: +63% Last 40 years... Gold: +287% CPI: +204%
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Charlie Bilello
Charlie Bilello@charliebilello·
The average interest rate on US credit card balances has moved up to 19.07%. With data going back 1994, that's the highest rate we've ever seen, and 4.5% above the rate from a year ago.
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Alf
Alf@MacroAlf·
''Liquidity''. A crucial and widely misunderstood driver of financial markets. Let's explain what liquidity really means, and where it's headed next. A thread. 1/
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Charlie Bilello
Charlie Bilello@charliebilello·
The spread between 10-year and 1-year Treasury yields moved down to -1.26% last week, the most inverted curve since September 1981. The last 8 recessions in the US were all preceded by an inversion in this yield curve relationship.
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Charlie Bilello
Charlie Bilello@charliebilello·
Returns, Last 10 Years... Bitcoin $BTC: +132,941% NVIDIA $NVDA: +6,743% Tesla $TSLA: +5,735% AMD $AMD: +2,577% Netflix $NFLX: +1,634% Microsoft $MSFT: +962% Apple $AAPL: +931% Domino's $DPZ: 708% Amazon $AMZN: +606% Google $GOOGL: +418% S&P 500 $SPY: +223% Gold $GLD: +12%
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Charlie Bilello
Charlie Bilello@charliebilello·
Growth stocks underperformed Value stocks last year by 21.6%, the 2nd widest spread on record with data going back to 1979. Only 2000 (dot-com bubble bursting) showed a greater differential (-29.6%), which was followed by 6 more years of Value beating Growth (2001-2006).
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Alf
Alf@MacroAlf·
Excellent chart showing how earnings and valuations don't bottom together! Historically, stock prices bottom 6-9 months before EPS reach their low as multiples start to rise reflecting Fed cuts and accommodative policy ahead.
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Alf
Alf@MacroAlf·
Recession or soft landing? This is the most important question to answer in 2023. Let's see what the bond market is really saying. A thread. 1/
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CrypNuevo 🔨
CrypNuevo 🔨@CrypNuevo·
I posted this 2nd January: Relief rally Q1 FED Interest Rates pivot Q2 Bottom Q3-Q4 Of course we still need to wait and see where this pump takes us, but what do you guys think? 👍
CrypNuevo 🔨@CrypNuevo

So according to this analysis... FED Pivot will come in Q2 2023. Probably in May. What does usually happen after the FED pivots? SPX dumps hard. And in principle, BTC will follow. That's why I'm expecting a stock market and BTC bottom in Q3-Q4 2023. Relief rally end of Q1?🤔

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Alf
Alf@MacroAlf·
Record weekly inflows into EM debt and equity markets. Long EM was also the most consensus view I heard at a large investment bank conference in London last week.
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Alf
Alf@MacroAlf·
200+ bps cuts priced in only 18 months. For reference, in an average recession rates are cut by 300-350 bps over that time period.
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