Reed Esau

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Reed Esau

Reed Esau

@reedes

The bad kind of skeptic, coder, hiker, diver, skier, and soon-to-be traveller in my bougie camper van. I recently authored a book on dealing with bullsh*t.

Colorado Katılım Şubat 2008
155 Takip Edilen753 Takipçiler
Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
@Solvatdelectron Last libertarian candidate I can find Drew publicly supporting is Gary Johnson in 2016. Perhaps he's feeling a bit guilty he didn't support HRC at that critical juncture?
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Solvated Electron
Solvated Electron@Solvatdelectron·
@reedes beginning to suspect there's gotta be SOME connection at this point.
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
@maceskridge Perhaps so, though before investing I'd need a thesis to understand how they can maintain their moats in an age of AI agents. (I even worry about my PLTR position)
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Laptop Mercenary
Laptop Mercenary@maceskridge·
@reedes Boring SaaS will be a buy again, after the datacenter financing crisis
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
Pmarca's 2011 prophecy that "Software is eating the world" seemed highly plausible, and a reason to invest in these stocks. Then the 2017 paper the "Attention is all you need" came out ultimately resulting in the carnage seen below.
Jon Erlichman@JonErlichman

Software stocks this year: Intuit: -52% Asana: -51% HubSpot: -50% Atlassian: -47% Monday: -46% Workday: -40% Figma: -39% Duolingo: -38% Bill: -34% UIPath: -33% ServiceNow: -33% Salesforce: -32% Adobe: -30% GitLab: -29% Docusign: -28% SAP: -27% Freshworks: -26% Snowflake: -22%

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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
@Solvatdelectron Weird to see these former libertarian celebs embrace the corrupt lib establishment.
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
... and the script starts replacing thought. A good check is simple: can the speaker go deeper without falling back into familiar wording? A talking point can be true. The danger is that convenience makes borrowed conviction feel like earned judgment. 3/3
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
... beneath the phrase. Talking points package more than words. They carry emphasis, emotional posture, moral ranking, and ready-made dismissals. Repetition makes them feel natural rather than coordinated. Omission removes the trade-offs that would slow judgment down ... 2/3
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
May 25 - TALKING POINTS are portable verbal packages built for repetition. They can be useful shorthand, but dangerous when fluency becomes understanding. A person can deliver the approved line, sound composed, and still have no grip on the issue ... 1/3 #RealityTrackingDaily
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
... rather than a competing claim. The practical question is: what here is my experience, and what here is my claim about reality? Subjectivity deserves respect as a condition of judgment. It becomes dangerous when it appoints itself judge. 3/3
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
... do not look identical from every position. The distortion begins when that true point gets inflated. My experience matters becomes my experience settles the matter. Felt threat becomes established threat. Preference becomes fact. Disagreement becomes blindness ... 2/3
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
May 24 - SUBJECTIVITY means you encounter reality from somewhere, not nowhere. History, fears, values, incentives, and loyalties shape what you notice and how it feels. Some experience is standpoint-shaped: pain, insult, beauty, risk, and meaning ... 1/3 #RealityTrackingDaily
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
... but steering. Ask: what is the threat, and what evidence supports this alarm? Is fear clarifying the danger, or making questions feel dangerous? Real caution leaves room for proportion, comparison, and evidence. Fearmongering tries to bypass them. 3/3
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
... or disloyal. Fear narrows judgment fast. It can make weak evidence feel urgent, turn uncertainty into imagined catastrophe, and push people toward compliance, censorship, overreaction, or surrender of standards they would normally defend. The point is not warning ... 2/3
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
May 23 - FEARMONGERING is fear used as leverage. The danger may be real, but distortion begins when alarm is inflated so people stop evaluating and start reacting. Panic begins to feel like prudence, and scrutiny starts to look reckless ... 1/3 #RealityTrackingDaily
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
With the #vanbuild phase all but complete, I've begun provisioning the van for a big roadtrip to begin on Tuesday morning.
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
... by noise. Ask: what was about to receive scrutiny before attention moved? If the new issue is not more important on the merits, yet somehow became dominant anyway, distraction is probably doing the work. Keep the vivid from outranking the important. 3/3
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
... until the original problem loses momentum. A scandal is displaced by a new outrage. A concrete failure becomes a symbolic conflict. A showy gesture creates the feeling of action while follow-through disappears. What mattered is not answered; it is crowded out ... 2/3
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Reed Esau
Reed Esau@reedes·
May 22 - DISTRACTION redirects limited attention away from what matters most. In its manipulative form, it need not refute the central issue. Often it only needs to move attention toward something louder, fresher, more emotional, or easier to fight ... 1/3 #RealityTrackingDaily
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