RGBernman

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RGBernman

RGBernman

@rgbernman

Always check the denominator. Base rates too while you’re at it.

Online Katılım Aralık 2015
1.3K Takip Edilen598 Takipçiler
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Zack Stentz
Zack Stentz@MuseZack·
I don't know what to tell you. I'm a liberal-left guy and I know I'm gonna cry like a baby when we lose Clint. Some of the artists who mean the most to me don't share my politics. Reducing complicated human beings to a red/blue binary? I don't want to live that way.
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Bobby R
Bobby R@roadsterbobby·
@ben_a_goldfarb Same as people that know nothing about building simple bridges.
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Shadi Hamid
Shadi Hamid@shadihamid·
What Israel has done in Gaza clearly and easily meets the legal definition of genocide as described in the UN Genocide Convention. I lay out the case in detail here in @washingtonpost: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/… Words have meaning. Even if it offends some people, we need to call things as they are. The idea that Israel is somehow immune from judgment is itself an application of a double standard. It is anti-semitic to hold Israel to a different standard than other states. And that's what Israeli is: a state. Sometimes, states do really awful things. And to conflate American Jews with the Israeli state is yet another example of anti-semitism, which the AJC seems to be doing here.
American Jewish Committee@AJCGlobal

Mayor Mamdani’s repeated use of the “genocide” accusation against Israel is not just wrong - it’s dangerous. It distorts reality and fuels antisemitism at a moment when Jews are already under threat.

Leaders who claim to stand for human rights should not use rhetoric that puts Jewish communities at risk. timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry…

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Jon Hoffman
Jon Hoffman@Hoffman8Jon·
Two years ago this week, I published this piece on how Israel is a strategic liability for the United States. This has been the case for decades, but the past two years have proven Israel is arguably the greatest strategic liability the United States currently shoulders abroad. The US-Israel special relationship is not sustainable. The pathologies of the special relationship with Israel have hindered Washington’s strategic maneuverability in the Middle East and inhibited US leaders’ ability to think clearly about the region. Lobbying on behalf of Israel has steered Washington’s regional policies in directions contrary to US interests. Israel’s foreign policy is inherently aggressive and expansionist both in the Occupied Territories and the wider Middle East. And it is getting worse. The special relationship binds Washington to this agenda, subsidizing it while entangling the United States in a host of protracted crises that would otherwise be avoidable. At every turn, it pulls the United States deeper into the Middle East. The special relationship emboldens Israel and incites widespread regional hostility toward the United States. The unparalleled levels of American political, economic, and military support for Israel allow it to avoid the policy trade-offs that typically constrain other states. The result is perpetual conflict subsidized by the United States to its own disadvantage. The last two years have marked the apex of the US-Israel relationship, characterized by total Israeli impunity guaranteed by the United States. they have epitomized the dysfunctions of the special relationship for the United States—blind support for Israeli policy and disregard for American interests. Nothing the United States receives from Israel justifies the profound negative consequences of the special relationship. It is unidirectional, yielding virtually no benefit for the United States while actively undermining US interests. This is particularly the case when it comes to Iran. The US-Iran rivalry is primarily a byproduct of the special relationship, which policymakers in Washington and Israel invoke to strengthen their partnership, creating a self-perpetuating cycle of conflict and greater American regional involvement. This cannot continue. The United States needs to fundamentally reorient its approach to Israel. The special relationship needs to end.
Jon Hoffman@Hoffman8Jon

My latest with @ForeignPolicy It's past time for a fundamental reevaluation of the US-Israel relationship. 🧵 foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/22/isr…

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Arnaud Bertrand
Arnaud Bertrand@RnaudBertrand·
This is probably the most important article of the month: an op-ed by Oman's Foreign Minister, who mediated the talks between the U.S. and Iran, in which he writes that the U.S. "has lost control of its foreign policy" to Israel. He repeats that a deal was possible as an outcome of the talks (something confirmed by the UK's National Security Advisor, who also attended: x.com/i/status/20341…) and that the military strike by the U.S. and Israel was "a shock." Interestingly, given he is one of Iran's neighbors and given that Oman has been struck multiple times by Iran since the war began (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran…), he writes that "Iran’s retaliation against what it claims are American targets on the territory of its neighbours was an inevitable result" of the U.S.-Israeli attack. He describes it as "probably the only rational option available to the Iranian leadership." He says the war "endangers" the region's entire "economic model in which global sport, tourism, aviation and technology were to play an important role." He adds that "if this had not been anticipated by the architects of this war, that was surely a grave miscalculation." But, he adds, the "greatest miscalculation" of all for the U.S. "was allowing itself to be drawn into this war in the first place." In his view this was the doing of "Israel’s leadership" who "persuaded America that Iran had been so weakened by sanctions, internal divisions and the American-Israeli bombings of its nuclear sites last June, that an unconditional surrender would swiftly follow the initial assault and the assassination of the supreme leader." Obviously, this proved completely wrong, and the U.S. is now in a quagmire. He says that, given this, "America’s friends have a responsibility to tell the truth," which is that "there are two parties to this war who have nothing to gain from it," namely "Iran and America." He says that all of the U.S. interests in the region (end to nuclear proliferation, secure energy supply chains, investment opportunities) are "best achieved with Iran at peace." As he writes, "this is an uncomfortable truth to tell, because it involves indicating the extent to which America has lost control of its own foreign policy. But it must be told." He then proposes a couple of paths to get back to the negotiating table, although he recognizes how difficult it would be for Iran "to return to dialogue with an administration that twice switched abruptly from talks to bombing and assassination." That's perhaps the most profound damage Trump did during this entire episode: the complete discrediting of diplomacy. If Iran was taught anything, it is: don't negotiate with the U.S., it's a trap that will literally kill you. The great irony of the man who sold himself as a dealmaker is that he taught the world one thing: don't make deals with my country. Link to the article: economist.com/by-invitation/…
Arnaud Bertrand tweet media
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Alex Armlovich
Alex Armlovich@aarmlovi·
The rent regulation literature has always been a tough read, but it's genuinely stunning to see the intellectual father of universal healthcare in the US warn this sharply against rent control in Massachusetts
Jonathan Berk@berkie1

"There is now unambiguous, solid economic evidence, not just abstract economic theory, that rent control would make the affordability problems facing [Massachusetts] worse, not better." - Jon Gruber, Chairman of the Economics Department at MIT

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Kathryn Paisner
Kathryn Paisner@KathrynPaisner·
If I ever lose my moral compass or my grip on reality, in this way, please slap me. You do not describe a man who orchestrated the murder of tens of thousands of peaceful protesters as “strong and pragmatic” after equating overzealous ICE enforcement with Tiananmen Square.
Kathryn Paisner tweet media
Nicholas Kristof@NickKristof

I fear @vali_nasr is right. When I met Ali Larijani I found him an absolute insider kingpin of the Iranian regime -- but also the kind of strong and pragmatic leader who just might be able to hammer out a peace deal. Not sure, but I wonder if the war will now be harder to end.

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RGBernman
RGBernman@rgbernman·
@bentreyf @lpolgreen Maybe Hezbollah should disarm and withdraw? And stop firing rockets into Israel on Iranian sponsorship?
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Ben Reiff
Ben Reiff@bentreyf·
Israel is preparing to deploy the “Gaza model” in Lebanon in plain sight — mass ethnic cleansing, annihilation of entire cities and villages, long-term occupation, and perhaps eventually Israeli settlements and annexation. My latest in the Guardian. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
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RGBernman
RGBernman@rgbernman·
@carriecoon Nah, just actual enforcement of immigration law. Abbott flying migrants to sanctuary cities really called a major bluff & turned public opinion against Dems on immigration issues.
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Carrie Coon
Carrie Coon@carriecoon·
Republican lawmakers could fund #TSA but they’re choosing not to because they want to preserve the lawlessness of a state-sponsored paramilitary force.
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RGBernman
RGBernman@rgbernman·
@TerwillikerInst @MuseZack Not if costs aren’t reined in with tax break. Conflating 2 issues here- yes the Zaslavs & Sarandoses of the biz will likely stay in LA but if there’s less production (& if you lived in LA you’d see it) the pipeline dries up & only trust fund kids can afford to get a start.
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Valentine Steele
Valentine Steele@TerwillikerInst·
@rgbernman @MuseZack The industry hasn't decentralised to any meaningful degree. If you're serious about working (and networking), you have to live in and around Hollywood. And this has still not changed despite LA production dropping. Pretty easy to see a pathway to moving production back.
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RGBernman
RGBernman@rgbernman·
@TerwillikerInst @MuseZack Stars and leads of shows that cut pay like the Pitt can afford, that’s not a plan that can be scaled to whole industry of working class and BTL when COL and ballooning union pension funds take the bulk of pay.
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Valentine Steele
Valentine Steele@TerwillikerInst·
@rgbernman @MuseZack Will it have to mostly involve increasing these new tax-credits? Sure. But I also know for a fact that a number of big ticket actors and HoDs have taken massive salary cuts just to stay on gigs that are shooting in LA. The will and the way are there.
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RGBernman
RGBernman@rgbernman·
@nopiece @FARlikewhoa Real bad. AI protections needed a line in the sand but should’ve been kicked down the road a couple years so theaters and streamers had a full slate to run during negotiations.
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NoPiece
NoPiece@nopiece·
@FARlikewhoa How bad does the 2023 Writer's Guild strike look in retrospect?
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Farhan Tariq Mahmood
Farhan Tariq Mahmood@FARlikewhoa·
Production days in LA are down nearly half and the entertainment industry is feeling it. A friend, who has been working as an editor for over 25 years, compared it to a coal mine shutting down.
Farhan Tariq Mahmood tweet media
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RGBernman
RGBernman@rgbernman·
@TerwillikerInst @MuseZack Technology has made 300 days of predictable lighting obsolete. I don’t know how you uncouple the grip that increased union costs bring to a production when you can shoot in the U.K. without it & get a 40% BTL and ATL tax credit back.
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Valentine Steele
Valentine Steele@TerwillikerInst·
@MuseZack I keep telling people that if they want production to move back to the US, then efforts have to be laser-focused on specifically bringing them back to LA. Literally the only city in the world built around/for film shoots.
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RGBernman
RGBernman@rgbernman·
@carriecoon No cuz 80% will go to NGO management even as GDP grows.
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Carrie Coon
Carrie Coon@carriecoon·
Now that we’re in a war that will cost billions, can we reform healthcare?
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