wil

Win rate is overrated. Over the past 6–8 weeks I’ve tracked ~240 trades across futures, options and equities in my trading and swing books. Including losses, here’s the return distribution: 0–50% → ~32% 50–100% → ~28% 100–300% → ~25% 300%+ → ~13% Median trade: ~+100% Now the key point: Roughly 20% of trades drive ~70% of total returns. That’s the entire edge. Not win rate. Not prediction. Payoff structure. losses are limited convex trades dominate outcomes Those larger moves tend to appear when: volatility expands positioning becomes unstable flows accelerate I’m not trying to predict every move. I’m trying to be positioned when the market misprices magnitude. That’s what I focus on inside MikshuAlpha.

I took a small position in $SEI yesterday. Trade thesis: breakout on high volume from a high tight flag. I like the company and the way they are positioned to address energy needs. We'll see how this one pans out. (not financial advice, obviously).

@SoJustFollowMe Stratosphere

$873k in realized profits (screenshots in Highlights) or 70%+ YTD return from June to December 2025 in the public portfolio. I made this with full transparency – every trade from entry to exit, every position change, daily P&L. For new followers – who’s behind this account: Greek, 44. @MIT grad. 21 years in the markets. Former Chief Investment Officer & Head Portfolio Manager on Wall Street. I managed a portfolio with ten-figure AUM and delivered a 44.7% CAGR over the last 7 years. I am currently serving in the same capacity at a hedge fund in Abu Dhabi, UAE. My edge is a trading system inspired by Jim Simons’ Medallion & Renaissance approach. I design and operate mathematical market system. Running since 2019 – green every single year, consistent outperformance vs #SPX, with superior drawdown, recovery, Sharpe and Sortino ratios. In the coming days, my team and I are launching a new project. Want to be notified first? Leave a comment: “Stratosphere”. In the meantime, below are the key posts I’ve written over the past 10 months on @X – they show how I think and trade. 🟢 Priority reads 🔵 Secondary reads The Basis of My Strategy. Read below ↓

@market_sleuth John, fwiw, I recommend giving @MikshuAlpha a follow. I think you'd like him & his analysis of index trading. (I think I sound like a bot, but I'm not.)

One of my favorite traders on X. He’s sharp, balanced & no hopium. Good friend too 🤝

Update:

$EQT has a cup and handle formation on the monthly chart going back about eleven years and just had an ATH monthly close at $61.77. I wonder if this will resolve (much) higher or chop along in the $50–60 range for another year or so.

@StonkChris Very helpful. Thanks for that.

@rhymeswright Yes I can do that. Let me compile them and share them with the group!

Reminder: All of my custom Trading Guides & Strategies are available immediately when you subscribe to me on X Premium or Substack. You subscribe today → you get full access immediately. 👉stonkchris.substack.com/subscribe You get instant access to the nine (9) trading guides I’ve published so far (with many more coming): 1) The Professional Trader’s Guide to Stop Loss Placement 2) Position Sizing: The Most Important Skill Nobody Wants to Master 3) Mastering Profit-Taking: Using Fibonacci Levels in Strong Uptrends 4) Mastering the Ichimoku Cloud: How I Use the Cloud for Signals, Structure, and High-Probability Trades 5) How to Use RSI as a High-Quality Buy & Sell Signal on Higher Timeframes 6) How to Properly Use Horizontal Support/Resistance Flip Zones as High-Quality Buy & Sell Signals → Ten (10) Individual Names that have Now Pulled Back into Their Respective HTF Horizontal Support Zones 7) My In-Depth Guide on Profit-Taking Strategies That Protect Gains and Compound Wealth During Bull Trends 8) Cipher Mining — The Perfect Example of How I Used Fibonacci Precision and RSI Timing for Optimal Buy and Sell Zones 9) The Swing Trading Method I Use to Maximize ROI with Minimal Risk — "10/10 Buy Signal"

@market_sleuth John, thanks for all your posts. Blessings to you. Are you planning to begin your trading substack prior to this (potential) large move?

Last post before the Sabbath, I’ll be back Monday morning. Traders, the current setup on $SPX & $SPY is RARE. 4+ months of chop, 6 weeks of a rising VIX & a Fed chair replacement in 3 months. Life changing money will likely be made from Feb 26 - April 10. When the breakout of this range on $SPY finally occurs (below $675 or above $695) that first breakout will likely be a trap. The explosive directional move will likely come shortly later. Bank it. 💯

@Reformed_Trader I could be wrong, but I think that AST Spacemobile makes its own solar panels for its satellites.

@Reformed_Trader I appreciate this. Really interesting. There is high dilution risk, it seems. (From their 10-K):

How many pure plays are there for space based solar? Honest question. So far I can only find one and I think all my followers already know what it is since I post about it frequently. Nearly everyday you have Musk pounding the table on space-based power generation. And the only pure play in public markets is trading a $30-$50M market cap. That just seems comically cheap. Then you research the company and you learn they have multiple NDAs with several space companies, some that are building mega constellations. There are only a handful of possibilities it could be, all which are the biggest players. Blue Origin, Amazon Leo, and SpaceX being the main culprits. I really believe it will be trading multiples higher over coming months.

@Reformed_Trader 10-Q*

@SoJustFollowMe Up today about 5%, but yesterday it was down about 5%

Portfolio ended up $48,000 today. How did your portfolio perform? Trades: • Bought $QQQ Open Positions: • $PLTR, $NFLX, $ORCL, $NBIS, $SOFI, $HOOD, $ADBE, $NKE, $TGT, $APP • $QQQ, $IEF, $TLT

@SoJustFollowMe This is informative and helpful, thank you. Chart timeframe also implies a trade time frame, doesn't it. So your ADBE trade could last months to years, potentially?

@rhymeswright Chart timeframe = ATR timeframe

Likes are in. Today’s stock – $ADBE. Two touches of the monthly 200 EMA in history, two swings: • February 2009 → 10 months, +120% • August 2011 → 10 years, over 3,500% ⚠️ Sometimes algorithms only need a breakout and subsequent consolidation below a round $300 price. In that case, the price may not reach the exact EMA touch with a certain probability. Still, 3-4 months later, when you review the chart, you’ll be surprised to see the touch actually happened – thanks to a squeeze-driven move, which pulled the moving averages up to the price. I’ll only open a position at the touch of the monthly 200 EMA. Today that’s $282.21. Position size – 3.5-5% of AUM. Stop-loss – 1 ATR (see bottom-right of the chart). Risk/reward ratio: 1 / 60. p.s. I came to @X last May, when $ADBE traded in the $400-420 range and most people were discussing what a great buy it was “here and now.” Over the past year, I repeatedly posted this chart and stated that algos wouldn’t stop selling until the price dropped at least to $300. But this is @X – and there are always plenty of people here who think they are smarter and more experienced than everyone else. And if content consumers want fairy stories about Wide Moat, Cash Cows, Counter-cyclicality, Margin of Safety, Pricing Power and Buybacks, Insider Buying and Selling, Fibonacci or other forms of chart wall art – they’ll always be fed exactly what they ask for. Doubts? Use the search – it will show all my posts and all my comments. I’m not trying to say that I’m right – and certainly not that I’m always right. I want to say that I sincerely hope critical thinking and common sense will eventually win.

@Liathetrader I enjoy reading your posts and learn from them. If you'd ever want to do a thread on some of the best books you've read on trading, I'd read with much interest!

I've been trading every single day for over 6 years. I've read 100 books on trading, worked as a psychologist for over a decade before becoming a trader, and the more I know and the more experience I gain, the more horrified I am to read 90% of the posts here. Most people are truly amateurs. They have no idea about risk management, stock/market cycles, etc.—the absolute basics needed to survive this game. They're all gambling. And maybe they get lucky and maybe not.

@LoneStockTrader This was a helpful list. I took some notes. Thank you.

Working on my next article ✍️: "17 Key Takeaways From Spotting 32 Big Winners Before Their 2025 Runs" Should be released before the market opens.

@sovereignsense great calls, man

The Mat 5.. gave it to you 3 weeks ago. Most of these are already close to hitting the 2x. The only one I feel that should be replaced on that list although I like it a lot, is $ABAT. $LAC was the missing link here and I have posted quite a lot about it since. Let’s get this 🥖