Richard Hepner

@fond_diagram5 @tottaway22 We need you to speed up launch cadence, if you don't mind! But in all seriousness, congratulations!

Ok Spacemob, this will be my LAST baby post. But this coincidence has me feeling some type of way. It all started with the Bluebird onesie with my 1st and little did I know at that time that my life and AST’s timeline would be so closely aligned. I’ve now had all three of my children within days of an AST launch. My first, Bluewalker 3. My second, Block 1. My third, FM2. It’s starting to feel like finding this stock and believing in it was destiny. I’ve became wealthy in more than one sense simultaneously. Years ago I would have absolutely partaken in debauchery at the launches (trust me!) but nowadays I’m watching the launch in between diaper changes. Nonetheless, I hope to meet and personally thank many of you someday. Now let’s launch that rocket! The world is awakening to AST Spacemobile’s story! $ASTS

@Only6inches Viasat looking more a more like a strategic acquisition piece.

$ASTS Access to spectrum is one of the keys (showing only L and S band access).

@CatSE___ApeX___ Looking forward to more Catse pods!

$ASTS reminder of military use cases.

@pennycheck Future buy-out candidate?

$IRDM Becomes extremely important in the near term if you need comms in the arctic. The only truly global solution available for now . (yes spacemob i know i know no need to reply) As a side note recently learned they helped draft the legislation for the upcoming part 108 BVLOS rule. Interesting name to consider.

@pennycheck @spacanpanman The sudden influx of hype around PNG /KRKNF post transhumanica article drop was wild. Definitely had the appearance of a coordinated pump---but the DD checked out. Interesting lesson here for sure.

i need to do a full form post on better understanding what weight to give certain signals i sold out of oss back in july because the ir guy forwarded to everyone a pretty bearish seeking alpha article on the name which was really sus because he rarely sends out emails, i thought that was some kind of veiled warning or just really incompetent and sold. i didnt invest in krkng because all the accounts posting at the same time as well as one scam account turned me off so didn't really take the time to look at the quality dd that you and other were putting out ... it's always important see alarm bells but not let them completely cloud everything else

$KRKNF $PNG.V: 🦑 All-Time High

@kingtutcap Really enjoy your investment thesis breakdown pods (x-spaces) with Anpanman and others. Hope you continue to explore more ideas in this format moving forward!

What content should I lean more into?

@ASTS_Investors Misread this as 2025 EoY price, yikes! EoY 2026 for me is $248.23

@ASTS_Investors 78.41

🧇GUESS THE AST SPACEMOBILE SHARE PRICE AT THE END OF 2026 🧇 It’s competition time, Sp🅰️ceMob! Want to win a Block 2 BlueBird model? 2026 is shaping up to be a huge year for the space industry and AST SpaceMobile is right at the centre of it. To enter you just need to do two things 1️⃣ Reply to this post with your end of 2026 share price prediction 2️⃣ RT this post ⏰ Entries close: 11:59pm EST, 31 December 2025 Closest guess wins, good luck!

@spacanpanman Great detective work. The sudden interest of SpaceX in Globalstar seemed fishy given Apple's restrictive 85% share of the capacity.

$GSAT $AAPL $ASTS $IRDM: SpaceX's interest in Globalstar? More trick than treat!🎃💀 Reviewing the 3 leaked articles from The Information and Bloomberg, I believe they came from Globalstar and its advisors. A big and obvious tell is this quote: "At the same time, the chair of Globalstar, James Monroe, has talked to associates about the possibility of selling his satellite company for more than $10 billion, said people who heard him make the remarks (Globalstar’s current market capitalization is $5.3 billion)." This information from Globalstar is to set price expectations for potential buyers that if someone pays $10B, they have a deal. This is a very risky gambit in that Globalstar is trying to create a narrative that there is a robust auction process going on and SpaceX is a likely buyer. The downside risk of course is that a failed sale process results in damaged management credibility and investor perception - "why did the company not get sold, is something wrong with the fundamentals or maybe bad thing is about to happen?" Now why would Globalstar embark on this dangerous journey? Well it seems that Apple is dissatisfied with its investment and more importantly the narrowband data service it receives from Globalstar. Apple must see that AST SpaceMobile and Starlink are rolling out services that will be far superior to what Globalstar provides today and what is planned for the future with its next generation constellation that is being built by MDA Space (btw outsourcing the design and mfg of a constellation is a big red flag). Apple probably also realizes that it has to maintain good relations with its MNO partners and the fact that so many are, for example, backing AST SpaceMobile and not Apple's own Globalstar internal solution, means that any desire to expand Globalstar's data capabilities will be hindered by managing conflicts with MNO customers. If the MNOs want to use AST SpaceMobile, then why should Apple invest more money into an inferior network that will be sparsely used if AST SpaceMobile and Starlink are preferred options for consumers? Globalstar knows it is in a very precarious position. It was financially bailed out multiple times by Apple and probably promised more than it could deliver. "You want broadband data? No problem, we can do that!!!" Globalstar also boxed itself in by giving away 85% of its current and any future network capacity to Apple as well as 20% ownership of its spectrum assets. And now Globalstar faces some large financial obligations that start to kick in this quarter, Q3 2025. 1/ First, Globalstar has to start paying back $252 Million that Apple provided as a prepayment in 2023. The payback starts this quarter Q3 2025 and will paid out in installments over the next 16 quarters through Q2 2029. 2/ Second, Globalstar has to start paying back $235M that Apple loaned it (11/2024) to repay 13% 2029 notes. I believe these payments start in 2026 and will be paid over 32 quarters. Furthermore, $225M of this accrues fees unless Globalstar meets defined buildout requirements of its next generation constellation. 3/ Third, Apple provided $278M (3/31/25) of up to $1.1B infrastructure prepayments to help fund the next generation constellation. However if Globalstar loses licenses or can't deliver the new network, Apple can demand immediate repayment and keep its 20% ownership of the spectrum assets and I believe 85% rights to current and future network capacity. Now context is critical here: when Apple decided to start working with Globalstar in 2021, the D2D landscape was very different. The only real player was AST SpaceMobile. Starlink later decided to enter the race in August 2022, which was well after Apple and Globalstar contractually started working together and integrated Globalstar into the iPhone 14 released that September 2022. Apple essentially made its decision to bailout a financially distressed Globalstar and use it as their marquee D2D service without actually seeing how the landscape would develop where AST would be come the technological and business leader and Starlink would become a formidable competitor. Now Globalstar is at the crossroads: 1/ Faces significant financial repayments to Apple starting NOW 2/ Outsources design, development and mfg of next generation satellites to MDA Space - so "control of its destiny" is not in Globalstar's hands which is important in that any delays can cause a default on Apple loans and force immediate repayment (basically Apple forces Globalstar into bankruptcy and gets it on the cheap) 3/ If AST SpaceMobile and Starlink DtC are successful, what economic return from Apple for a secondary backup service can Globalstar realistically expect? 4/ What economically viable business can Globalstar build on 15% of remaining network capacity? So with these key issues in mind, what are Globalstar's alternatives in an increasingly competitive market where your primary sponsor (Apple) is unhappy and will likely pull the plug at some point in the future? For Chairman Jay Munroe, who has brought Globalstar back from financial ruin several times by selling an ever evolving strategy to new cohorts of investors, the answer is to try to put the company up for sale before business and financial shit really hits the fan in 2026. His risky gambit here is to hope that: 1) Apple buys Globalstar 2) Starlink gets Apple's approval to buy Globalstar 3) Globalstar sells to another player with Apple's approval (like AST SpaceMobile? Kuiper would be DOA given Amazon's ambitions in the home) However the biggest problem with 2 and 3 is that Apple still owns 85% of current and future capacity of the network. If you're Starlink or AST SpaceMobile, you would never agree to acquire Globalstar unless you got a sweetheart deal and a promised economic return in exchange for becoming data capacity supplier to Apple. Globalstar made an awful business decision out of distress to give away 85% of its future and now you as the buyer are willing to buy the company and step into those exact same shoes?!? Of course not! Now maybe Apple sees value in working with Starlink or AST and is willing to make a Globalstar business proposition more interesting. But it would require serious $$$ to get either onsides. That said, Apple and SpaceX/Starlink/MuskCo are direct competitors and will becoming increasingly competitive over time. Musk has made it no secret he wants to get into phones, payments, robotics, software, AI, etc... all areas that are critical to Apple's future. Does Apple really want to underwrite its own demise like T-Mobile does? So everyone, including myself, have asked why would there be sudden strategic interest in Globalstar? Shouldn't Starlink, AST and other potential buyers just wait for the company to flop financially and then buy its spectrum out of bankruptcy? The answer is Jay Munroe (Thermo Funding) owns over 57% of the equity and sees how terrible 2026 and beyond is going to get, so he needs to manufacture a sales process in hopes of hooking a buyer to fully cash out. The big issue for him is that Globalstar is essentially an Apple subsidiary. If Apple is unwilling to work with a new buyer, then there can be no deal. Even if SpaceX offers $10B, Apple can just keep its legal ownership of 85% of current and future network capacity (and 20% ownership of spectrum) to make it untenable for any deal to happen. It seems the articles were leaked by Globalstar to put pressure on Apple to either give Globalstar more breathing room or to buy it by threatening the potential that SpaceX might step in and acquire Globalstar, which would be a messy situation for both Apple and SpaceX. In closing, I also want to point out the regulatory issues of a potential deal between SpaceX and Globalstar. Depending on how the DOJ defines Direct-to-Device market - does it mean broadband or any connectivity? - and where it counts ASTS since the company is on the cusp of launching its service but still viewed as an emerging player, the DOJ could view this as 3 going to 2 ... or if it views ASTS in a more mature way, 4 going to 3. The DOJ and FCC learned the hard way when approving T-Mobile's merger with Sprint how damaging to consumers 4 to 3 was... will they repeat that mistake? The regulatory review would be really tough and I think SpaceX would face an ~80-90% chance a Globalstar deal gets blocked and loses in a challenge. That's all I have for now, but will write more in the coming days and perhaps host a space soon.

@spacanpanman ASTS and Bot Army Psychology- "This. Is. Not. Normal." Talk

$ASTS: ASTS and Human Psychology - Real Talk @ 11PM ET twitter.com/i/spaces/1vAxR…

@Mike10947310 Gotcha. A major reason why ASTS will be a secular winner is because the technology does not require device modifications. Keep in mind that the entire market cap of ASTS is currently worth less than the price Starlink just paid to secure the Echostar midband spectrum.

@rich43940 What I mean is $ASTS is an obvious name for any direct to device thesis (the name rather), but I am curious for takes on hardware winners for phones, since I already know about AST being a trend winner.

$ASTS is obviously implicated but something that stood out was Elon mentioning phone hardware would have to evolve to make this feasible. What’s the best pure play on that? Because that stock, when this happens, will do something silly.

@spacanpanman Excellent and very informative space! Thank you for sharing and congrats on the big win.

@spacanpanman Any idea of what the process will be for ASTS to eventually shift Priority Spectrum S-band rights into Full License rights?

$ASTS: Let's Discuss the Game Changing Global S-Band Transaction @ 10AM ET today! x.com/i/spaces/1eaJb…

@mikeaxolotl @SpaceInvestor_D That definitely makes sense. Thanks for the intel!

@rich43940 @SpaceInvestor_D Priority rights ≠ Full license. Priority rights give AST SpaceMobile a first mover advantage to negotiate usage, subject to country level approvals, while a full license grants exclusive, guaranteed access, and as you thought, S-Band is less sought after currently.

$ASTS On August 5, 2025, AST announced a $64.5M deal to acquire ITU S-band priority rights for MSS use in LEO. Deal terms: ▫️ $26M at closing ▫️ $38.5M deferred (some milestone-based) ▫️ Payable in cash or stock ▫️ Closing expected H2 2025

@thekookreport Charlie don't surf

Caught a wave. Bottom confirmed. Bye bye Panicans. Oh, I bet Charlie was in San Jose in one last attempt to get Apple and they told him to stuff it, so he signed his paper constellation $ASTS

@spacanpanman "Beware of Geeks bearing gifts"---Laocoön

$ASTS: Even if Starlink does reboot its architecture and is able to provide true broadband connectivity to unmodified mobile phones, will MNOs trust working with Musk? For customers to roam onto Starlink’s separate DtC network, MNOs must hand over their customer information to Starlink. Starlink is going to take that info and directly market Starlink fixed wireless service to MNO customers in hopes of replacing the MNO’s fiber or 5G fixed wireless service. AST SpaceMobile will not compete with its MNO customers.

@thekookreport If those mountains get any larger, you might need to stick bluebirds on them. #science

Ok, here we go again. $58. 58x58x58. $ASTS Push, Squat, Sit.