r8b8

216 posts

r8b8

r8b8

@rishh94

Katılım Ocak 2023
139 Takip Edilen88 Takipçiler
r8b8
r8b8@rishh94·
@WizardsUnknown Totally agree with you. My point being one can make money from both SBCL & Interarch as long as growth exists. Interarch with growth will be valued higher than SBCL with no growth. SBCL with growth will be valued higher than Interarch with growth.
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Unknown Market Wizards
Unknown Market Wizards@WizardsUnknown·
Yeah and it went up 7-8x in 2 years just before that. Cant expect this to go on forever right? Eventually earnings need to catch with the price. More relevant question is whether the growth slow down is structural. Don't think it is. First, all exporters were impacted by tariff issues. EV demand had to normalize at some point. Client concentration was indeed much higher earlier which did hurt them.
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Unknown Market Wizards
Unknown Market Wizards@WizardsUnknown·
"You really want me to pay 25x earnings?" Interarch Buildings vs Shivalik Bimetal - Both businesses operate in completely different sectors, are at different scale of operations but roughly at similar market caps currently. Both make roughly similar ROIC. Both have genuine tailwinds. One has infra capex, manufacturing and e-com warehousing boom while the other has EV electrification, smart meter rollout, and global grid modernisation tailwind. But...one operates in an extremely competitive industry that needs constant growth capex and still one steel upcycle can knock their margins out cold, while the other is a near monopoly with proprietary process technology and an improving global market share. Porter's five forces - +
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MAQ🇮🇳
MAQ🇮🇳@iamMAQ_·
@prasanth_hruday I don’t know how much people give it weightage. But @rishh94 might agree to it that it’s difficult to win a deal in BFSI space that too in AI. And once u win a deal in any big bank , it becomes easier to get into others
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MAQ🇮🇳
MAQ🇮🇳@iamMAQ_·
Though market sentiments are weak. But this Deal win looks exciting from Intellect design arena
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r8b8
r8b8@rishh94·
@iamMAQ_ @ZeeBusiness @poojat_0211 Yup. SME is the future. Shouldn’t run behind big institutions in India which are a laggard and not bothered to grow. AI adoption will be much faster in SMEs.
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MAQ🇮🇳
MAQ🇮🇳@iamMAQ_·
@rishh94 @ZeeBusiness @poojat_0211 Let’s see . As we discussed they need to collaborate with player who can help them scale. AI summit was a moment of realization for them
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Zee Business
Zee Business@ZeeBusiness·
Corporate Radar Intellect Design Arena : नए प्रोजेक्ट्स को लेकर क्या हैं अपडेट? ग्रोथ को लेकर क्या हैं आउटलुक? नतीजों और बिजनेस आउटलुक पर टॉप मैनेजमेंट से बातचीत #StockMarket #IntellectDesignArena @poojat_0211 twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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r8b8
r8b8@rishh94·
@iamMAQ_ @ZeeBusiness @poojat_0211 Interesting. How fast they can scale Purple Fabric will dictate the valuations going forward. Currently market is valuing it as if it can’t scale at all.
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r8b8
r8b8@rishh94·
Promoters on buying spree.
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r8b8
r8b8@rishh94·
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r8b8
r8b8@rishh94·
Gross Margin Vs Peers
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r8b8
r8b8@rishh94·
Sai Life Sciences Vs Peers. Salary & Employee count data is sourced from Gemini.
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r8b8
r8b8@rishh94·
@iamMAQ_ In an inflationary environment, hard assets are difficult to replicate. As a result, all hardware companies are benefiting. The same holds true for good R&D talent. There aren’t many companies investing in R&D and striving to compete with West. Ones who are deserve a premium.
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MAQ🇮🇳
MAQ🇮🇳@iamMAQ_·
Sooner or later people will realize that in long run, money will be made by the company adopting AI in business use case than the companies building its hardware Intellect Design Arena. #Intellect @rishh94
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Unknown Market Wizards
Unknown Market Wizards@WizardsUnknown·
At the beginning of 1970, even if you had correctly guessed that S&P 500 would deliver the highest earnings growth, you still would have ended up with the worst returns. PEG folks assume growth will justify the price. First, growth forecasts are fragile and largely out of your control. Second, even if you get them right, over long periods, starting valuations matter far more than earnings growth.
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Unknown Market Wizards@WizardsUnknown

@EquityInsightss Is the relationship between the multiple and growth rate linear? NO Then what does PEG ratio even mean? No clue Lynch popularized it, but he intended to apply it to stable, predictable companies. Even he was cautious of super high growth businesses. x.com/WizardsUnknown…

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r8b8
r8b8@rishh94·
@iamMAQ_ Yup, looks like a good move. Next concall will be interesting to understand adoption rate of newly launched products.
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The Cloaked Gaze 👀
The Cloaked Gaze 👀@gaze_observer·
@rishh94 Ya let's see going forward Senco management said this year margin are extraordinary Anyways is this wrap tool or something else?
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The Cloaked Gaze 👀
The Cloaked Gaze 👀@gaze_observer·
Hello guys, Anyways, writing again after almost two weeks Now that the earnings season has been over Overall takeaway is positive. There has been a revival in earnings, particularly in the small caps where growth has been encouraging Observation & learning for past 1 week First of all Banking & Credit Growth Bank credit growth accelerated to 14.6% YoY for the fortnight ended January 31, 2026 — the highest in 19 months. Banks are witnessing healthy credit growth, with some even revising their guidance upward. For example- SBI has raised its near-term credit growth guidance to 13–15% from 12–14% However, Certain segments like affordable housing finance are facing pressure DPD buckets and GNPA/NNPA numbers are inching up. If you look at the India Shelter Finance concall, the discussion was more focused on asset quality than growth. Even technically, on the weekly chart, it is losing relative strength. Next is Gold Financiers A few weeks ago, gold financiers were everywhere in discussions Now — nowhere 🙃 That said, if you look at the results of Muthoot Finance, they delivered solid performance across parameters and even raised AUM growth guidance. With gold prices stabilizing again & doing talkpass consolidation Again AUM growth has been robust so far now with chaser & weak hands out It may be worth reassessing gold lenders such as: Muthoot Finance FedBank Capri Global IIFL Finance CSB Bank Track and evaluate Next is MSME Lenders Here, things are relatively weak Asset quality pressures are visible, and disbursement growth has slowed to flat or single digits. Same thing mentioned in Bajaj Finance concall Next is Microfinance Clear signs indicate the industry is shifting from recovery mode back toward growth mode. From the CreditAccess concall: "That also means that you will have to put more effort on acquiring customers to maintain some amount of growth rate in microfinance. And yes, since we are coming out of the cycle and another quarter of performance will give us the confidence to accelerate in the next year for sure." In microfinance, management tone is critical — cycles change quickly from good to bad and vice versa. These are short-duration cycles. Theme Rotation in Markets Nowadays, market narratives change within weeks: EV → Power T&D → Semiconductors → EMS → Data Centres → Defence → PEBs → Gold Financiers → Banks → Aerospace → & now Exporters Capital is rotating fast Attention shifts quickly. What was “the next big thing” a month ago suddenly goes silent — and a new theme takes center stage. That’s how markets function Liquidity chases visibility Narratives follow price. But in between all this noise, the most important thing is to keep your thesis and strategy intact. Interestingly, there is hardly any talk about the solar theme now, despite it being dominant for 2–3 years. The market seems concerned about margin sustainability and potential oversupply, even after good Q3 numbers Market be like: “Not bad, not bad… but what next?” Next is PEBs (Pre-Engineered Buildings) Barring Interarch, overall performance across players has not been good That perhaps explains why Interarch calls itself the “Mercedes” of the segment. Even Interarch’s management commentary appears cautious with respect to FY27 or whatsoever Execution will be key going forward. Anyways, "The market rewards execution — not just commentary" Now let talk about Aerospace An interesting sector with high entry barriers that demands patience. The aerospace industry shares similarities with the CDMO Long gestation periods (7-12 years) to scale a business to a decent size With significant pending order books (Airbus and Boeing holding a combined order backlog of approximately 17,000 aircraft) Tailwinds remain strong and visibility is high. High visibility on future demand due to long-term contracts; however, aerospace offers even longer visibility (40-50 years) Best video to watch out for to understand the industry Recent results from players like Aequs, Dynamatic Technologies, Sansera, and Azad have been impressive. Next Auto & Auto Ancillaries Overall, good numbers across the sector. As things normalize post Q2FY27, it will be important to track how the industry shapes up Premiumisation will be a key trend to monitor for auto ancillaries. CV Encouraging performance across players Encouraging signs From Tata Motors Concall "We are looking at improved levels of demand in Q4 as well across all the segments. And also buses demand will increase now, especially because they are cyclical and do well in Q4 and Q1 of each financial year. Therefore, going ahead, I think on trucks, the sharp recovery in Q3, we are certainly looking forward to continue this momentum in trucks." Even the CV index has been showing relative strength versus the Nifty 500 since around November 2025. Keep an eye on- OEMs Ancillaries Financiers Also, Keep tracking monthly sales data It is important to continuously track businesses, numbers, and most importantly management commentary. In the end "Everything takes time & time is money" 🙃
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r8b8
r8b8@rishh94·
@iamMAQ_ They are on track to do 200 Cr revenue from Purple Fabric in the 1st year of launch of the product. Most AI companies are not able to do that. I would watch how they scale the product in next 2-3 years. Seems to be on track so far.
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MAQ🇮🇳
MAQ🇮🇳@iamMAQ_·
@rishh94 But are Indian MSME ready for its usage now. They have to get a marketing team on field to scale it up. They have not given any updates on it
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MAQ🇮🇳
MAQ🇮🇳@iamMAQ_·
Intellect Design Arena rolls out Enterprise AI on Tap, a subscription-based solution on the Purple Fabric AI platform @ 99500 per month for MSMEs I have no idea how it would work I am looking at below charts for some respite Long term trend channel #intellect
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r8b8
r8b8@rishh94·
@iamMAQ_ Increasing TAM of the product and not limiting it to Tier 1 financial institutions. They are doing what AWS did for compute. Building a pure SAAS product. If this scales, margins will sky rocket. HODL to the moon.
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MAQ🇮🇳
MAQ🇮🇳@iamMAQ_·
@rishh94 any idea what’s going on What would they achieve by launching the platform on a smaller level. It would require different set of marketing activity to scale and is Indian MSME are even ready or aware to use AI Having difficulty in understanding the value proposition here
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r8b8
r8b8@rishh94·
@WizardsUnknown Intellect has been doing what the market wants top IT companies to do, investing heavily in R&D. Purple Fabric can be scaled to a 1,000 Cr business pretty soon, considering the rate of AI adoption. They are sitting on massive operating leverage which will kick in once R&D slows.
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Unknown Market Wizards
Unknown Market Wizards@WizardsUnknown·
nCino, a SaaS company providing software solutions to financial institutions in the US. Has a larger customer base, benefits form Salesforce ecosystem but no major AI pivot yet. Intellect has already cracked a few deals (200 Cr purple fabric contract with a London brokerage firm, GRC AI project in Canada etc). Purple fabric as standalone platform can be sold to companies that don't even use their products, has better optionality. nCino is growing at 12-13%, still GAAP unprofitable, has $180mn in debt, does not seem to have any AI narrative yet, despite a big valuation reset still trades at 3.4x EV/Sales. Intellect is growing at 20%+ with visible AI platform contribution, has ~$150mn in cash, trades at 3.2x EV/Sales.
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Unknown Market Wizards@WizardsUnknown

Keeping QoQ volatility and promoter guidance aside, market has been much less forgiving on margin miss. Intellect design R&D + AI capex is currently at 60 Cr/quarter (majorly purple fabric). On 3000 Cr revenue that's 4-5% straight impact (on top of 30 Cr labour code one off this quarter). ARR & platform revenue growth has been strong. And if purple fabric picks up as a category platform, there is a decent possibility of AI-led rerating. Expect large drawdowns on bad quarters.

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r8b8
r8b8@rishh94·
My two cents on the whole IT debate: The "Death of IT" is just the end of mediocrity.
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r8b8@rishh94·
@iamMAQ_ @Manojeet_Das Yup. All LLMs are generative and probabilistic. In the financial sector, 'mostly right' is 100% wrong. You cannot have probabilistic transactions and a bank balance. AI will, in fact, boost margins of businesses as employee costs will drastically reduce due to productivity gains.
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MAQ🇮🇳
MAQ🇮🇳@iamMAQ_·
@rishh94 @Manojeet_Das I work in financial sector and I understand one basic thing that core banking is the last thing that any institution will gamble on.
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