
rob dis
4K posts



At no point was the scenario of a major 1-2+ foot blizzard the “expected scenario”. But probabilistic forecasting involves recognizing that lower probability scenarios — especially if dynamically supported and not negligible nor associated with known model biases — can’t be written off prematurely. It’s a basic concept in probabilistic forecasting: if the forecast is well calibrated, 20% probability of precipitation means it will verify with rain 2 out of 10 times such a forecast is made. If you feel an 80% probability of no rain is safe enough to say it won’t rain, 8 out of 10 times you’ll be right, but the consequences of missing those 2 events it does rain could be severe depending on the impacts.


@6abcadamjoseph Global warming!


How about 6" now observed there. Well done NAM, well done. Radar is off too .


😳SHOCKING: Cody Rhodes VIOLENTLY attacks the NYPD







