Robert W Colby

The escalating conflict with Iran and fears of overinvestment in technology have driven short-term trend changes that may not be lasting. The major trend of the broad US stock market remains clearly bullish. See: robertwcolby.com

The following rose to new highs last week, confirming their bullish trends: Transportation (IYT) Industrial (XLI) Health Care (XLV) Financial (XLF) The Cumulative Daily Advance–Decline Line (A/D Line) See: robertwcolby.com

Our Colby INNOVATION Portfolio is up 59% for the first half of 2026, which is 521% better than the 10% gain for the S&P 500 index. In addition, our Bull/Bear Portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 64%. SEE: robertwcolby.com

We outperformed in the fist half. Still bullish on US stock markets. The following ETFs rose to new highs, confirming their bullish trends: Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP) Transportation (IYT) Regional Banking (KRE) Health Care (XLV) See: robertwcolby.com

Bullish strength confirmed by new highs for A-D line, Small Caps (IWM), Transportation (IYT), Industrial (XLI), Regional Banking (KRE), Real Estate (XLRE). See: robertwcolby.com

Bullish evidence--New all-time highs for IWM small caps, XLI industrials, EEM emerging markets. Breadth still strong. Sentiment moderate. Ignore the bears.

A more selective, mixed market appears to be developing. Large-cap U.S. stock price indexes confirmed a strong bull market trend, but momentum and breadth show moderate deterioration for the short term. See: robertwcolby.com

Stock price indexes tell the story of the day. The big-cap benchmark S&P 500 and the technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite rose to new highs, again proving exactly where demand is strongest in the stock market. Overweight the best performers. robertwcolby.com

The Bull is back! The S&P 500 index jumped 12.33% over the past 13 trading days—many bull markets began with similar large upthrusts. The technology-weighted, large-cap NASDAQ Composite is even stronger, up 17.67%. See: robertwcolby.com

Trump has made Iran an offer it can’t refuse, negotiate on his terms or risk a catastrophic outcome. But Iran clings to hope that Trump’s falling approval ratings may force him to blink first. robertwcolby.com

Fear and Loathing in the Middle East... See: robertwcolby.com

The Iran conflict is motivating Extreme Fear Investor Sentiment, which is bullish according to The Art of Contrary Opinion. robertwcolby.com

· $VIX and Put/Call Ratios spiked to 2 standard deviations above their means last week, while CNN Investor Sentiment fell into the Fear zone as the major technology stocks declined again on the same old AI fears. Fear is bullish, according to The Art of Contrary Opinion.

Relative strength has broadened to favor smaller, less-glamorous stocks. See: robertwcolby.com

New Highs confirm a major bull market—with no significant technical divergences. See robertwcolby.com

Record new highs again confirm the major bull market trend. Our Colby CDT program outperformed the S&P 500® Index in 2025 and in 2026 so far. See: robertwcolby.com

Minor price pullbacks won’t stop the bull. Despite a 5-day a minor price pullback, U.S. Equities remain in bullish major trends. International Equities rose to higher highs on Friday, signaling fresh bullish momentum. See: robertwcolby.com

Santa Clause is coming to bring us Happy Holidays! See: robertwcolby.com

Seasonal tendencies for US stocks are bullish for the next two months. See: robertwcolby.com

The larger-trend Bull has won the battle against the short-term momentum Bear. See: robertwcolby.com