Rob Schaper

What happens when 30+ job seekers gather at the AI2 AI House in Seattle to try something new: vibe coding apps tailored to job listings? 🚀 Spoiler: magic happens. 👇

If you’re trying to figure out who is most exposed to downtown Seattle office pain, don’t just look at banks!! HomeStreet and WaFd are worth watching because of their real estate lending exposure, but some of the biggest visible stress in downtown Seattle is also landing on non-bank lenders, insurers, and institutional capital. The bigger issue maybe is not just who made the loans. It is who is left holding risk as office vacancy stays elevated and refinancing gets harder!

Dead serious. We’re going to begin looking at which banks have big exposure to Seattle CRE. If she pushes this bill forward there could be great shorting opps. Probably won’t want more than fdic deposit limit in a few of them. Doing this with PE teetering on the edge is nuts

@elonmusk @HarmlessYardDog Lazy and brilliant is the WORST combination.

@HarmlessYardDog We got lazy

Which one of you bozos thought it was a good idea to build the entire world economy off just in time supply chains from the most unstable regions on the planet?

@DiscussingFilm Let him cook.

@DiscussingFilm I’m sorry, but he isn’t an action star, but I’m hopeful this will entertain me more than the thing he did with Natalie Portman. He was great as “Jim” in the office.

First teaser for the ‘JACK RYAN’ movie. Releasing May 20 on Prime Video.

@OilyBigDog @DiscussingFilm

@robschaper @DiscussingFilm You thought you cooked lmao fucking mouth breather

@OilyBigDog @DiscussingFilm Don’t get all oiled up over it. He is just a comedian, people love him, it’s okay. Doesn’t make him an action star from my perspective. Cheers, enjoy your oils and doggy collars.

@robschaper @DiscussingFilm He’s literally a fucking action star despite what the premise of the first episode was lmao are you retarded or ?

@OilyBigDog @DiscussingFilm The whole point of the show is that he is “just an analyst”, right, he literally says that one of the first episodes. It’s a very good show. He is not an action star.

@robschaper @DiscussingFilm Umm there’s 4 seasons of this show of him literally being an action star

@TobeyLouG @1FettFan @DiscussingFilm I will check it out. Is it based on a true story?

@1FettFan @robschaper @DiscussingFilm Amazing movie btw…

@briantommy79 @GameOvRMan @DiscussingFilm Yes, you could say Jim wasn’t there for paper. He was there for Pam.

@robschaper @GameOvRMan @DiscussingFilm He never seemed like he was that great of a sales guy either. 😂

NBA expanding to Seattle and Las Vegas is maybe the only positive thing the league has going for it (and the owners know it). This could be the big reset they’ve needed to relaunch the league with a new identity. And some cash! They are about to lose LeBron and have nobody else to prop up the circus tent. Everyone will be arguing about LeBron vs Michael and nobody in the current class even close. Tanking, gambling, talent dilution, and the way the entire league loses integrity later in the season, it doesn’t feel like a real league anymore (feels more like Harlem Globetrotters stuff). Hopefully the reset changes things.

Received a text back from one NBA owner tonight on expansion: “No brainer. It’s gonna happen.” We’ll have 5-7 more stories on Seattle and Vegas teams @WireHoops this week.

@GameOvRMan @DiscussingFilm He sells paper, I’m sorry, he is married to Pam AND Emily Blunt, he has enough, stop giving him more than he deserves. He is not an action star, he was good in that Clooney football movie though.

@robschaper @DiscussingFilm Obviously you haven’t seen this show or 13 Hours.

@WestMichAnon @DiscussingFilm Harrison Ford was an EXCELLENT Jack Ryan, the guy who played Jim from The Office is not. Sorry.

@robschaper @DiscussingFilm He's actually excellent at Jack Ryan, but Jack Ryan was never supposed to be a super soldier.

@GameOvRMan @DiscussingFilm Obviously you haven’t seen The Office or that Natalie Portman thing. HE SELLS PAPER. HE IS NOT AN ACTION STAR. SORRY.

@robschaper @DiscussingFilm You have no idea what you’re talking about.

The US Supreme Court will end up ruling on this, guaranteed, the way it’s written. First and second amendment issues at play here. (Disclaimer: I’m not a lawyer, I can’t see the future, no project looking glass for me, just an educated guess/opinion) The strongest future challenge is probably a First Amendment challenge, not a pure Second Amendment challenge. The state will likely argue it is regulating the functional mechanism for producing illegal or untraceable firearms. Challengers will then argue Washington is regulating publication, transfer, and possession of digital information, which runs straight into federal constitutional protections? The Supreme Court then could eventually get involved, but only if lower courts split. That may or may not happen. That is the key though. Right now the law around code-as-speech in the ghost-gun context is not fully settled. If one circuit upholds this kind of law and another strikes it down, then SCOTUS becomes much more likely to step in.

I've been quiet about Washington's HB 2320. That changes today. I'm Norwegian. I don't own a firearm. I'm a 3D printing hobbyist and I run a maker community. That's my stake in this. This isn't a gun thread. It's a maker thread. 🧵

After 40 years (born and raised) I left WA. Moment is leaving this month as well. I'm not even a millionaire affected by this tax. But when you add up all the costs to run a business in WA we can't afford it. You can build a remote team and re-open in Wyoming, removing all of these costs. WA is incredibly beautiful (especially the summers) and the people are great. Unfortunately the numbers don't lie and unless you run a super high margin software business, WA is just too expensive. Personally...you'd never pick WA to start a company. - Gas taxes (now some of the highest in the state) - Sales tax (up to 10.5% in Seattle) - Property tax (1% of your home value with a path they can take this to 3%. In total $ this tax they have increased nearly 100% over the last decade) - Capital gains tax (new in the last three years went form 0 -> 9%. it targets business owners and not real-estate). - Estate tax (they recently changed it to a progressive system that is up to 35% just to the state of WA) - Housing prices are some of the highest in the country. - Food costs are unreal, just visit a Seattle restaurant or grocery store. Business... - Very little capital. Great angels but almost no VC or larger funding sources. - Super high salaries for tech talent (this has changed but amazon, microsoft, etc paid very high rates for a very long time). - B&O Tax: paid as a % of your sales. - Sales & Use Tax (this is the real killer) What pushed us out was the recent change to Sales & Use Tax. It used to be you paid this tax on physical things you bought for your business, similar to sales tax. Now you pay it on 100% of the items you buy, think shopify, aws, google, etc. Even if your team is remote you pay 10% sales tax on 100% of these purchases no matter where peole are located. But the real kicker, was they expanced this law to be a tax that applies to all digital advertising. Run FB ads in Germany? You pay WA state a 10% tax. Overnight that is a+$200K a year tax that did not exist last year. Again not even based in where your ads run or where your team is. Incorporated in WA state? You will pay this tax. What makes this sad is all political diversity disappeared years ago. It's that debate that keeps government from taking everything. One political team has run the state for +30 years and Seattle for more than 50 years. This train has been coming for years and is now accelerating. WA government can never have enough $. I hope there is a new generation of company builders who see this is an opportunity and can run into the burning building.

Millionaire tax Flight is a real thing, lots of research backing it up. Would love to see the data you are referring to though, Id be happy to take a look and offer a concurrence (you probably won’t). Also, the tax you refer to applies to households, so technically two people who are not millionaires themselves are classified as one because of whom they are married. Cheers Michael.

Millionaire Tax Flight is not a real thing. Of course, you can find instances of rich people moving (and, of course, they say it was because of taxes), but anecdotes aren't data. And the data is clear. Rich people don't move out of state because of taxes.

@pmitu If I was on LinkedIn I would see your post three weeks from now. (Will update you then)

Talk to me like we're on LinkedIn 👇

@KYRRadio Leaving simply fills the vacuum with space, instead…MAKE MORE NOISE. Spread the word. Show them who you are. What you are made of.

It violates the constitution and has been rejected by voters 11 times. And for that reason, I’m out. It’s been real, WA

People should be encouraged to speak up, as the special interest groups operate in the dark because they know they can’t stand the sunshine. Homelessness, drug addiction, poverty in the streets of Seattle, all managed by special interest groups, and it’s embarrassing to see our leaders not doing the obvious and common sense thing. Lake City Way. Aurora Ave N in North Seattle. Our leaders allow a disgusting layer to grow and persist. Why? Putting drug addicts in tiny homes? I’m not that dumb to call for that calloused virtuosity. It’s evil to treat someone suffering in this way! People are waking up. And they need to be encouraged to speak their mind, or unions and special interest groups will own every piece of them.

I hope so. But I fear there's massive voter apathy, "vote blue no matter who", and an incompetent state GOP that are blockers. I'm amazed how many don't even know what's going on in Olympia, and seemingly don't care. I really don't care about party as much as I want common sense and less extremism. Hopefully this will get people to participate now.

I've been in tech in the PacNW since the early 90s, working for big companies, and many start ups. There will never be the equivalent of one of these companies founded, or based in Washington. (founded, maybe. But they won't stay.) If you're a newbie to the Seattle area, these companies are legends and it's time to get a clue on the history. Under the new taxation, the founders of these companies would have never successfully grown and collectively hired hundreds of thousands: Attachmate WRQ Microsoft Amazon Avalara Concur (SAP) McCaw Cellular (Now AT&T wireless) Expedia T-Mobile Aldus (acquired by Adobe) Immunex ZymoGenetics Real Networks F5 REI Eddie Bauer Costco Zillow Starbucks Expediters International Alaska Airlines Paccar Airborne Express UPS (yes, UPS was founded in Seattle) Nordstrom Eagle Hardware (acquired by Lowes) Blue Origin Why would a founder of any of these companies start the equivalent of any of these legends if they'd have to give up 10% to the state when they're still in an early stage? And save me the sanctimonious "paying my fair share" virtue signaling. Grow up. This is one of the most aggressive tax schemes in the country. And our once vibrant economy will be relegated to satellite offices and incubator stage companies. Nice work, Washington!