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While you've been watching the war...
VG has FID'd Ph2 CP2, the next stage of a 4 Bcfpd behemoth that should be onstream by end of the decade and pushes US LNG exports up to 30 Bcfpd with some nameplate outperformance. US LNG exports are at record highs currently (20 Bcfpd) and performance this summer should be very high as the incentive to roll maintenance out is high.
LNG Canada has ramped to full capacity, not without hiccups yet but run rates have been impressive. Great timing to have a project ramped up and supplying Asia. The next 6-9 months should give us clarity on LNG-C Ph2 but also Rockies, and then timing and potential upside for Cedar, Woodside, and a potential relaunch of Pacific Trails which could resurrect the old Kitimat site as a potential new LNG project. I also think we hear more big ideas in the Hudson Bay.
Feds & AB paper agreement on intra-provincial reviews, putting more control in AB's hands - hopefully a good sign ahead of MOU April 1st deadline which is mere weeks away.
ENB Mainline getting ready for indigenous sell down; could be a big couple years for indigenous investment in infrastructure both brownfield and greenfield. Political will to involve crown corps in big infrastructure deals is growing, and IOC involvement will be an obvious plank of inclusion.
Shell: Global demand for LNG is expected to rise by 54% to 68% by 2040. The big report is pushed out (waiting to see how tight we get with Qatar down) but clearly things looking more and more constructive for LNG projects in 'secure' juristictions.
SEI acquires Genco (+400 MW) and adds 500 MW turbine orders to grow fleet to 3.1 GW by '29 (0.5-0.8 Bcfpd). As large turbine orders remain the big backlog item, the widening reciprocating market will consume a significant amount of gas.
DOE Authorizes 13% Export Increase at Plaquemines LNG
US power demand growth (2.4%) outpaced supply growth (1.1%) in 2025, tightening power balances. With coal prices ramping the summer 26 / summer 25 gas burn comparison and thermal market share shift should be very constructive for fall gas balances.
Europe finishes winter withdrals at 0.9 Tcf, near the 5 year low. They need to build at 2x last years rate with less access to supply just to finish anywhere near the 5 year average. TTF pricing will be lazer focused on Qatar's ability to get up and back into market before summer, because by fall, its too late.
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