Joanh Lupton /secretary

@JonahLupton I share my real-time TRADE alert (entry & exit points) on WhatsApp, free to join ✅ ➡️Copy search input Reply “555” to WhatsApp: +15742188451 Here’s the link : api.whatsapp.com/send?phone=157… 🎥 - DAILY LIVE TRADING 📖 - TRADE RECAPS ☢️ - PERSONAL STRATEGY

@JonahLupton My $UBER strategy plan! ⬇️

Let's talk about $UBER because it's been on my mind alot recently... I'm assuming others are also debating these questions in their spare time 😏 Last weekend I took a Waymo and it was a wonderful experience so it's fair to say I'm a big believer in robotaxis as the future of ridesharing. Right now it feels like Waymo is the leader in robotaxis but they only have ~3,000 cars (ie AVs) on the road doing ~500,000 rides per week. Tesla might be next but they have less than 150 cars (ie cybercabs) on the road doing less than 1,500 rides per week. $UBER currently has 1.5M human drivers (just in the US) but nothing in terms of robotaxis other than partnerships with Waymo and AVride (owned by $NBIS) however both options are very limited... Austin & Atlanta for Waymo... and Dallas for AVride. I do think it's possible that Waymo dumps $UBER in the future and just uses their own app in every market... however I could be wrong and maybe it goes the other way because $UBER does have 200M global customers which is massive distribution for any AV ridesharing service that wants scale. fwiw, $UBER currently does 200-250M rides per week which is 400-500x more than Waymo... however Waymo just raised capital at $126B valuation while $UBER currently trades at $153B valuation. I know some people think Waymo will be the winner but kind of crazy it's already worth 80% of $UBER with just 3,000 cars on the road vs $UBER with 1.5M US drivers and another 4M+ drivers outside the US. Over the past ~12 months $UBER has announced 15+ partnerships with different brands and OEMs including Lucid, Rivian, Nissan, Pony, Zoox, Nuro, Oro, WeRide, Baidu, Wayve, Volkswagon, May Mobility, Momenta, Mercedes and probably a few more that I'm forgetting about. I don't think we need to debate that $UBER already has massive distribution but my question is around these 15+ partnerships. Sure it's lots of constant PR which might sound good but we have very limited details... which of these AV companies has technology that is good enough to compete and scale? Putting tens or hundreds of thousands of AVs on the road in the coming years will be extremely expensive and capital intensive. I'm sure Baidu and Mercedes could handle the upfront capex but I don't know about these other brands. So who is covering the capex? the brand? uber? or do they split it? With the capex in mind, what does the rev share look like for these partnerships? Will it be the same across the board or does every partnership have different economics? For instance, let's say Pony.ai can't afford the upfront capex themselves, do they split it with $UBER? or does $UBER cover 2/3 of the capex but then they own 80% of the rev share? Let's say Baidu and Mercedes can afford the capex themselves and they want to go that route... does that mean $UBER just handles distribution & logistics but only gets to keep 1/3 of the rev share? Obviously I'm just making up numbers and scenarios because we don't have much else to go on. Would you prefer $UBER stay asset light and just collect a 1/3 toll like they do now? or do you want $UBER to leverage up the balance sheet to become asset heavy in order to get a bigger rev share % ? and here comes the monkey wrench in all of this... what if $UBER enables anyone with an AV (similar to what $TSLA might do)... to put their car onto the $UBER network in order to generate some extra income while they're working, sleeping or just not using the car? This would allow $UBER to stay asset light and maybe collect a higher % of the rev share since the car owner might be very happy just collecting 40% of the revenues since it's extra income for them not including the accelerated depreciation. I'd love to know how others are thinking about this... especially $UBER shareholders... what do you think is the right business/economics model going forward? and do you want them in the capex business in order to get a bigger rev share? I am very curious to see how this all plays out in the coming years. NFA. DYOR. **We have a tiny $UBER position at @FirstWaveFund because I think the valuation is attractive when you consider 200M customers with the potential to be the robotaxi leader... but I still have lots of concerns about what their strategy looks like going forward and what % of the ridesharing market they lose to Waymo and Tesla and if the TAM can grow big enough for all three companies to be winners? Best case for $UBER is the TAM keeps growing and even as they lose market share the economics for robotaxis are meaningfullly better than a human focused ridesharing network.

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