Roma Cryp

Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge: Week 2 results Posting the results now because tomorrow is Easter — a day off. All trades of the week including current value of open positions: 🇺🇸 US Forces Enter Iran by April 30 NO (0.20¢, 1000 shares) → $0.00 🐦 Elon Musk: March 31 – April 7 240–259 YES → -$38.00 260–279 YES → +$128.00 280–299 YES → -$40.00 300–319 YES → -$17.19 320–339 YES → -$5.40 240–259 NO (92.0¢) → +$7.97 240–259 NO (86.0¢) → +$14.00 320–339 NO → +$4.00 300–319 NO → +$5.20 🐦 Elon Musk: April 4 – April 6 90–114 NO → +$4.20 🐦 Elon Musk: April 6 – April 8 115–139 NO → +$12.10 40–64 NO → +$8.75 🐦 Elon Musk: April 3 – April 10 220–239 YES → -$53.64 240–259 YES → -$87.00 260–279 YES → +$219.00 280–299 YES → -$47.70 300–319 YES → -$20.60 200–219 NO → +$6.18 🌡️ Temperature markets (Shenzhen, Seoul, Taipei) Several trades with total profit ~ +$30 🐦 Elon Musk: April 7 – April 14 (opened April 11, valued at current price) 220–239 YES (20.3¢, 348 shares) 240–259 YES (37.0¢, 350 shares) 260–279 YES (26.0¢, 350 shares) 280–299 YES (10.0¢, 350 shares) 300–319 YES (3.1¢, 330 shares) These positions are included in the final bank at their current market price. 💰 Current bank (including all closed trades and current value of open positions): $710 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #Week2

Opened positions in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: Elon Musk # of tweets April 7 – April 14 Bin: 220–239 YES at 20.3¢ (348 shares) → amount $70.64 Bin: 240–259 YES at 37.0¢ (350 shares) → amount $129.50 Bin: 260–279 YES at 26.0¢ (350 shares) → amount $91.00 Bin: 280–299 YES at 10.0¢ (350 shares) → amount $35.00 Bin: 300–319 YES at 3.1¢ (330 shares) → amount $10.23 Total position amount: $336.37 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #ElonTweets

Why not?

Closed positions in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Shenzhen (Apr 10, 2026) 29°C YES (115 shares at 32.8¢) → closed at $0.00 → -$37.72 (-100.00%) 30°C YES (116 shares at 47.8¢) → closed at $1.00 → +$60.55 (+109.21%) 31°C NO (129 shares at 93.4¢) → closed at $1.00 → +$8.51 (+7.07%) Seoul (Apr 10, 2026) 11°C NO (49.8 shares at 86.4¢) → closed at $1.00 → +$6.77 (+15.74%) 12°C YES (32.3 shares at 51.9¢) → closed at $1.00 → +$15.54 (+92.68%) 13°C YES (32.4 shares at 23.0¢) → closed at $0.00 → -$7.45 (-100.00%) Taipei (Apr 10, 2026) 35°C NO (49.9 shares at 94.9¢) → closed at $1.00 → +$2.54 (+5.37%) Total result for these markets: +$48.74 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #Weathereather

Opened a position in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: Elon Musk # of tweets April 9 – April 11 Bin: 90–114 NO at 87.0¢ (49.7 shares) Amount: $43.24 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #ElonTweets

Opened positions in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Shenzhen (Apr 10, 2026) 29°C YES (115 shares at 32.8¢) → amount $37.72 30°C YES (116 shares at 47.8¢) → amount $55.45 31°C NO (129 shares at 93.4¢) → amount $120.49 Seoul (Apr 10, 2026) 11°C NO (49.8 shares at 86.4¢) → amount $43.03 12°C YES (32.3 shares at 51.9¢) → amount $16.76 13°C YES (32.4 shares at 23.0¢) → amount $7.45 Taipei (Apr 10, 2026) 35°C NO (49.9 shares at 94.9¢) → amount $47.36 Total position amount: $328.26 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #Weather

Open/Closed positions in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: Highest temperature in Seoul on April 9 Bin: 12°C YES (73.6¢, 67 shares) → closed at $1.00 → +$17.69 (+35.87%) Bin: 14°C NO (94.0¢, 53 shares) → closed at $1.00 → +$3.18 (+6.38%) Market: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 9 (31°C or higher) Bin: 31°C NO (95.4¢, 52.3 shares) → closed at $1.00 → +$2.41 (+4.82%) Bin: 29°C YES (58.0¢, 49.8 shares) → closed at $1.00 → +$20.92 (+72.41%) Bin: 30°C YES (32.0¢, 49.8 shares) → closed at $0.13 → -$9.46 (-59.38%) Total result for these markets: +$34.74 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #Weather

Closed positions in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 8 Bin: 26°C YES (39.1¢, 19.4 shares) → closed at $1.00 → +$11.81 (+155.75%) Bin: 27°C YES (53.1¢, 19.8 shares) → closed at $0.15 → -$7.54 (-71.75%) Bin: 28°C NO (93.1¢, 19.9 shares) → closed at $1.00 → +$1.37 (+7.41%) Bin: 27°C NO (91.0¢, 19.9 shares) → closed at $1.00 → +$1.79 (+9.89%) Total result for this market: +$7.43 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #Weather

Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 8 Bin: 27°C YES (53.1¢, 19.8 shares) → closed at $0.15 → -$7.54 (-71.75%) Bin: 27°C NO (91.0¢, 19.9 shares) — opened, amount $18.11 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #Weather

Closed a position in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: Elon Musk # of tweets April 6 – April 8 Bin: 40–64 NO at 93.0¢ (125 shares) Closed at 100.0¢ Profit: +$8.75 (+7.53%) #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #ElonTweets

Trial attempt — testing the weather market 🌡️ Opened positions in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 8 Bin: 26°C YES at 39.1¢ (19.4 shares) → amount $7.59 Bin: 27°C YES at 53.1¢ (19.8 shares) → amount $10.51 Bin: 28°C NO at 93.1¢ (19.9 shares) → amount $18.53 Total position amount: $36.63 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #Weather

Opened positions in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: Elon Musk # of tweets April 3 – April 10 Bin: 220–239 YES at 18.0¢ (298 shares) → amount $53.64 Bin: 240–259 YES at 29.0¢ (300 shares) → amount $87.00 Bin: 260–279 YES at 27.0¢ (300 shares) → amount $81.00 Bin: 280–299 YES at 15.9¢ (300 shares) → amount $47.70 Bin: 300–319 YES at 6.8¢ (303 shares) → amount $20.60 Bin: 200–219 NO at 93.8¢ (99.7 shares) → amount $93.52 Total position amount: $383.46 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #ElonTweets

Closed a position in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: US Forces Enter Iran by April 30 Bin: NO at 0.20¢ (1000 shares) Closed at 0.20¢ Profit/Loss: $0.00 (0.00%) #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #IranMarket

Opened a position in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: Elon Musk # of tweets April 6 – April 8 Bin: 40–64 NO at 0.93¢ (125 shares) Amount: $116.25 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #ElonTweets

Closed a position in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: Elon Musk # of tweets April 6 – April 8 Bin: 115–139 NO at 85.0¢ (100 shares) Closed at 97.1¢ Profit: +$12.10 (+14.24%) #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #ElonTweets

Summary of trades for the March 31 – April 7 market (all positions closed) 240–259 YES (28.0¢, 200 shares) → closed at 9.0¢: -$38.00 (-67.86%) 260–279 YES (36.0¢, 200 shares) → closed at 100.0¢: +$128.00 (+177.78%) 280–299 YES (20.0¢, 200 shares) → closed at 0.0¢: -$40.00 (-100.00%) 300–319 YES (9.0¢, 191 shares) → closed at 0.0¢: -$17.19 (-100.00%) 320–339 YES (3.9¢, 200 shares) → closed at 1.2¢: -$5.40 (-69.23%) 240–259 NO (92.0¢, 99.6 shares) → closed at 100.0¢: +$7.97 (+8.70%) 240–259 NO (86.0¢, 100 shares) → closed at 100.0¢: +$14.00 (+16.28%) 320–339 NO (98.0¢, 200 shares) → closed at 100.0¢: +$4.00 (+2.04%) 300–319 NO (89.6¢, 50 shares) → closed at 100.0¢: +$5.20 (+11.61%) 💰 Total for the market: +$58.58 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #ElonTweets

Opened positions in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: Elon Musk # of tweets March 31 – April 7 Bin: 320–339 NO at 98.0¢ (200 shares) → amount $196.00 Bin: 300–319 NO at 89.6¢ (50 shares) → amount $44.80 Market: Elon Musk # of tweets April 6 – April 8 Bin: 115–139 NO at 85.0¢ (100 shares) → amount $85.00 Total position amount: $325.80 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #ElonTweets

Opened a position in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: Elon Musk # of tweets March 31 – April 7 Bin: 240–259 NO at 86.0¢ (100 shares) Amount: $86.00 #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #ElonTweets

Closed a position in the Polymarket $500 → $5000 challenge Market: Elon Musk # of tweets April 4 – April 6 Bin: 90–114 NO at 93.0¢ (60 shares) Closed at 100.0¢ Profit: +$4.20 (+7.53%) #PolymarketChallenge #500to5000 #ElonTweets