
Ross Mander
1.5K posts

Ross Mander
@rossmander
Trader of sports. Mover and Shaker.
Leamington Spa, England Katılım Şubat 2009
655 Takip Edilen152 Takipçiler

@PictureSporting I play a bit at the Warwickshire County Council staff pitch. Amazed they still have it going.....
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@rossmander That was taken not long before the bulldozers arrived. All very sad
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Ross Mander retweetledi

Just in time for the election, DC and Abrams ComicArts are reprinting the classic series Uncle Sam. Check out our exclusive preview of this seminal comic. bit.ly/3NVGLGq

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I knew it. A new regeme is about to launch in our house.
Steven Pinker@sapinker
Parents Should Ignore Their Children More Often | It's better for the mental health of parents & kids, and it's evolutionarily natural. Not mentioned but relevant is Judith Rich Harris's evidence that parenting has little effect on children's personality, intelligence, or socialization. nytimes.com/2024/09/15/opi…
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@paulmotty @BetfairExchange I guess it can't, actually.
Their model shows a move towards candidate x > which causes the betting market to shorten > which causes the model to shorten > etc etc etc
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@paulmotty @BetfairExchange Do you know if the 538 or Nate Silver's models take in to account betting odds?
I know they take in to account "fundamentals" like the economy, incumbancy etc.
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My latest on #Election2024 for @BetfairExchange
Introducing a new odds-based ratings system to predict the electoral college.
betting.betfair.com/politics/us-po…
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Interesting that God blithely sat by when it came to Lincoln and Kennedy(and Garfield and McKinley), but was roused to action by this fella (and Gerald Ford) #r4today
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@BenCrellin Just went on to your feed to go through those pre electoin odds to find out if Leicester South was the biggest priced shock of the night.....Polls really didn't pick up these independent moves
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@JohnC12670149 @sianharries_ @twlldun Some of the Seats they gave Reform a 99% chance of winning were not close at all. Barnsley North and South.
They gave Hartlepool as 91%, again, not close.
Obviously, modelling the Reform vote was very difficult.
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@sianharries_ @twlldun It's not an exact science. I'll bet the 8 they didn't get were close? (And possibly a 3 way fight between Labour, Conservative and Reform - which makes it harder)
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@BenCrellin Have to think more than their EP. There are the 2 Barnsley seats straight away, that EP made 99%, and have both gone LAB
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@rossmander Do you think Labour will get less or more seats than EP predicted?
The bookies had them getting around 425
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These were the odds for the winner of each constituency before the exit poll came out (if anyone other than me cares)
#gid=720826628" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
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@BenCrellin EP made Reform a 99% chance in Barnsley North, and ended up nowhere near
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@BenCrellin I think the EP is going to miss here, isn't it?
Underestimating LD, overestimating Reform.
Hartlepool is 85% Reform on the EP, 1/8 odds pre EP
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@gsoh31 Exit Poll had Barnsley as a 99% to reform. The EP must be way out on this reform seat count. Hartlepool EP suggests 85% chance to Reform
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@sportslaureate "Fingers appear to be under the ball. Have you got another angle?"
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@guardian_sport @JacobSteinberg I'm not seeing much "we're going to roll over Slovakia/Italy/Romania" - I thought we had all agreed that we were rubbish and it's all Southgate's fault.
And while our route isn't "easy" - it most certainly is "easier" - and that is the (only) reason we're favs to win the Euros.
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The magic for Gareth Southgate and England has dried up at these Euros. Still, though, the old triumphalism is creeping back in.
By @JacobSteinberg theguardian.com/football/artic…
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It's the same deck as yesterday's game, no?
In which case he's a magician if he's changed it significantly in about 18 hours (rained for half of them)
#T20WorldCup2024
Ashwin 🇮🇳@ashwinravi99
For all the pitch talk, must say the curator has done a fine job to get this deck in order. It’s early in the game but definitely different to the previous games. #PakvsUSA #T20WordCup
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