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Rosternomics
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Rosternomics
@rosternomics
Every MLB trade, graded. Trade calculator, historical trade database, and GM rankings. The art of roster building meets the science of analytics. ⚾️
Katılım Mayıs 2026
21 Takip Edilen146 Takipçiler
@NaeNaeTakes We’ve got Ryan at +$14.6M / 2.6 WAR and the whole deal going Detroit’s way: x.com/rosternomics/s…
Rosternomics@rosternomics
#Tigers ⇄ #Dodgers → DET: Zyhir Hope, CF (+$26.5M / 3.3 WAR); River Ryan, RHP (+$14.6M / 2.6 WAR); Brady Smith, RHP (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR) → LAD: Tarik Skubal, LHP (+$16.2M / 1.5 WAR) Edge: Detroit (decisive)
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That shit says River Ryan 0.1 million 😂
Great model guys
Baseball Trade Values@BaseballValues
Today the #Dodgers reportedly acquired LHP Tarik Skubal ($30.2M surplus trade value) from the #Tigers in exchange for OF Zyhir Hope ($22.4M) and RHPs Brady Smith ($1.5M) and River Ryan ($0.1M) ($24.0M ttl). The deal is accepted by our model as a moderate underpay by Los Angeles.
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@FutureDodgers You’d think people like this would understand that even the 10th ranked prospect in baseball historically will probably turn out to be a replacement level to decent everyday player, not a star - the vast majority fizzle out
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Oh no, as it turns out, some prospects don’t pan out. This is news to me, a person who has an account specifically for prospect content.
@acase22@acase22
@FutureDodgers Yes, they are all overrated
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@FutureDodgers Our model certainly agrees with you, Ryan is a mature pitcher and perhaps never will be elite but even a consistent 3-5th starter holds more value than zero
x.com/rosternomics/s…
Rosternomics@rosternomics
#Tigers ⇄ #Dodgers → DET: Zyhir Hope, CF (+$26.5M / 3.3 WAR); River Ryan, RHP (+$14.6M / 2.6 WAR); Brady Smith, RHP (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR) → LAD: Tarik Skubal, LHP (+$16.2M / 1.5 WAR) Edge: Detroit (decisive)
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Perhaps the second most important player in the deal being quite literally zeroed out might be a flaw in the model
Baseball Trade Values@BaseballValues
@AdamMcCalvy Our model, at least, sees that package as significantly more valuable than what the Dodgers gave up:
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You’re proposing there’s some kind of collusion between baseball media and MLB to inflate Dodgers’ prospect values, such that front offices will blindly trade for bad players
Because they’ve been tricked into thinking they’re good? Yeah that’s not how the real world works or how orgs make decisions
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These lists are all Propaganda
River Ryan is almost 28, has an ERA above 4 and was listed as a top 100 all year
MLB wants Dodgers to win the deadline and 3 Peat so they can get a cap. Owners are devious
Thomas Nestico@TJStats
My Top 100 Prospects By Team
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Who won this one? Cast your vote now: rosternomics.com/trade/1nj1x14k…
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What do you think of this trade? Cast your vote here: rosternomics.com/trade/2ood1yyv…
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@UnderdogMLB @JeffPassan A truly incredibly haul for Detroit and a trade that could age poorly if the Dodgers don't figure out a way to resign Skubal x.com/rosternomics/s…
Rosternomics@rosternomics
#Tigers ⇄ #Dodgers → DET: Zyhir Hope, CF (+$26.5M / 3.3 WAR); River Ryan, RHP (+$14.6M / 2.6 WAR); Brady Smith, RHP (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR) → LAD: Tarik Skubal, LHP (+$16.2M / 1.5 WAR) Edge: Detroit (decisive)
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Trade summary, per @JeffPassan:
Dodgers get - Tarik Skubal
Tigers get - River Ryan, Zyhir Hope, Brady Smith
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@JeffPassan An incredible return for Detroit and a trade that could age very poorly if the Dodgers don't figure out an extension x.com/rosternomics/s…
Rosternomics@rosternomics
#Tigers ⇄ #Dodgers → DET: Zyhir Hope, CF (+$26.5M / 3.3 WAR); River Ryan, RHP (+$14.6M / 2.6 WAR); Brady Smith, RHP (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR) → LAD: Tarik Skubal, LHP (+$16.2M / 1.5 WAR) Edge: Detroit (decisive)
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are acquiring Tarik Skubal for outfielder Zyhir Hope, right-hander River Ryan and right-hander Brady Smith, sources tell ESPN.
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The Sox win the trade in terms of both net WAR and surplus value. The Castillo contract (although bad in a vaccum) is better than Dominguez’s. Plus you get a veteran who can hopefully improve you a young and developing pitching staff. Never thought I’d be a cheerleader for Luis Castillo but here we are
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Gonna be honest. I do not get it. I’ve been wrong before, but I don’t.
This is trying up more 2027 payroll in a below-average player and doesn’t seem to do anything to raise confidence in the 2026 postseason rotation.
Didn’t give up a lot, but how does this make us better?
Jeff Passan@JeffPassan
BREAKING: The Chicago White Sox are acquiring right-hander Luis Castillo in a trade with the Seattle Mariners for reliever Seranthony Dominguez, outfielder Nolan Jones and catching prospect Boston Smith, sources tell ESPN.
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Granted they do get Jones on a minor league deal, although it's been a while since he's been a productive major league player
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Of the two, Castillo's contract is the better one to have on the books (assuming he doesn't hit his vesting option in '28). He'll give you more volume and less volatility. Why did the Mariners want a relief arm this bad? Seemingly they were desperate to get rid of Castillo, but why didn't they target a bat in return? Presumably the market for Castillo was thin.
Bob Nightengale@BNightengale
The Seattle Mariners free up about $30 million in the Luis Castillo trade with the White Sox, making ownership happy, but they still desperately need a bat.
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@UnderdogMLB @JeffPassan x.com/rosternomics/s…
Despite offloading Castillo, Domiguez' high salary is the thing that flips this trade negative for Seattle - ultimately the model doesn't like paying a relief pitcher $10M AAV for production that flirts with replacement level
Rosternomics@rosternomics
#Mariners ⇄ #WhiteSox → SEA: Boston Smith, C (+$1.8M / 1.1 WAR); Nolan Jones, OF (+$1.7M / 0.7 WAR); Seranthony Domínguez, RHP (-$23.7M / 0.2 WAR) → CHW: Luis Castillo, RHP (-$11.8M / 3.8 WAR) Edge: Chicago (clear)
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Trade summary, per @JeffPassan:
White Sox get - Luis Castillo
Mariners get - Seranthony Dominguez, Nolan Jones, Boston Smith
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We're currently fixing a data problem with Luis Castillo's contract - a naming collision has resulted in him being shown as making a lot less than he should be. A fix will be deployed shortly with the full grade - thank you for your patience and stay tuned.
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Trade summary, per @ByRobertMurray:
Braves get - Lane Thomas, Bailey Falter
Royals get - Carter Holton, Lucas Braun
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Who won this trade? Vote now: rosternomics.com/trade/w8vgi4aoc
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Trade summary, per @FrancysRomero:
Pirates get - Camilo Doval
Yankees get - Omar Alfonzo, Luis Cruz
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