Abdu Rozik

Caption Contest went crazy 😂 $100 well spent on some legendary captions. What contest should we run next? Vote 👇

@APompliano If inflation is turning back up, even from a “good” level, that’s what starts to shift expectations.

Inflation now at 1.65% this morning. Although inflation is still below the Fed’s target of 2%, the real-time inflation metric has nearly doubled in just a matter of weeks. As I have been saying, the direction of travel is more important than the exact number.

@lookonchain the definition of diamond hands

A whale wallet 1NB3ZX, holding 2,100 $BTC($148M), woke up after 13.7 years of inactivity and transferred out 0.00079 $BTC($56). This whale received 2,100 $BTC on July 5, 2012, when $BTC was just $6.59. Now sitting on ~$148M in profit — a 10,710x return. bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/addres…

@AshCrypto dude was just testing if the wallet still working respect bro!

THIS IS INSANE. A wallet holding $147 million worth of BTC has just been activated after almost 14 years. This guy bought these $BTC when each one was worth only $6.5 A 10,846x return in over a decade.

@alfuratyalatiqe Discipline is doing the right thing when it’s uncomfortable, not when it’s easy. That’s where most people fall off.

Without the iron will of self-discipline, true success remains out of reach.

Good signal, but feels like context matters more this time. Previous cycles didn’t have ETF flows, macro pressure, and this level of institutional participation. So even if the setup looks similar, the path might not play out as cleanly. Could still mark a major low - just probably not as straightforward as past cycles.

The valuation of $BTC vs. Gold provides a monthly engulfing and shows strong signs. It doesn't mean that we immediately go up from here, as this has also happened in 2022. In that period in 2022, another drop happened, only due to the fact that FTX collapsed. In all other cases, 2015, 2018 and 2020, this type of price action on this indicator marked the low of the bear market for #Bitcoin.

@TheBTCTherapist lmao

Store of value my ass

@Cristiano Eid Mubarak 🤍 Peace, discipline, and gratitude - winning mindset on and off the field.

Eid Mubarak to all! 🌙 I hope you have a very special day with your family and loved ones. Wishing you all peace and happiness.

@seth_fin If what you’re saying is true, then most people don’t lose because they’re wrong…they lose because they stay too long trying to be right. The market gives chances to exit, not validation.

$BTC dumped right after my take profit post. Always take profit before the market takes it away from you. Otherwise spot and chill. Leverage is like playing with fire and the fire is alive and out to burn you. There seems to be short liquidation cluster up at 75K Bitcoin. This could motivate for a potential push.

@lookonchain Wakes up after 13 years… moves $56 😭 Bro was just checking if the network still works.

I get the symmetry, but markets love to rhyme… not copy-paste. Calling it “exactly like 2021” feels a bit too confident, especially when liquidity, ETFs, and macro flows are completely different now. If anything, the real trap might be assuming this cycle has to follow the last one.

BITCOIN BEAR AND BULL TRAPS ARE FOLLOWING THE 2021 SEQUENCE EXACTLY. Bear Trap: shook out bears. Check. Bull Trap 1.0: fooled bulls. Check. Bull Trap 2.0: forming right now. Last time this sequence completed: generational bottom followed. Hold $80K: bulls beat the bears. Lose it: bears fooled the bulls once again. The sequence has one more move. It always does.

@naiivememe this

You wake up and see this, what would you do?

Interesting take! Appreciate you laying it out this clearly. But feels like the model is getting treated a bit too deterministic here. Three cycles isn’t really enough to turn a lagging indicator into a rule, especially when market structure (ETFs, macro flows, institutional participation) has changed a lot since then. If anything, the more interesting question is: does this cycle still respect old signals… or is it starting to break them?

$BTC (1W) - 60K Was Not the Bottom The Gaussian Channel has never been wrong. In every cycle, Bitcoin's bottom formed after the channel flipped red, not before. ✅ 2015 ✅ 2018 ✅ 2022 The channel just turned red again. If history holds, 60K wasn't the bottom. One more leg down completes the pattern.

@GordonGekko Appreciate you sharing this, lots to unpack.

HUGE: Wall Street insiders are buying Gold options at $15,000-$20,000 for December 2026 This means they are betting that the gold price will at least 3X in the next few months 🤯 I have a meeting with some big hedge fund analysts later, and will find the exactly what is going on. I will of course let you know, as I always do.

I get the thesis, but it feels a bit too clean. Most of these signals (RSI, cost of production, long-term trendlines) only really matter if liquidity and macro allow them to play out. Right now, that part still looks shaky. Also worth noting: “best opportunity in 5 years” usually sounds obvious only after the move, not while the market is still this uncertain. Could be accumulation, sure, ut it can also stay “oversold” longer than people expect.

Everything points to one point : BUY MORE BITCOIN ! There hasn't been a better opportunity in 5 years. > Bitcoin vs Gold At the lowest relative level since 2023 → BTC undervalued vs hard assets > 5-Year Trendline Still holding long-term support → structure intact, not broken > Cost of Production Price sitting near miner breakeven → historically strong accumulation zone > Weekly Momentum (RSI) Lowest since the 2022 bear market bottom → exhaustion phase Markets don’t stay this compressed for long. Either panic sells here or smart money accumulates. Every cycle has this moment where: Fear peaks → conviction pays. Simple truth: You don’t get “perfect entries” in bull markets. You get uncomfortable ones that look wrong at first. This is one of them. Do you agree?

Quad witching always looks like a “big event” on paper, but most of the time it’s just positioning getting reshuffled, not a directional signal. The more interesting part is what happens after: if liquidity thins out and macro stays shaky, that post-expiry drift Nic mentioned tends to show up. Feels less like a single “big day” and more like the setup for the next few weeks.

Today is a BIG day. It's called the "quadruple witching". $4.7 trillion in equity and index derivatives expire simultaneously and it only happens 4 times a year. Bitcoin's historical pattern: muted on the day, then weakness in the weeks after. And next Friday, $13.5 billion in crypto options expire on Deribit. March isn't done with us yet.

Rising wedge + macro overhang feels like a trap more than a breakout setup right now. Price can break 76K, sure, but without real volume and cleaner macro conditions, it’s just liquidity getting pulled higher before the next move. Structure says “breakout level,” but context says “don’t trust it too early.”

Bitcoin is trending in a rising wedge pattern. It needs to break $76,000 for a bullish trend. Support: $66,000

@arkham @ABTC Feels like it has to pump eventually. The U.S. literally sold strategic oil reserves into strength to lock in profits. If they play commodities like that, there’s no way a Trump-linked entity stacks BTC at this scale without a similar exit strategy in mind.

AMERICAN BITCOIN IS MINING AND HOLDING $450M BTC The Trump Family’s BTC Mining company American Bitcoin is now the 16th largest BTC treasury company in the world. They hold 6,899 BTC worth $486M, inching ahead of Galaxy Digital with 6,894. Next target is GD Culture Group who hold $528M $BTC.

@arkham @ABTC hey @grok, what does it signal when a Trump-linked company is accumulating BTC at this scale?

$100M sounds big… until you put it in context. BlackRock alone manages trillions. Flows like this happen all the time: repositioning, rebalancing, not necessarily a directional call. If anything, the interesting part isn’t the sell…it’s whether this is distribution or just liquidity for someone else to step in.

🚨 BREAKING 🚨 BlackRock has sold $102,300,000 in Ethereum.

@GordonGekko hey @grok, what phase of the crypto cycle does this kind of sentiment usually appear in?

What part of the cycle is this?