rxvc

@CloisterRes "...to be partially paid in shares, and (ii) consequently, the pricing of a $45 million..."

So, am I reading it right that $ABVX bought back a 2% royalty on obe for $90M? Implies a value for the whole franchise of $4.5b, while market cap is sitting at >$9b. Kind of odd for the royalty holders to sell it so cheaply!

@BiotechAnalysst -50% in 2 months is quite something, even for Sangamo.

$SGMO flush that turd

@doepke_michel Wildly different companies and pipelines.

$CTMX reminds me a bit of $KYTX back in December. In the end, the prices below the offering price ($7.50 per share) turned out to be good entry points.

@rauchg @adamwathan Wow 👏

Vercel will be officially sponsoring tailwindcss.com. That's a given. We as a community and industry owe @adamwathan and team a lot. Tailwind is foundational web infrastructure at this point (it fixed CSS 😉). I've also reached out to Adam to explore how we can make this a longer-term commitment.

@Biohazard3737 Next time get a Danley.

@seedy19tron As always, a pleasure to read. Thank you for your time and efforts.

The Weekly New: $pali (2%) Increased: $nktr (10%) , $ovid (5%) Unchanged: $abvx (60%) , $slno (20%), $nxtc (1%) Decreased: $cogt (1%), $ibio (1%) Closed: $rytm , $celc , $nvo , $tern , $cmps , $ptn , $dawn , $asnd , $nams The last Weekly of 2025, slightly delayed due to how busy things have been. It’s been a life changing year for me, I will look back on 2025 with fond memories. It’s not been easy, the start was a terrible one with $veru losses and $arvn margin call but stuck at it. This X account has grown 10 fold and my port a few further multiples of that. More than the numbers, I am so grateful for the connections and the people I’ve had the pleasure of meeting and learning from. My life and financial goals I set myself for when I would be 30 were met this year. There is just something about biotech investing where you can’t just take your eyes off it. The difficulty, the surprises, and drama , get me out of bed every morning. It has taken a toll, the huge swings , the high level of expectations I have from myself to deliver and the stress, thus I have made a decision to take a break for a few weeks so I could go explore and travel a little. Starting with Brazil and Uruguay next week. As a result of this decision, I harvested some losses and left only have my highest conviction plays in my port until I can be on my desk fulltime to do justice those who follow me and my portfolio. Focusing on the commentary, let’s start with $abvx , look the more I see , the more I am convinced that the potential is so great. Abstracts seem like negotiating leverage on the CD multiple which is good. Anti-fibrotic efficacy = holy grail in IBD. If this hits, it’s a Top 5 I&I asset, period. Every other mechanism (JAKs, S1Ps, IL23s) works across indications. Only Entyvio is gut-restricted. so wonder what other indications Obe can be tried in? Including reviving RA. Even if you take a 1x multiple of peak sales on Crohn’s and we are talking a mid-$200s deal. You see 840k pts x 15% share x $35k price = $4.1B for UC alone , Risk adjusted 85% still $3.75B Then Crohns 660k pts x 10% share x $35k price = $2.3B , 45% risk adjusted gives you $1B ~$5B conservative numbers 4x Peak Sales (Standard for de-risked late-stage I&I assets) you get a $20b deal price assuming it’s not a super competitive process which would even push the valuation higher. $slno , the piece that we’ve been working on that will help you understand why it’s so undervalued here is nearly ready. Will share with you soon. Next up, I’ve been super quiet on $nktr , and whilst I added, it’s important for you all the understand that with $nktr you’ve got a promotional management team with a graveyard of failures until recently. The lack the specialist funds guiding them and TCGx exiting doesn’t help. Settlement isn’t a catalyst I would want to hold the stock as it’s a lottery ticket. The other problem is we got the AA data. It was good. It should’ve gotten us paid. It didn’t, and it’s been a theme with this name, but I do think eventually folk will come around but if you take the lawsuit off the table, you are staring down the barrel of an execution slog on two massive Phase 3 programs. They need to raise a boatload of cash to cross the finish line. M&A? Unlikely given the baggage although would make sense for all parties. I don’t love the setup. This could be dead money unless you’re willing to underwrite a 3-year horizon and eat the dilution. But let’s not forget Rezpeg is actually a real drug. Solid in 2nd-line AD and a legitimate shot in AA as a safer post-JAK alternative. I added $pali again, most of the buying on Friday was me as I think in the 1s irrespective of $abvx it is undervalued. $ovid I was so happy to see Affinity and RA filings, think $1.3 is the floor here and upside still multifold with another catalyst albeit not huge in Q1. 1/2

@bioinvestor24 What about $SNY?

$ABVX probably jinx by Jared Holz who highlighted as M&A candidate $LLy will not go for $ABVX. Impossible $MRK could ? $PFE is gone. $ABBV clearly not interested or would not trash the molecule otherwise. $JNJ ? Seems more interested in $PTGX $BMY will not waste funds on this as clearly focused on obesity now . $NVS guy is primarily RNA .. $RHHBY going primarily metabolic and HTN Merck probably highest chance. Or Takeda ?

@MysteriousMole1 Looks like someone tried to trigger a selloff in $CTMX following the $JANX news.

@thegunnerab What do you mean?

$DAWN  All the signs are there. The latest one came in yesterday's filing. Ignore them and you won't be happy!

@bkfViking123 Your tech skill is really good. Been following you for a while.

called the exact bottom x.com/bkfViking123/s…

@seedy19tron Love reading your weekly. Thank you for the effort.

New: $agio , $cogt, $celc , $nxtc , $tern , $rytm Increased: $abvx , $slno , $capr (s) ,(undisclosed) Unchanged: $cmps , $crbp , $inbx (s), $avtx , $ovid, $dawn, $pali Decreased: $nktr Closed: $avxl (s) , $prax , $cdtx , $qure Awesome week since the last update. $xbi continues to outperform. $cdtx was a HUGE win and it’s not even the highlight over the last week. I got time with some of my friends and folk I look upto in biotech. Starting with $abvx , they said on Tuesday in a 1:1 that they think in UC alone they can do $4b peak sales. Possibly even higher. EMA filing after Q2 maint data. My takeaway from that session was that I have nothing to worry about staying long. $agio we’ve spoken about , I sold 22.5p for Jan, seemed like an obvious trade alongside the common id bought. $cogt first two days of the conference was pitched to me by a number of folk. Towards the back end, a few of the others reminded me that peak sales aren’t that high. Anyways I think stock still works from here, upside isn’t as high as some people think. But good long in the low 30s. $celc again liked by many, some were gutted they don’t get in earlier. They could announce the subq soon which would be another tailwind. $nxtc following the PIPE surprised it hasn’t moved as much , but $rlmd took some time too , and look at where it’s gone. ( $rlmd was also a unanimously liked stock) $tern was loved by almost everyone. And for good reason, if you really believe they can take on the whole CML market, then it’s still cheap here. I sold in the teens, and back in the mid 20s that’s how convinced I am about the upside. Other tickers people liked were $vtyx , $olma / $arvn (if $NVS had to pick $arvn probably makes more financial sense here, SERDs are all effectively the same). $pvla pitched as a short , $Insm could be the next big mega merger it’s either that or $ucb , also $gmab is a short and $MDGL not liked at all by quite a lot of folk. But everyone agrees shorting on valuation is not the move right now. Catalyst driven shorting better. Which is why I’m not happy with $inbx I really think they’re running an elaborate Ponzi scheme with all this privately informing investors that they have buyers lined up for $125+. I just don’t have enough to prove it , but I firmly believe that something super sketchy is going on behind the scenes with this one. I also closed $PRAX and $qure , $PRAX will be allowed to file but I’ve come to the conclusion no way do they get approved for ET. You could stay long and make money still from here. $qure I sold finally because there are so many good cleaner setups out there , reg plays are not the one till more certainty comes through. Can you make money .. yes , but think I’d rather stick to my forte and that certainly isn’t reg plays under this regime. $nktr I just don’t know what the upside is from here. At $80 they have 2m warrants , AA hit would be good but even then not sure if it’s worth sticking around where it’s closer to a top imo. I’m still short the 70p in size, you’ll see in the OI I haven’t close it yet, but let’s see not sure whether I roll the position or not. $slno I’ve been buying but feedback wasn’t great. I still think it’ll be triple figures in 12 months time , but if you are close to your cost basis, probably not best to add or maybe you could even sell. The chart is broken, and whilst expectations very low, I didn’t see many people bullish it although a lot a lot of smart people bought the dip and remain long. I hope everyone benefits from these. I am tired and look forward to resting , but be rest assured I’ll get the filings done and then AA readout preview.

@lcccc333 @DmitryKovalchuk No idea.

@rxvci @DmitryKovalchuk Who?

I am not sure where this weakness in $CTMX comes from. It happens almost every day for some time now. It feels like someone is systematically exiting their position.

@pharmafather123 I think it'll be in the range of $JNJ x $ITCI deal

Love $ABVX but it is getting too expensive for big pharma to acquire with a premium

@houndcl @Sanctuary_Bio Exactly, what does it say about DAY301 and mgmt confidence...

$DAWN to acquire $MRSN. On everyone's bingo card right? ir.dayonebio.com/news-releases/… $25/share + CVR up to $30.25

@hannibalspeaks Exactly right

What’s the average hiscr 50 placebo response, what happens when you subtract that from $IFRX data. Bonus: what is the expected error of mean for their per dose cohort sample size?

@Bionavgator @monaco_biotech @semodough So that considered a bad thing?

Market didn't like the fact they are planning to enroll 100 vs 70 prior guidance..If they had mentioned that enrollment was completed already with exceeded enrollment it wouldn't have reacted this way. They may be trying for AA path(as these are last line crc patients) hence increase in size would be a plausible explanation.. they are also not going for phase2 as previously mentioned in first half of 2026, surprised to see start of combo strategy for earlier lines this quickly, they have been consistent about potential pivotal study(not sure if this will be confirmatory) this all pointing towards aa path..just trying to read between the lines $ctmx

$CTMX - why is down premarket?

@pnani456 @semodough Not relevant. This piece of info was used as buying opp mid August.

@doepke_michel I think it’s the word I hate the most. “Encouraging”

Encouraging: $VSTM Announces Encouraging Preliminary Data from Ongoing Phase 1/2a Dose Escalation Trial of VS-7375, an Oral KRAS G12D (ON/OFF) Inhibitor, in Patients with KRAS G12D Mutant Solid Tumors (own shares) investor.verastem.com/news-releases/…

@Biotech2k1 "No value left in biotech" is a bit harsh, don't you think? Plenty of undervalued companies with a good pipeline, management teams, and cash runway/potential sales.

Spent yesterday after I sold a bunch of companies sorting my portfolio. I did a good analysis and pushed some companies up the ranks and others down the ranks. 4 more sank to the bottom which will get sold if the $XBI get to $115 and $120. That should get me to my cash requirements. That would reduce me to 13 companies. I plan to spend a lot of my time now outside of biotech looking for value. There is no value left in biotech. I am looking at Consumer Staples and REITs which have been hammered as the market bubble makes traders sell good slow growers to go chase FOMO.