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@ryanconnor

Head of Research @blockworksres/ @blockworks_ The most profitable arb is time horizon. Progress is boundless🇺🇸 tg: @ryanrconnor.

USA Katılım Nisan 2022
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Ryan | Loading... 🇺🇸@ryanconnor·
Each quarter, @blockworksres meets for our Quarterly Decision Review, where we rip apart our performance, learn from our mistakes, & grow as investors. The goal: outperform BTC over 40% of the time. TLDR: 2025 has been a good year for both our longs *and* shorts
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Reflecting on my time at Blockworks, I’d be remiss not to highlight the phenomenal work of the @blockworksres analyst team. The BWR team went from *zero* to the leading crypto research & data platform in the industry. There are many reasons why - raw talent, org culture, ambition, open mindedness, discipline alpha process, etc etc. I could write 10,000 words on why this team is special. But at the end of the day, success in our industry boils down to one thing: prediction. More specifically, being right about the future when everyone else is wrong. There are few teams that have been as ahead of the curve on so many industry trends. Below I reflect on some specifics. *Alpha* - the team correctly identified that *alpha* is the critical wedge for a crypto research shop. Plenty of research sounds really smart, but historically, it was rare that crypto research was aimed at helping investors generate exceptional returns. Coming from tradfi, for me, this was an obvious gap in our industry. So much of crypto research was just waxing poetic about some improbable future state, or diving far too deep on some questionably relevant technical upgrade. Fun to read, doesn’t help me invest. We recognized this gap & went the other direction: we benchmarked ourselves to the price of bitcoin. Analysts were expected to find underappreciated opportunities & measure their call against the market. We developed a process for identifying alpha opportunities and achieved consistently strong hit rates on both long & short calls as a result, making a name for ourselves in the crowded crypto research space. *Fundamentals* - What sticks out to me from 2024: being laughed at. Constantly. The highest performing tokens have a good narrative, they told us. Nothing else matters, FDV can go as high as narrative & 'memetic value' can take it. We got strange looks at best, & backlash at worst, when we applied traditional valuation measures and competitive frameworks to tokens, proposed shorting popular tokens with ridiculous valuations, and helped popularize REV accounting, which quantified revenue & free cash flow for smart contract platform tokens. We focused on traditional metrics, business strategy & durability of cash flows while the entirety of ct was focused purely on stories. Fast forward 24 months, & it is now *obvious* to the vast majority of crypto market participants & ct that fundamental analysis & a traditional valuation lens were the correct ways to assess token opportunities over the period. So how did we get this right? Why did this happen in 2024 and not 2021? The BWR team correctly understood that, as the marginal buyer of crypto assets flips from degen/retail to institutional/tradfi, market characteristics would start to mirror the values of that new investor class. Fundamental measures like revenue would *obviously* be top of mind, and valuations must make sense. It’s a new market now, and only a handful of people got this write. I like to think Blockworks was one of the voices leading this change. *Shorts* - I’ve been told by a number of people that BWR was the first research shop to write explicit short reports. A simple “This is not the right price for this token” goes a long way, and we did this when most were extremely critical of us for doing so. It was never personal, just objective, as best as we could possibly be. Our hit rates here were high, but most importantly, we weren't dogmatic about our positions. We'd happily go long or short any token at any time. When the facts changed, we changed. At any rate, I like to think we helped people avoid mispriced assets over the past 2+ years. *Solana ecosystem* - The team was super early to SOL & the Solana ecosystem, when it was *extremely* unpopular. They nailed SOL’s rise in Q3/Q4 2023 (before my time at BWR), and nailed follow through. We were super early to identify pumpfun and tg bots as legitimate businesses in crypto, and reasoned about the knock-on effects of their activity on the broader ecosystem. Through 2024, we correctly shifted focus to the then emerging solana ecosystem, which is now, by many measures, the most commercially successful ecosystem in crypto. *Hyperliquid* - the BWR team, led by @GoldDefi and @salveboccaccio, correctly identified hyperliquid as an emerging & likely dominant perps platform, with an airdrop worth farming. Then @shaundadevens took the lead, deepening our coverage & correctly nailing the importance of HIP-3 & RWA markets. There are countless more examples I could point to, but I won’t attempt to cover them all here. What stands out is the consistency and the clarity of the mission: be ahead of the curve, popular industry opinion be damned. I’m grateful to have been part of such a talented group, & I have no doubt they’ll continue leading from that front. you can follow the team here: @blockworksres @0xMether @salveboccaccio @0xcarlosg @marcarjoon @Kunallegendd @shaundadevens @_dshap @defi_kay_ @0xMetaLight @minnus
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Personal Update: This is my last week at Blockworks. What @JasonYanowitz & @MikeIppolito_ have built is truly exceptional - high talent density, high work ethic, *great* people. I’m gonna miss this team, & I’m grateful for everyone here that made this chapter special. I’m just lucky to have been a part of it. There is no doubt in my mind Blockworks continues to grow and dominate data, research, & podcasts. This team SHIPS like no other. @smyyguy, @EffortCapital, @0xMether, @GoldDefi, @fejau_inc and the rest of the team are just getting started. Excited for what’s ahead. On to the next thing. More soon.

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Parts of GTC 2026 reminded me of the GTCs of 5-6 years ago...when Jensen was selling the benefits of ML & GPUs to any industry leader that would listen. Jensen appears to be switching focus from 'the next big AI chip' back to *industry-specific use cases* of AI & GPUs, & even led with the IBM data processing partnership (an ultra broad industry use case). The shift back to industry-specific comms tells me this: Jensen believes AI is *still* underappreciated by most if not all industry leaders, ex-software and the data center. The implication: At the risk of stating the obvious, the bulk of Nvidia's growth is still ahead of us Not bad for the world's largest company
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I believe SaaS incumbents with bundled products & network effects are largely safe AI startup competition, as incumbents can leverage AI to expand their services & deepen their moats. A primary risk to this thesis is the inability of incumbents with high head count to adapt to changing market conditions. Put bluntly: high headcount orgs can't pivot. They can, eventually, but only after careful deliberation, management buy-in, planning, approvals, budgeting, and restructuring. The larger you are & the more frequently you pivot, the more at risk you are for an internal mutiny, burn out, confusion, and organizational chaos. Low-head count, AI-native startups leveraging 100s or 1000s of agents *do have have this coordination problem.* They can pivot as much as they want, as coordination issues & organization inertia are near zero.
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Market commentators routinely frame the current AI buildout in the context of the Carlota Perez framework. Perez argued that the next big general purpose tech always results in a bubble before it delivers real value. This comp is wrong. AI started delivering real value *on day 1*, when ChatGPT became the fasted growing consumer app in the history of technology. Each subsequent step function in capabilities (reasoning, then agents) deepened penetration and impacted new sectors of the economy. This tech revolution is categorically different.
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mattytay
mattytay@mattytay·
The cheapest and most liquid place to exchange SOL is on Solana. That cannot be said of any of other L1 asset and their native blockchains. It’s difficult to fully articulate how bullish this is for @Solana.
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Marisa Tashman Coppel
1/ Big news: @phantom has received first-of-its-kind no action relief from the @CFTC. We can now connect users to regulated derivatives markets and event contracts without registering as an introducing broker. cftc.gov/PressRoom/Pres…
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Personal Update: This is my last week at Blockworks. What @JasonYanowitz & @MikeIppolito_ have built is truly exceptional - high talent density, high work ethic, *great* people. I’m gonna miss this team, & I’m grateful for everyone here that made this chapter special. I’m just lucky to have been a part of it. There is no doubt in my mind Blockworks continues to grow and dominate data, research, & podcasts. This team SHIPS like no other. @smyyguy, @EffortCapital, @0xMether, @GoldDefi, @fejau_inc and the rest of the team are just getting started. Excited for what’s ahead. On to the next thing. More soon.
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“The full model is open-source on Hugging Face. Any cancer research lab with archived biopsy slides, and most of them have thousands, can now run virtual immune profiling without buying a single piece of new equipment.” Golden age
Anish Moonka@AnishA_Moonka

Every time you get a cancer biopsy, the lab makes a tissue slide that costs about $5. It shows the shape of your cells under a microscope, and every cancer patient already has one on file. There’s a much fancier version of that test called multiplex immunofluorescence (basically a protein-level map showing which immune cells are near your tumor and what they’re doing). It costs thousands of dollars per sample, takes specialized equipment most hospitals don’t have, and barely scales. But it’s the kind of data oncologists need to figure out whether immunotherapy will actually work for you. Right now, only about 20 to 40% of cancer patients respond to immunotherapy, and one of the biggest reasons is that doctors can’t easily tell whether a tumor is “hot” (immune cells actively fighting it) or “cold” (immune system ignoring it). Microsoft, Providence Health, and the University of Washington trained an AI to analyze the $5 slide and predict what the expensive test would show across 21 different protein markers. They called it GigaTIME, trained it on 40 million cells in which both the cheap slide and the expensive test coexisted, and then turned it loose on 14,256 real cancer patients across 51 hospitals in 7 US states. The results landed in Cell, one of the most selective journals in biology. The model generated about 300,000 virtual protein maps covering 24 cancer types and 306 subtypes. It found 1,234 real, verified connections between immune cell behavior, genetic mutations, tumor staging, and patient survival that were previously invisible at this scale. When they tested it against a completely separate database of 10,200 cancer patients, the results matched up almost perfectly (0.88 out of 1.0 agreement). Nature Methods named spatial proteomics (mapping where specific proteins sit inside your tissue) its Method of the Year in 2024, and specifically cited GigaTIME in a March 2026 update as a model that “democratizes” this kind of analysis. The full model is open-source on Hugging Face. Any cancer research lab with archived biopsy slides, and most of them have thousands, can now run virtual immune profiling without buying a single piece of new equipment.

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fabiano.sol
fabiano.sol@FabianoSolana·
Solana went from zero to leading dapp revenue for 20 consecutive months
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SolanaFloor
SolanaFloor@SolanaFloor·
🚨JUST IN: Pump.fun introduces automated buybacks for tokenized AI agents. Developers can now launch agent tokens on Pump.fun and set a revenue share where agent earnings in $SOL or $USDC automatically buy back and burn the token, aiming to align agent success with community holders.
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Ryan | Loading... 🇺🇸@ryanconnor·
Oracle throws cold water on the "SaaSpocalyse" narrative The SaaSpocalyse narrative, wrt most large cap incumbents, *assumes they are incapable of using AI to expand their current product suite* This is obviously not the case
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It's interesting that the only overblown market reaction to AI thus far has been to the downside - i.e. the "SaaSpocalypse" - which is the opposite of what we've seen from public markets historically, and the opposite of what bears predicted. (side note: thank you C.C. Wei and Oracle bond investors for putting a temporary cap on public market exuberance) Anything can happen in 10-20 years, especially to incumbents during a business model & platform shift. But on timeframes that we can actually reason about, the TAM of SaaS is exploding, which should drive aggregate tech sector market cap higher. This should benefit both startups *and incumbents*, as addressable areas of the economy are increasing due to LLMs and scaling laws. Startups can tackle the SaaS frontier (e.g. legal and healthtech today), whereas incumbents can solve the long-tail of edge case features that their installed base has been begging for for years & expand their bundle. Incumbents that embrace AI and take pain on margins will be rewarded. We've seen this play out in tech before (i.e. hyperscalers). Take a look at the top 20 holdings in IGV. What do you see? Network effects, bundled products with extraordinarily high switching costs, and, most importantly, business *context*, which, funny enough, AI startups & foundation model companies do not have. Yes, the cost of producing software is dropping dramatically. But writing code is far from the most important part of building a successful SaaS company. Always has been. There are some obvious areas to be bearish on (e.g. ticketing software or single feature calendar products). But I am *not* bearish on the vast majority of incumbent SaaS here, and believe the current re-rating is in many cases an opportunity. And one more positive - any irrational move to the downside extends the economic cycle and pushes the inevitable bubble further into the future. "SaaSpocalypse" headlines & podcasts are welcome.

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Ryan | Loading... 🇺🇸@ryanconnor·
It's interesting that the only overblown market reaction to AI thus far has been to the downside - i.e. the "SaaSpocalypse" - which is the opposite of what we've seen from public markets historically, and the opposite of what bears predicted. (side note: thank you C.C. Wei and Oracle bond investors for putting a temporary cap on public market exuberance) Anything can happen in 10-20 years, especially to incumbents during a business model & platform shift. But on timeframes that we can actually reason about, the TAM of SaaS is exploding, which should drive aggregate tech sector market cap higher. This should benefit both startups *and incumbents*, as addressable areas of the economy are increasing due to LLMs and scaling laws. Startups can tackle the SaaS frontier (e.g. legal and healthtech today), whereas incumbents can solve the long-tail of edge case features that their installed base has been begging for for years & expand their bundle. Incumbents that embrace AI and take pain on margins will be rewarded. We've seen this play out in tech before (i.e. hyperscalers). Take a look at the top 20 holdings in IGV. What do you see? Network effects, bundled products with extraordinarily high switching costs, and, most importantly, business *context*, which, funny enough, AI startups & foundation model companies do not have. Yes, the cost of producing software is dropping dramatically. But writing code is far from the most important part of building a successful SaaS company. Always has been. There are some obvious areas to be bearish on (e.g. ticketing software or single feature calendar products). But I am *not* bearish on the vast majority of incumbent SaaS here, and believe the current re-rating is in many cases an opportunity. And one more positive - any irrational move to the downside extends the economic cycle and pushes the inevitable bubble further into the future. "SaaSpocalypse" headlines & podcasts are welcome.
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DoubleZero
DoubleZero@doublezero·
7/ Every block producing validator can benefit. Until now, the shred economy was only accessible to large validators with high stake weight in favorable Turbine positions. DoubleZero Edge replaces that. Every validator who publishes their leader shreds earns, with traders able to access shreds faster than ever before. Validator's guide to DoubleZero Edge: doublezero.xyz/journal/a-vali…
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