ryanrz.skr

Hardware is Hard is a meme. But the average person in tech doesn’t know WHY it is hard. 1) cash flow: you usually have to pay your suppliers months or even years before you generate profit from sales/lease. 2) forecasting scale: this might be the number one company killer. Order too much of the wrong thing, you are dead. Too little, you don’t hit your growth. Build a bunch of units with a defect? —> firefighting mode for the next year. 3) talent: if you are building in the US, we have very few people that have actually shipped products at scale. You mostly find hobbyists or academic talent. Or people that have spent their career inside a big company and only have a narrow area of expertise. 4) logistics: your supply chain is global and any one vendor failing to ship can break timelines. You are also exposed to geopolitical risk and tariff fluctuation. And once you get your product to your market, you need to pay to store it somewhere and pay to ship it to the customer. 5) fundraising: VC hates hardware in part bc they don’t understand it and bc of the other reasons on this list. At every stage of fundraising you are being judged against software companies that seem further along. Your one time sales revenue is basically discounted to zero, and you are almost entirely judged by recurring revenue (hope you figured out your saas add-on!) 6) integration complexity: once you actually build hardware, you still have to make the software. You have to get embedded teams to talk to web/mobile fe/be teams and there are always competing priorities. 7) regulatory requirements: most products require a variety of certifications, which require lab time, paperwork, and approval delays. 8) product support: difficult reverse logistics to return and service a product. 9) product commoditization: in order to be competitive, in most cases you have to be in China. But that means you are at risk of products being copied and fast followed. Good software, UX, branding, and continuous innovation is your best defense. 10) Distribution: sell online and you need to pay the Facebook/google/amazon/shopify tax to get awareness. Sell in stores, prepare for fickle buyers and slow procurements. Sell to enterprise, expect egregious payment terms. Operate the hardware yourself, no available capex financing. Hardware is hard, but if you can overcome all of this, you have a competitive advantage and almost no AI disruption risk.

@ChrisJBakke Im glad im old. No 50 under 50 jinx.

The police, FBI, and SEC waking up to learn that Forbes just published their 2026 30 Under 30 list:

@nikitabier @chooserich I think that is the penalty from the FTC after the 10th violation.

@chooserich Since you don’t label your posts, would you mind getting this tattoo?

$500k Polymarket chain on my neck, no wife or kids, and just turned 44. Does life get any better than this?!

This is absolutely insane! …will stop working as a hook soon because everyone is abusing it.

@yhdistyminen @JimMcMurtry01 Free the buildings!

@JimMcMurtry01 I agree, the ability to build supertalls with no parking should be extended not just to the Squamish Nation but to all peoples

The wealthy 1500-member Musqueam tribe, which claims all of Vancouver, is building 11 towers (some 56 stories) on an 11.7-acre waterfront site. This density breaks all the rules, but when you’re a court-supported racial oligarchy, you can do anything.

There is a paradox with “top tier” founders. They have the most options and the highest opportunity cost for their time. They can make $300k+ in big tech. They can raise another seed round if this startup fails. They constantly get recruited by CEOs at other hot startups. So what happens in year 2 or 3 when they haven’t found pmf and the job stops being fun? That acquihire starts looking pretty good. Or just shut it down, return a bit of capital, and start something fresh. I’ve seen this pattern a lot. Personally I prefer founders on a mission. Ones with grit fighting with their back against a wall.

@DanReese21 While I grew up in this region and would love if this is true, cheap solar / nuclear powering desal prob means continued scaling near the coasts.

What’s your best multi-generational (50-100 yr) “obvious in hindsight” investment thesis? Mine: land in the Great Lakes region (within proximity of tier 1 & 2 population centers) 2 reasons why: 1) land is scarce 2) fresh water is the most important natural resource for human survival and civilization Pretty simple. The Great Lakes contain 84% of North America’s (surface) fresh water. Humans are incredibly resourceful, so places w/o fresh water will continue to find innovative solutions. However, as decades pass, these solutions will feel the increasing weight of constraint as population and consumption continually grow. Then at some point, growth will become easier in places w near unlimited access to fresh water. To be clear, I’m NOT saying everyone will leave places w/o easy access to fresh water. I just think we’ll eventually hit a point where growth slowly shifts to areas w less constraints. Not to mention the Great Lakes region doesn’t have wildfires, hurricanes, etc. Insuring areas w significant natural disaster risk will be another multi-generational thing to watch. Land in some other regions will end up being a great investment too, but I think the Great Lakes will be the ultimate winner (esp given how low prices are today). Some circles on the map will do better than others of course, but that’s a separate debate. Think I’m wrong? We’ll all be dead so it won’t matter. Our Great Grandkids can dunk on each other.

@IanRountree I was an angel in that too….

Sneaky big market. We invested in a competitor that Merck Ag acquired in an all-cash deal that returned ~10% of the first Cantos fund.

@JoePostingg x.com/ryanrz/status/…

If you get deep enough into TikTok your feed becomes mostly Chinese commodity wholesalers

It’s pretty crazy that in 2026, there is still significant arbitrage in being able to navigate a Chinese supply chain to build products for global markets. I thought the gap would’ve closed by now, but it’s nearly the same as 15 years ago.

@lunarlabor @maxdubler Agree!

@Ryanrz @maxdubler That’s a fair point, I just don’t think it should take a protected class to get things built in this city

The backstory here is that the Squamish people of what is now Vancouver were illegally dispossessed of this land a century ago. They sued, got their land back, and used their sovereignty to ignore local zoning rules and build 6,000 new homes over the objections of nearby NIMBYs.

@lunarlabor @maxdubler It’s almost as if removing regulation allowed for the property owner to sell for the highest and best use of their land. Curious.

@Ryanrz @maxdubler That’s simply not true, they would be building a casino there if someone offered them a bigger cheque. I’m happy things are getting built but the Squamish are just a means to an end

@sns Super cool!

Your .sol, now with a home on the web. Introducing {yourname}.sol.site. Type it into any browser, on any device, and it just works. Zero extensions needed. Beta is open now for the first 100 VIPs ↓

a piping engineer in houston shipping production software in 8 weeks with zero prior coding experience while most YC startups with 5 engineers cant ship in 12. the difference is he has 20 years of knowing exactly what the industry needs and zero time wasted on architecture debates. this is the future of vertical software - built by domain experts, powered by inference APIs, and absolutely terrifying for every generic SaaS company charging $50k/year for features a tradesman built in a weekend @toddsaunders

@bznotes We don’t want a hot war with China. Venezuela, Iran, Cuba all much easier foes.

This is the real war. But we kept getting dragged into other’s conflicts where we lose our men and women in uniform.

@Ajchatham Decent chance it never ships.

There will be 250,000 Tesla and Waymo on the road by the time this car ships

@lunarlabor @maxdubler They are still driving it but obviously they are partnering with outside capital and expertise. This wouldn’t be happening if the Squamish didn’t fight for it.

@maxdubler I’m all for getting around bureaucracy but framing this as the Squamish getting things done is disingenuous

@maxdubler Giga-based

This is the best piece I've read about the project: macleans.ca/society/senakw…

@maxdubler Two huge reservations surround Phoenix metro. Need some Squamish consultants.

@UrbanCourtyard You too! I love courtyard urbanism.

@Ryanrz Thanks for your contribution to this important work

This is fantastic, and I would like to see pocket neighborhoods like this in every city … along with new courtyard block neighborhoods . Americans deserve nice cities with a variety of great neighborhood options