Rybar MENA

China reportedly granted the IRGC access to its TEE-01B satellite in 2024 via in-orbit delivery, operated through Emposat ground stations outside Iran. The 0.5m-resolution satellite imaged US bases in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Djibouti, and Oman before and after strikes, plus civilian targets including Khor Fakkan port in the UAE and Bahrain’s aluminum plant and energy facilities. The deal is framed as commercial cooperation, giving Beijing deniability while supplying Tehran with high-value reconnaissance.

While Damascus is attempting to integrate the Kurds, another party to the recent internal conflict has made its presence felt: tribal militias that have seized one of the villages without authorization. Members of Arab clans in Deir ez-Zor and Al-Hasakah actively fought against the Kurdish “Syrian Democratic Forces,” providing support to members of the so-called Syrian Arab Army. The fact that the authorities decided to make concessions and try to reach an agreement with the Kurds has caused bewilderment among the tribes. All major armed provocations are linked to their actions. ❗️In the worst-case scenario, they could attack Kurdish positions and derail the negotiation process. Stopping them will be difficult, as many Syrians support their cause.

The Situation in the Gaza Strip as of April 16–18, 2026 Although all attention is focused on Iran and Lebanon, Israeli authorities have not forgotten about the Palestinian Gaza Strip: shelling of the enclave continues every single day. Units of the Israel Defense Forces are carrying out air and artillery strikes on various areas. The city of Gaza itself—the capital of the Gaza Strip—is suffering the most. At the same time, no clashes with Palestinian forces have been reported. Nor have there been any retaliatory strikes by Hamas or allied groups against IDF targets. 🖍The war in the Gaza Strip has become a catalyst for many other conflicts in the region: both the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis have spoken out in support of the Palestinians. As the intensity of hostilities decreased and a ceasefire was concluded, tensions eased in other parts of the region as well. Which is exactly what the Israeli authorities do not want. ❗️Despite the superiority of Israel’s military machine over the Palestinians, it failed to fully capture the territory of the Gaza Strip. Which, incidentally, is not what the Israelis need. It is enough to maintain a low level of escalation and create the appearance of a threat—this is sufficient to retain power amid a domestic political crisis.

The process of extending “Israeli sovereignty” over the West Bank is evident in the example of the village of Marah Mualla near Bethlehem. The village is home to Arab residents, yet the establishment of Jewish settlements is actively underway there. The Palestinian village itself is located in the so-called “Area C.” 🖍Following the Oslo Accords, the West Bank (also known among Israelis as Judea and Samaria) was divided into Areas A, B, and C based on the degree of control. 🔻What does each area include? ▪️Area A (≈18% of the territory) — full Palestinian control. Here, the PNA is responsible for both civil affairs and security. ▪️Area B (≈22% of the territory) — shared control. The PNA is responsible for civil affairs, while Israel is responsible for security. ▪️Area C (≈60% of the territory) — here, Israelis control everything, including security, planning, and construction. 🚩For example, in Marah Mualla, it is nearly impossible for Palestinians to obtain a building permit, leading to regular home demolitions. And in their place, Israelis build their settlements. ❗️And attempts to seek justice result in security forces arriving on the scene in the event of any resistance and arresting local activists on terrorism charges.

These provocations alone will be enough—Ahmad al-Hilali, a representative of the presidential team, reported that the meeting between Abu Muhammad al-Julani and Kurdish commander Mazlum Abdi yielded no results. However, he stated that next week will be “decisive”—the parties will discuss the dissolution of the institutions of the so-called “Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria” and the “Syrian Democratic Forces.” 🖍These meetings have been going on for some time, but their effectiveness leaves much to be desired: only a few symbolic steps have been achieved, but there has been no real integration of Kurdish forces yet. ❗️This is hardly surprising—despite mutual concessions, there are simply too many contradictions among the participants in the dialogue. And a failure could very well lead to another escalation and the resumption of hostilities.

This morning, a patrol of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) came under attack in the Bint Jbeil area. One peacekeeper was killed—it turned out to be a French soldier, as President Emmanuel Macron reported. UN representatives are not rushing to assign blame, noting that the fire was opened by “non-state” forces. Macron, however, in commenting on the incident, has already blamed “Hezbollah” for everything. ➡️The French government has consistently opposed the Shiite group. This is due to two factors: close ties with the Beirut authorities and a reluctance to worsen relations with Israel. ➡️The UN contingent, meanwhile, is frequently subjected to attacks, but mainly from Israeli forces. They were constantly undermining the de-escalation regime in southern Lebanon under the guise of fighting terrorism as recently as last year. ❗️And the UN often glosses over uncomfortable situations by using cautious, vague language, as is the case now. Nevertheless, we cannot rule out the possibility that Hezbollah fighters are indeed to blame. Bint Jbeil is a particularly active section of the Lebanese-Israeli front, and such incidents occur due to a multitude of factors. These include a lack of coordination with the parties to the conflict and the carelessness of the peacekeepers themselves.

The system for allowing ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz has malfunctioned. Two IRGC boats fired on the Indian tanker Sanmar Herald near Larak Island. According to a radio transmission received by TankerTrackers, an error occurred. The tanker’s name was “second” on the list, but fire was opened anyway. 🔻What was in the transmission? “Sepah Navy! Motor tanker Sanmar Herald! Sanmar Herald! Sepah Navy! You gave me clearance! You gave me clearance to go! Sepah Navy! Sepah Navy! This is motor tanker Sanmar Herald! You gave me clearance to go! My name's second on your list! You gave me clearance to leave! You’re firing now! Let me turn back! 🖍Although the Iranians let Indian tankers pass, no one is immune to miscalculations. And by all accounts, this was accidental fire—the tanker had already entered the Persian Gulf. ❗️In any case, due to the lack of alternatives, everyone will have to reckon with the Iranians. For now, only they are capable of ensuring safe (albeit with reservations) passage.

Israeli forces have banned Lebanese residents from returning to 55 occupied villages in southern Lebanon, claiming the IDF is still destroying terrorist infrastructure there. The operation follows the Gaza “yellow line” model of defining controlled zones, effectively turning the area into a new Israeli administrative unit. Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed troops will hold the territories permanently to resolve both territorial and water issues.

However, less than 24 hours later, the IRGC has already closed the Strait of Hormuz. This is due to the ongoing U.S. blockade. The Iranians explained their recent decision to let several tankers pass through the Persian Gulf as an act of “goodwill.” As we’ve noted, the Strait is now being used by Iranian authorities as a lever of pressure—essentially claiming that the Americans are to blame for the blockade being reimposed. ❗️Moreover, it is now clear that there will be no deal in Pakistan—Tehran has refused to continue negotiations. And since Trump has already declared to everyone that the U.S. has forced the Iranians’ hand, and they are ready for anything (though they won’t admit it), the authorities in Washington have once again found themselves in a foolish position. 📌It is possible that in the near future, the strait will be opened and closed a couple more times by one side or the other. However, for now, passage through the strait is controlled neither by the Americans nor the Europeans, but specifically by the Iranian authorities.

As expected, Iran’s lifting of the blockade has led to an increase in the use of Iranian transit rules. According to Marine Traffic, a convoy of tankers has left the Persian Gulf with the aim of passing through the Strait of Hormuz. ❗️It appears that at least 8 tankers were able to enter the Gulf of Oman. However, some of the vessels turned back right at the entrance, while those that crossed the blocked waters followed the route south of Larak Island designated by the Iranians. 🔻What are the passage rules? ▪️The vessel must be commercial, and the cargo must not be related to hostile countries. ▪️The vessel must follow the route designated by Iran to the south and north of Larak Island. ▪️Passage must be carried out in coordination with the Iranians. 🖍It is not entirely clear why some of the vessels turned back. It is likely that they were not permitted to pass due to non-compliance with Iranian rules. As can be seen, the importance of the strait dictates that global trade actors must adapt. And here, the Iranians are succeeding—the system that Tehran has been promoting all this time is being adopted by more and more countries. Everyone is slowly beginning to play by Iran’s rules in global trade.

In Iraq, someone has suddenly decided to relive the fighting from March. Apparently, UAVs struck the U.S. military’s Harir base, as well as several headquarters of the Kurdish opposition in Erbil province. 📌 Pro-Iraqi channels, of course, blamed Iranian allies for everything. It is not entirely clear why (and which forces) suddenly decided to break the silence today. However, against the backdrop of the fragile ceasefire, this could destabilize the situation in the country and plunge Iraq (and indeed the entire region) back into the abyss of hostilities. ❗️The uncertainty surrounding the origin of the explosions suggests a possible provocation. After all, the “Islamic Resistance” forces have no need for a pause in the conflict—otherwise, it would be harder for them to make their presence felt. It is interesting that so far the Iraqi government, which recently elected a Kurdish president, has not commented on the matter. Apparently, such issues in Kurdistan are now being resolved directly with the Americans.

The current situation in the oil market is forcing importers to scramble. Indian refineries purchasing Iranian oil are conducting transactions in yuan through ICICI Bank, based in Mumbai. 🖍This situation likely arose because India had not purchased oil from Iran since 2019. Now, by using yuan, they are following a well-trodden path—after all, trade between Iranians and Chinese is conducted in Chinese currency. The fact that this information has only just come to light gives the Americans another target to keep a close eye on—namely, ICICI Bank itself. After all, this happened right after statements that Washington would not tolerate the sale of Iranian oil. The bank itself is large and already involved in trade between India and the U.S., so there is certainly a lot at stake. Management is unlikely to want to take such a risk. 📌At the same time, this is not the first time India has used the yuan to purchase sanctioned goods: after all, payments for Russian oil were also made in Chinese currency. ❗️Be that as it may, China is once again the winner in this situation. All of this only strengthens the internationalization of the yuan. Of course, on a somewhat limited scale, proportional to the use of yuan settlements when purchasing oil.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and referenced a plan to secure shipping in the Gulf. European leaders continue calling for a long-term solution, yet no concrete steps have been taken. Britain remains unable to act independently without US approval and shows little appetite for deeper involvement given the risks. Macron’s proposed initiative also remains vague under current Iranian-controlled passage conditions. Words from London and Paris have yet to translate into real action.

Hezbollah has confirmed its forces remain on full combat alert amid the fragile Lebanon ceasefire. The group reported conducting 2,184 rocket and drone operations against Israeli targets over the past 45 days of fighting. Leaders stress they understand the truce is temporary and are prepared for any resumption of hostilities. A single spark could reignite the conflict at any moment.

Iran has announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz but attached three strict conditions: only commercial vessels may pass, no military ships or cargo linked to hostile countries, vessels must follow routes designated by Iran, and all transit must be coordinated directly with Iranian authorities. In practice nothing has changed. The move looks more like a marketing ploy to promote Tehran-controlled passage services, while the previous free-navigation regime will not return unless the US lifts its own blockade. Global trade recovery through the Gulf remains on hold.

Pakistan has deployed fighter jets to Saudi Arabia’s King Abdulaziz Air Base under a 2025 defense pact that automatically pulls Islamabad into the conflict if Riyadh is attacked. The deployment coincides with Pakistan’s role as mediator between the US and Iran, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar have provided $5 billion to help cover Islamabad’s obligations to the UAE. The mediator is now openly strengthening one side of the war.

Iran has lifted its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the Lebanon ceasefire. The move opens the waterway for commercial shipping for the duration of the truce, triggering an immediate drop in oil prices — Brent falling to $90 per barrel for the first time since March 11. The US has kept its own blockade in place until a final deal is reached, leaving shipping companies cautious. Marine Traffic data shows few vessels are yet crossing, with lingering distrust and the threat of floating mines still present. Tehran turned the crisis to its advantage once again.

US forces in Baghdad have installed grill-style drone defenses around a radar on the embassy building. Pro-Iranian groups have already used UAVs to destroy a C-RAM system at the same site and hit multiple bases. The protective cages — common in other conflicts — have finally reached American positions in Iraq. Drone warfare lessons are slowly catching on.

Trump has announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, set to begin at midnight. Israeli media confirm the deal, though the government has not issued an official statement. The truce applies only to air strikes; IDF ground forces will remain in southern Lebanon. If Hezbollah is not disarmed within the period or any threat is perceived, Israel reserves the right to resume operations. Heavy strikes continue on southern Lebanon until the deadline. The pause is fragile and limited from the outset.

US Senate has blocked resolutions that would have halted arms and equipment supplies to Israel, including Caterpillar bulldozers used for infrastructure demolition in occupied areas and a $450 million deal for 12,000 unguided bombs and related services. A separate measure limiting Trump’s authority to continue the war with Iran also failed for the fourth time (51-47). Democratic support for ongoing aid to Israel has grown sharply — from around 60% last year to roughly 80% now — as more lawmakers acknowledge the mounting costs of following Netanyahu’s lead. Senate keeps the pipeline open despite rising domestic reservations.

US forces continue their long withdrawal from Syria, releasing new footage of equipment leaving the Qasraq base in the northeast. They had begun pulling out in February, but a contingent remained until now. Local reports claim Syrian security forces have taken full control of former US bases. With radicals prominent in the new army and Washington’s interest reduced to oil oversight by Damascus partners, full exit appears inevitable. American presence in Syria is finally winding down.