
sandra longinotti
18.3K posts

sandra longinotti
@s_longinotti
Sandra Longinotti #food & #wine writer since 1992 | Food & Wine Journalist, Blogger, Author, Food Stylist, Consultant | ✍️ on my #Blog and RSI Food


Dice che la Ue non indicherà più che certi cibi sono OGM perché altrimenti i consumatori potrebbero essere indotti a non comprarli. Prossimo voto al Parlamento UE. E se chiedessimo agli europarlamentari italiani di dirci qui cosa intendono votare?










MERCOSUR: 22 tonnellate di carne non idonea al consumo sequestrate in Cina Mentre la presidente della Commissione europea, Ursula von der Leyen, sigla l'applicazione provvisoria dell'accordo commerciale UE-Mercosur a partire dal 1° maggio 2026, un'informazione passata quasi inosservata dovrebbe allertare anche i più piccoli comuni di La Réunion: la Cina ha appena respinto 22 tonnellate di carne bovina argentina a causa della presenza di cloramfenicolo, un antibiotico vietato per il consumo umano da trent'anni. temoignages.re/politique/sant… la_nouvelle_france

When you start realizing what's allowed to be added to our food that's banned in Europe and other places, it becomes crystal clear that our food is killing us by design. No one can convince me that there's no connection between the food industry and Big Pharma. Do you agree?

Gli scienziati di tutto il mondo stanno ora lanciando l'allarme su un modello preoccupante: le api da miele sembrano abbandonare i loro alveari quando esposte a livelli elevati di radiazioni elettromagnetiche provenienti dalle torri di telefonia mobile 5G. twitter.com/TheWyteRabbit1…





JUST IN: The Strait of Hormuz blocks the fertiliser from shipping. China just blocked it from being replaced. Beijing has instructed exporters to suspend overseas shipments of nitrogen and potassium fertiliser blends. Urea. NPK mixes. The molecules that American, Indian, Bangladeshi, and African farmers need to plant are now gated at two chokepoints simultaneously: a 21-mile waterway controlled by provincial commanders with sealed radio orders, and a government directive issued from Zhongnanhai that requires no radio at all. One third of global seaborne fertiliser trade transits Hormuz. China is the world’s largest fertiliser producer. When the strait closed and China suspended exports in the same month, the global food system lost its primary supply route and its primary alternative supplier at the same time. There is no third source at this scale. There is no backup to the backup. Urea has surged roughly 40 percent since the war began. CBOT March futures settled at 610.50. The peak at New Orleans touched $683. Those prices were set by the Hormuz blockade alone. China’s ban adds a second floor underneath them. Even if the strait reopened tomorrow, Chinese urea would not flow until Beijing lifts the directive. Even if Beijing lifted the directive, the strait would still need to reopen, insurance to normalise, and vessels to be available. The two gates operate independently. Both must open for the molecule to move. China’s logic is transparent. Hormuz disrupted global supply. Prices surged. Chinese domestic farmers face the same planting windows as everyone else. Beijing chose to protect its own agriculture by hoarding the molecule the rest of the world needs. This is the same country that is simultaneously drawing commercial crude reserves at a million barrels per day, running military exercises near Taiwan, receiving discounted Iranian oil through the permissioned strait, and restricting the phosphate exports it suspended months ago. Every decision serves one objective: China first. The rest of the world absorbs the shortage. The American farmer is now squeezed from two directions. The Gulf urea he used to buy cannot transit the strait. The Chinese urea that could have replaced it is embargoed by Beijing. Domestic US production covers roughly 75 percent of normal needs, but normal needs assumed Gulf and Chinese imports filling the gap. The gap is now unfillable on any timeline that matters for spring planting. USDA projects corn falling to 94 million acres. Soybeans rising to 85 million. The RFS mandate consumes 43 percent of a shrinking corn crop. The cattle herd sits at 86.2 million, a 75-year low. The protein cascade runs from corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the grocery shelf. China’s ban did not create that cascade. The Hormuz blockade created it. China’s ban removed the last exit ramp. Oman crude at $154. Brent at $102. WTI at $93. Gold at $5,000. The Fed holding at 3.50 to 3.75 with PCE revised to 2.7. Trump telling Israel to stop hitting gas fields. Iran threatening to burn the Gulf to ashes. Four countries’ energy infrastructure offline. And now the world’s largest fertiliser producer has locked its warehouse and told every farmer on Earth that the key is in Beijing, not for sale, and not available until further notice. Two gates. One molecule. No alternative. The calendar closes in four weeks. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…






BREAKING: The world spent fifty years and hundreds of billions of dollars building Strategic Petroleum Reserves so that no geopolitical shock could starve civilization of energy. Nobody built the equivalent for fertilizer. That is the most expensive oversight in the history of modern statecraft, and you are about to pay for it at the grocery store. The Strait of Hormuz does not merely carry 20% of global oil. UNCTAD estimates roughly one-third of all seaborne fertilizer trade passes through it. The Fertilizer Institute estimates that conflict-exposed exporters account for nearly 49% of global urea exports and nearly half of global sulfur trade. Since February 28, daily ship transits have collapsed by 97%. Here is what almost nobody understands about why this is not "just another commodity spike." It was not the missiles that closed the strait. It was the insurance. Multiple P&I clubs cancelled war-risk extensions for the Gulf after 26 months of Red Sea losses had already depleted their Solvency II capital buffers. War-risk premiums surged from 0.25% to as high as 5% of hull value per transit. A urea cargo cannot absorb that. The economics of fertilizer shipping through Hormuz became impossible before a single mine needed to detonate. The Trump administration announced a $20 billion sovereign-backed reinsurance facility with Chubb as lead underwriter. There is no confirmed public evidence that a single fertilizer vessel has used it. Insurance pays for financial loss. It does not intercept anti-ship missiles. Physical security remains the binding constraint, and the US Navy confirmed on March 12 it is "not ready" for commercial escorts. Now here is the part that should terrify every allocator on Earth. Agriculture runs on biological deadlines. Corn Belt farmers need nitrogen applied by mid-April. Indian Kharif season prep starts in May. Australian winter crop needs urea by June. These are not financial deadlines that reprice. They are photosynthetic deadlines that, once missed, produce irreversible yield loss. A diplomatic breakthrough on April 15 does not help a farmer who needed fertilizer on April 1. And the yield math is nonlinear. Wall Street models fertilizer-to-output as proportional. It is not. The response is quadratic. In developed systems that over-apply nitrogen, a 15% reduction costs 2-5% of yield. In the Global South where farmers already under-apply, the same reduction pushes crops off a biophysical cliff. Sri Lanka proved this in 2021 when a sudden fertilizer ban collapsed rice production 40% in a single season and brought down the government. The market is pricing a 45-day disruption. The insurance architecture says 120 days minimum. Even after a hypothetical ceasefire, Solvency II capital rebuild, reinsurance treaty renegotiation, and vessel re-underwriting take months. The Red Sea precedent: 26 months after Houthi attacks began, war-risk premiums never returned to pre-crisis levels. Both sides are rejecting negotiations. Trump rebuffed ceasefire mediation March 14. Iran's foreign minister on March 15: "We never asked for a ceasefire." Meanwhile: 51% of US corn areas in drought. El Nino favored by June at 62% probability. Skymet assigns 60% chance of below-normal Indian monsoon. Bangladesh has shut five of six urea factories. India formally asked China for urea on March 12. Egypt faces $28 billion in debt repayments while importing 12.7 million tonnes of wheat. WFP identifies 318 million people already at crisis-level hunger. The world stockpiled oil but forgot to stockpile the molecules that produce half its food. The clock is the position. Full analysis in the link! open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…





