sandeep

SPY will crash 10%-20% after May 15, 2026 from $720+ Why? Since 1930, SPY crashes 16% within 6 months of a new FOMC chairperson coming in. 3 reasons for this sell off: 1. Every new chair needs to prove they're serious rates stay high or go higher. 2. Kevin Warsh wants to shrink the Fed's $6.7T balance sheet that's liquidity leaving markets 3. SPY at 720+ with a CAPE ratio of 39 same level as the dot-com peak. The last time a new chair walked in at record highs? 1987. Black Monday followed 6 weeks later. You've been warned.

I’ve been waiting last few months for signs that 3.5 year cycle has topped. We’ve been buyers of dips as models were bullish. It has changed in Feb when I posted that I went mostly cash and now all models I track are now on a weekly sell signal / bear regime. -The last time we had a similar set up was Dec 2021 and we went defensive before the bear market which positioned us well to be buyers of stocks at bargain prices later in 2022. Now current 3.5Y cycle is peaking/rolling over - time to pay attention. -I don’t like playing Monday morning quarterback so I try to give you my actionable primary roadmap a few months out and adjust along the way based on cycles, models, technicals etc. Saying something was obvious after the fact doesn’t help anyone. -Below is my experimental $SPX composite leading indicator which I’ve been working on for several years combining various cross-asset signals. Not meant to perfectly time every micro move but can be used as a confluence for larger trend changes -In Dec ‘25 I saw upside headfake move (UTAD in Wyckoff terms) in Q1 2026 and then rollover; now with more data coming in it’s suggesting a bigger decline in Mar-Apr - in line cycles/ models / TA - $SPX is still only -3.4% below ATH so real correction hasn’t even started. When talking heads on CNBC start panicking it will be too late. Not trying to fear monger, just calling it what models are showing. Capital preservation is key. -I take time out of my weekend to post this to open people’s eyes to a potential significant downside in the market and consider contingency plans. If you find it helpful and want to get more updates - please retweet.

This graph will break the brain of this fake system that rewards grifters and tries to punish success unless it is obscenely outlier-ish. The brain breaks further when you realize the Unknown Dot should be further right and down. How did Indian Americans with just 2 suitcases and $120 in their pockets in just 60 years attain the highest median income, wealthiest minority group, while maintaining the lowest crime rate. They also pulled their weight by contributing 6.5% to GDP while only being 1.2% of the population! That’s a 442% contribution over their population share, the highest as well. If you are against this community, then you are against every other group on this graph. Yes, you are AGAINST EVERY SINGLE AMERICAN! You are against every meaningful metric of achievement that can be tracked. And sadly enough, you might be a communist.

Predictions for 2026: 1. Indices rise into year end and Q1 2026. ES tops out above 7000, let's say 7250-7300 2. 2026 will be the year of volatility. Expect significant whipsaws in price throughout the year. On the fence whether we end the year at new highs 3. ES at c.4500 would be a generational buying opportunity 4. Silver particularly, and gold will outperform, although they'll likely experience a significant dip first. 5. Fed reintroduces yield curve control, inflation bottoms around 3%, and sharply rises, resulting in a sticky 5-6%. Fed abandons 2% target 6. Bitcoin bottoms around 40-45k, likely generational buying opportunity 7. Anger in the US accelerates. Job market for the middle class decimated. Hard trades will outperform 8. Housing market freezes (don't think house prices crash), no one moves due to mortgage rates 9. Shitcoins and meme coins experience periodic gambling driven spurts, but track towards 0 10. Copper and energy will be standout performers 11. FX traders discover that a weak DXY doesn't always mean a rally in risk assets 12. Majority of AI adjacent startups are decimated. Massive AI consolidation. Google owns the field. OpenAI's only chance of survival is government bail out. VC money disappears 13. Re-emergence of the pension crisis 14. Mobility within the US hits record lows 15. Most people will be really fucking miserable. Expect the timeline to be insufferable.