Saurabh Agarwal

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Saurabh Agarwal

Saurabh Agarwal

@saur_agar7

On a learning curve,sharing thoughts on the way.

Kolkata Katılım Temmuz 2015
12 Takip Edilen337 Takipçiler
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Saurabh Agarwal
Saurabh Agarwal@saur_agar7·
There is a thing called big becomes bigger by capturing Market share continuously from peers. Few Examples 1) V2 Retail 2)Sky Gold 3)Kalyan 4)Polycab 5)Ather Energy 7)Anand Rathi 8) Smartworks 9) Groww etc.. This quarter was just a continuation of these aspects.
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Shreenidhi P
Shreenidhi P@nid_rockz·
Good #Q4FY26-30/5/26 post 8pm End of #Q4FY26 A healthy,big earnings season for midcaps, Smallcaps, microcaps and SME companies Probably,last set of results coverage for #Q4FY26 MSP Steel and Power Ltd #MSPSteel Solid Q4FY26 with big margin expansion QoQ and YoY Rev at 816cr vs 760cr, Q3 at 639vr PBT at 48cr vs 10cr, Q3 at 8cr PAT at 85cr vs -34cr, Q3 at 5cr FY26 PBT at 78cr vs 2.5cr OCF at 148cr vs 189cr Power and Instrumentation Gujarat #PIGL 160bps margin expansion Rev⏫6% at 58cr⏫21% QoQ EBITDA at 6.4cr⏫25% YoY ⏫8% QoQ PAT at 4cr ⏫40% YoY,⏫10% QoQ PTC Industries #PTCInds Delivers a robust Q4FY26 Good QoQ and YoY uptick across all parameters Rev at 225cr vs 122cr, Q3 at 156cr PBT at 72cr vs 32cr, Q3 at 25cr PAT at 60cr vs 25cr, Q3 at 18cr OCF at -69cr vs 14cr BR Goyal Infra #BRGoyal Solid H2FY26 Good growth vs H1FY26 and H2FY25 Rev at 478cr vs 296cr, H1 at 342cr PBT at 41cr vs 26cr, H1 at 22cr PAT at 29cr vs 19cr, H1 at 16cr FY26 PBT at 63cr vs 34cr FY26 PAT at 45cr vs 25cr OCF at 2cr vs -85cr Sahana Systems #Sahana Solid H2FY26 with big uptick vs H1FY26 and H2FY25 Highest ever set Rev at 216cr vs 115cr, H1 at 115cr PBT at 61cr vs 37cr, H1 at 38cr PAT at 47cr s 25cr, H1 at 28cr FY26 PBT at 98cr vs 56cr FY26 PAT at 75cr vs 39cr OCF at 41cr vs -48cr Tenneco Clean Air #Tenneco Rev at 1552cr vs 1326cr, Q3 at 1286cr PBT at 231cr vs 192cr, Q3 at 192cr OCF at 1429cr vs 562cr #CoastalCorp Good Q4FY26 Rev at 325cr vs 157cr, Q3 at 303cr Other income at 12cr vs 4cr PBT at 13cr vs 0.04cr, Q3 at 7cr PAT at 10cr.l vs loss, Q3 at 7cr OCF at -20cr vs 5cr #AMICForging Good H2FY26 and FY26 Last year had 20cr other income which isn't there this time Rev at 75cr vs 67cr in H1 PBT at 23cr vs 17cr in H1 PAT at 16cr vs 12cr in H1 FY26 PBT at 39cr vs 25cr OCF at 9cr vs 6cr Shri Venkatesh Refineries #SVRL Solid H2FY26 with big growth vs H1FY26 and H2FY25 Rev at 821cr vs 393cr, H1 at 556cr PBT at 33cr vs 15cr, H1 at 9cr PAT at 24cr vs 11cr, H1 at 14cr OCF at -70cr vs 1cr Confidence Petroleum #ConfiPet Rev at 1215cr vs 925cr, Q3 at 1393cr PBT at 42cr vs 33cr, Q3 at 27cr PAT at 34cr vs 27cr, Q3 at 21cr OCF at 400cr vs 5cr #OneGlobal Good QoQ and YoY uptick across all parameters Rev at 133cr vs 55cr, Q3 at 33cr PBT at 24cr vs 14cr, Q3 at 5cr PAT at 18cr vs 11cr, Q3 at 3cr OCF at 3cr vs 14cr #BlueCloud Blue Cloud Softtech Rev at 277cr vs 184cr, Q3 at 265cr PBT at 23cr vs 16cr, Q3 at 25cr OCF at 208cr vs -13cr #Transteel Rev at 61cr vs 54cr, H1 at 78cr PBT at 16cr vs 11cr, H1 at 13cr OCF at -8cr vs 8cr #SavyInfra Rev at 422cr vs 185cr, H1 at 216cr PBT at 34cr vs 23cr, H1 at 25cr PAT at 24cr vs 13cr, H1 at 18cr OCF at -51cr vs -14cr #ShrinbasPradhan Rev at 34cr vs 24cr, Q3 at 27cr PBT at 4.5cr vs 3cr, H1 at 3.5cr OCF at -7cr vs 1cr #Macobs Rev at 22cr vs 7cr, H1 at 19cr PBT at 2.2cr vs 1cr, H1 at 1.9cr OCF at 0.8cr vs -12cr Vaswani Industries #Vaswani Good Q4FY26,but FY26 sees a sharp degrowth vs FY25 Rev at 143cr vs 115cr, Q3 at 124cr PBT at 10cr vs 6.6cr, Q3 at loss PAT at 5.3cr vs 2cr, Q3 at loss OCF at 18cr vs 34cr #MotherNutriFoods Solid H2FY26 Big growth vs H1FY26 and H2FY25 Rev at 73cr vs 48cr, H1 at 50cr PBT at 7.6cr vs 2.5cr, H1 at 6.5cr PAT at 6.3cr vs 1.1cr, H1 at 5.3cr OCF at -45cr vs -3cr #DeepPolymers Rev at 27cr vs 23cr, Q3 at 21cr Other income at 2.3cr vs 0.6cr PBT at 4cr vs 1cr, Q3 at 1cr OCF at 12cr vs 20cr #AtenPaper Rev at 120cr vs 81cr, H1 at 67cr PBT at 7cr vs 4cr, H1 at 3cr PAT at 5cr vs 3cr, H1 at 2cr OCF at -25cr vs 5cr #AffordableRobotics Rev down sharply at 51cr vs 84cr PBT at 7.3cr vs 4.5cr, Q3 at 1.4cr OCF at 7cr vs -6cr Decent: #ZealGlobal #UnilexColors #SubaHotels
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Saurabh Agarwal
Saurabh Agarwal@saur_agar7·
Two dynamics plays around in any sector. 1)Percieved headwinds-->Which may detoriate future performance. 2)Yet continued execution from managemnt across different businessess in the same sector. How how does the narrative change. Stage 1-->Fear leading to severe downgrades and execution risks factors in.Risk Reports emerge. Stage 2-->Continued Earning momentum,questions stage 1 every QoQ. Stage 3-->Fear subsides,soon narratives change from fear to slight chnage to normalcy. Stage 4-->Newer reports,justifying the performance and slowly Stage 1 threats becomes an opportunity. Stage 5-->Ultimately earnings and performance wins over all above noise. One such sector is Flex Space in India. Allmost all leading players grew at >25% CAGR in last year,with better ROCE,Margins improvement. There are signs of narrative changing from Stage 1 to Stage 2. Slowly imo we will move to other stages,lets see where this unfolds. One such is recently publised by Redseer "AI and the Future of Flexible Workspaces",one can read and get an idea where things are moving.Same is the narrative across the sector. I will be dscussing this sector in detail soon. Can u name few more such sectors??
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Saurabh Agarwal
Saurabh Agarwal@saur_agar7·
If someone is interested to see how Jwellery Sector actually works one can directly refer to B2B manufacturers rather than B2C retailers. Retailers command higher TAM but the real process lies with Manufacturers. Now among the manufacturers the shift of Unorganised to Organised is much more pronounced as they are coming from a smaller base. Thus the scope for formalisation is tremendous,not adding TAM from export markets. Also in case of rising gold prices organised players are much more likely to win. Jewellery Sector is actually in a continuous bull run for the past 2-3 decades,which saw gold prices increasing many fold. Also custom duty changes were many times in the past. And the sector continues to perform. Even the most laggard is growing at 20%+ CAGR. I will discuss all the dynamics of this sector in a lecture form. I don't know how long the video will be but it will be of immense help to anyone interested in this sector. Video will include almost all listed major B2B and B2C players. It will be a timeless video for investors. Stay tuned for the video. Tomorrow 7pm💪 @agarwal_saur?si=zzUFmUXgjO5fs4mb" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@agarwal_saur?…
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Saurabh Agarwal
Saurabh Agarwal@saur_agar7·
If someone is interested to see how Jwellery Sector actually works one can directly refer to B2B manufacturers rather than B2C retailers. Retailers command higher TAM but the real process lies with Manufacturers. Now among the manufacturers the shift of Unorganised to Organised is much more pronounced as they are coming from a smaller base. Thus the scope for formalisation is tremendous,not adding TAM from export markets. Also in case of rising gold prices organised players are much more likely to win. Jewellery Sector is actually in a continuous bull run for the past 2-3 decades,which saw gold prices increasing many fold. Also custom duty changes were many times in the past. And the sector continues to perform. Even the most laggard is growing at 20%+ CAGR. I will discuss all the dynamics of this sector in a lecture form. I don't know how long the video will be but it will be of immense help to anyone interested in this sector. Video will include almost all listed major B2B and B2C players. It will be a timeless video for investors. Stay tuned for the video. Tomorrow 7pm💪 @agarwal_saur?si=zzUFmUXgjO5fs4mb" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@agarwal_saur?…
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Saurabh Agarwal
Saurabh Agarwal@saur_agar7·
25-35% Topline with consistent Margins >>>> 100% Topline with fluctuating Margins.
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Saurabh Agarwal
Saurabh Agarwal@saur_agar7·
Hey everyone in this video I have analysed 9 EPC businesses almost all have seen some margin pressure. Same is the case with Oriana Power will be analysing it also soon. Till then if someone is interested to know what is happening in these business below. One may look at this video made yesterday. youtu.be/sveCHd8q5TY?si…
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Shreenidhi P
Shreenidhi P@nid_rockz·
Good #Q4FY26-28/5/26 post 10pm Taurian MPS #TaurianMPS #Taurian Solid H2FY26 Great comeback quarter after not so great H1FY26 Highest ever revenue, EBITDA, PBT and PAT in comps history Big growth vs H1FY26 and H2FY25 Rev at 67cr vs 43cr, H1 at 32cr PBT at 16.2cr vs 7.7cr, H1 at 5.2cr PAT at 12.5cr vs 5.6cr, H1 at 3.6cr FY26 PBT at 22cr vs 13cr FY26 PAT at 16.2cr vs 9.3cr OCF at -37cr with inventory at 47cr vs 26cr Prime Focus #PrimeFocus #PFocus Core growth is very good,there are few one offs which needs to be adjusted Good revenue uptick Solid EBITDA growth with good margin expansion QoQ and YoY Rev at 1384cr vs 979cr⏫41% YoY ⏫15% QoQ EBITDA at 488cr vs 232cr⏫110% YoY ⏫24% QoQ OPM at 35% vs 24%, Q3 at 33% ⏫1100bps YoY,⏫240 bps QoQ PBT at Oriana Power #Oriana Decent H2FY26, margin pressure Good topline uptick, margins under pressure Rev at 1032cr vs 628cr, H1 at 781cr EBITDA at 218cr vs 159cr⏫65% OPM at 21% vs 25% Employee expenses at 35cr vs 10cr Finance costs at 43cr vs 17cr PBT at 185cr vs 145cr, H1 at 162cr PAT at 130cr vs 110cr, H1 at 122cr FY26 PBT at 347cr vs 212cr FY26 PAT at 252cr vs 159cr OCF at 337cr vs 251cr Happiest Minds Technologies #Happiest #HappiestMinds Better show, valuations still on higher side Rev at 604cr sv 544cr, Q3 at 587cr Other income at 18cr vs 26cr PBT at 77cr vs 55cr, Q3 at 76cr PAT at 61cr vs 34cr, Q3 at 40cr OCF at 261cr vs 236cr 12.5% revenue growth for FY27 with aspirations to reach 15% EFC Ltd #EFCI Decent Q4FY26 Highest ever revenue, EBITDA, PBT and PAT in comps history Rev at 293cr vs 211cr, Q3 at 270cr PBT at 85cr vs 71cr, Q3 at 82cr PAT at 68cr vs 49cr, Q3 at 62cr OCF at 56cr vs 133cr Sattrix Information Security #Sattrix Good H2FY26 Rev at 33cr vs 22cr, H1 at 28cr PBT at 8cr vs 5cr, H1 at 3cr PAT at 6cr vs 3.6cr, H1 at 2cr OCF at 2cr vs -7cr Cash UR Drive Marketing #CashURDrive #CUDML Good H2FY26 Rev at 108cr vs 75cr, H1 at 78cr PBT at 24cr vs 12.5cr, H1 at 14.5cr PAT at 18.5cr vs 9.5cr, H1 at 11cr OCF at -20cr vs -25cr #Greenleaf Greenleaf Envirotech Rev at 40cr vs 28cr, H1 at 21cr PBT at 5.9cr vs 4.5cr, H1 at 3.8cr OCF at -13cr vs 6cr #Divyadhan Rev at 43cr vs 28cr, H1 at 36cr PBT at 2.1cr vs 0.2cr, H1 at 0.2cr OCF at 20cr vs 10cr #MehaiTech Rev at 62cr vs 52cr, Q3 at 22cr PBT at 4cr vs 1.4cr, Q3 at 2.9cr OCF at 14cr vs -22cr Decent: #MahalaxmiRubtech-PBT⏫16%
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Saurabh Agarwal
Saurabh Agarwal@saur_agar7·
Q4 was a tough quarter for EPC players. How is the outlook from here? In this video I have analysed Q4FY26 results of 9 EPC players and outlook from here. 1) Vikran Engineering 2)Suzlon Energy 3)Pace Digitek 4) Transrail Lighting 5)Techno Electric 6)Advait Energy 7)KP Energy 8)KP Green Energy 9)KPI Green Engineering To watch deep dive on q4 result of 10)Rajesh Power 11)Bondada Engineering Refer Q4 playlist on my YT channel. youtu.be/sveCHd8q5TY?si… #epc #transrail #kpGroup #technoElectric
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Saurabh Agarwal
Saurabh Agarwal@saur_agar7·
Based on Senco Gold's guidence of FY 27,their PAT is likely to decline in FY27. Seems they are highly conservative,or too cautious to avoid failing. Senco's business is facing tough competition from West & South [ie Gadgil and Kalyan],Titan is already the giant + local unorganised players. This shows in geographies where Senco operate ,either their brand isn't strong(which is clearly not the case),thus meaning they don't have pricing power. Effectively loosing mkt share to both organised and unorganised players. Their hedging policy never makes any sense and is always struck between managing inventory vs getting advantage of gold price increase.Thus defeating the sole purpose hedging. Neither of these lead to sustained margin expansion and operating leverage.Despite base becoming bigger and store expansion rate (in %) declining,thus loosing on the benefits which come from scale. No wonder Senco's business model is given valuation even lesser than few of commodity business[as of now ofc]. Video coming soon discussing ~10-12 players from B2B and B2C Jwellery Sector. Stay tuned !
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Shreenidhi P
Shreenidhi P@nid_rockz·
Good #Q4FY26-26/5/26 post 1pm till 5pm Marksans Pharma #Marksans Solid Q4FY26 Big QoQ and YoY uptick across all parameters Rev at 856cr vs 708cr, Q3 at 754cr PBT at 200cr vs 116cr, Q3 at 151cr PAT at 149cr vs 91cr, Q3 at 114cr OCF at 458cr vs 206cr Ambika Cotton #AmbikCot Good Q4FY26 with good QoQ and YoY uptick across all parameters Rev at 215cr vs 136cr, Q3 at 174cr PBT at 33cr vs 22cr, Q3 at 20cr PAT at 25cr vs 16cr, Q3 at 15cr OCF at 228cr vs 129cr RedTape India #RedTape Good Q4FY26 with highest ever Q4 Rev at 676cr vs 506cr PBT at 96cr vs 57cr PAT at 70cr vs 41cr OCF at 174cr vs 4cr Diamond Power #DiaCabs Solid Q4FY26 Rev at 696cr vs 333cr, Q3 at 474cr EBITDA at 77cr vs 14cr worth good margin expansion YoY PBT and PAT at 62cr vs 9cr, Q3 at 51cr Good QoQ and YoY uptick across all parameters OCF at -80cr vs 17cr Goodluck India #Goodluck Rev down, margin expands QoQ and YoY Rev at 1078cr vs 1092cr PBT at 77cr vs 57cr, Q3 at 59cr PAT at 56cr vs 42cr, Q3 at 44cr OCF at 200cr vs 158cr Procter and Gamble Health #PGH Solid Q4FY26 Rev at 370cr vs 311cr, Q3 at 373cr PBT at 133cr vs 79cr, Q3 at 109cr PAT at 95cr vs 61cr, Q3 at 78cr OCF at 338cr vs 169cr Solarworld Energy Solutions #SolarWorld Good Q4FY26, lower QoQ Very good YoY Rev at 592cr vs 176cr, Q3 at 578cr Other income at 15cr vs 10cr QoQ PBT at 64cr vs 14cr, Q3 at 67cr PAT at 49cr vs 9cr,flat QoQ OCF at -48cr vs 54cr AIA Engineering #AIAEngg Rev at 1266cr vs 1157cr, Q3 at 1066cr PBT at 460cr vs 357cr, Q3 at 381cr PAT at 393cr vs 285cr, Q3 at 293c4 OCF at 591cr vs 1162cr Grauer Weil #GrauerWeil Good Q4FY26 Solid QoQ and YoY uptick across all parameters Rev at 353cr vs 337cr, Q3 at 288cr PBT at 67cr vs 34cr Q3 at 45cr PAT at 51cr vs 26cr, Q3 at 33cr OCF at 154cr vs 145cr Jasch Industries #Jasch Solid Q4FY26 Rev at 78cr vs 50cr, Q3 at 57cr PBT at 8.5cr vs 3cr, Q3 at 2.4cr PAT at 6 3cr vs 2.5cr, Q3 at 2.5cr OCF at 3cr vs 8cr Rupa and Co #Rupa Good one after ages Rev at 440cr vs 424cr, Q3 at 312cr PBT at 52cr vs 42cr, Q2 at 23cr PAT at 36cr vs 30cr, Q3 at 16cr OCF at 45cr vs 59cr JK Tyres #JKTyre Rev at 4223cr vs 3758cr, Q3 at 4222cr EBITDA at 546cr vs 384cr, Q3 at 583cr PBT at 323cr vs 146cr, Q3 at 358cr OCF at 1443cr vs 715cr Asahi Songwon #AsahiSong Rev down at 144cr vs 152cr, Q3 at 122cr PBT at 15cr vs 9cr, Q3 at 3cr PAT at 11cr vs 7cr, Q3 at 2cr OCF at 43cr vs 58cr TIPCO Engineering #TIPCO Solid H2FY26 Good growth vs H1FY26 and H2FY25 Rev at 95cr vs 57cr, H1 at 50cr PBT at 21ce vs 9cr, H1 at 11cr PAT at 17cr vs 6.5cr, Q3 at 8.5cr OCF at 16cr vs -31cr Lokesh Machines #Lokesh Rev at 59cr vs 39cr, Q3 at 51cr PBT at 2.7cr vs 0.3cr, Q3 at 0.9cr OCF at -13cr vs 21cr Dhabriya Polywood #Dhabriya Rev at 70cr vs 63cr, Q3 at 66cr PBT at 12cr vs 7cr, Q3 at 10cr PAT at 8.3cr vs 5cr, Q3 at 7.6cr OCF at 8cr vs 17cr Bizotic Commercial #Bizotic Rev at 177cr vs 59cr, H1 at 74cr PBT at 13.7cr vs 4.4cr, H1 at 11.2cr PAT at 10cr vs 4cr, H1 at 8cr Recievables at 90cr vs 24cr OCF at -40cr vs 5cr Deepak Spinners #DeepakSpin Turnaround Rev flat at 121cr PBT at 3.6cr vs loss, Q3 at 3.3cr OCF at 19cr vs 16cr Northern Spirits #NorthSpr Rev at 616cr vs 466cr, Q3 at 596cr PBT at 7cr vs 3.3cr, Q3 at 9.4cr PAT at 5cr vs 2cr, Q3 at 7cr OCF at 7.5cr vs -7cr TAAL Tech #TAAL Rev at 55ce vs 43cr, Q3 at 44cr PBT at 20cr vs 15cr, Q3 at 14cr PAT at 17cr vs 11cr, Q3 at 11cr OCF at 29cr vs 36cr Benchmark Computer #Benchmark Rev at 37cr vs 24cr, H1 at 29cr PBT at 2.6cr vs 0.9cr, H1 at 2cr OCF at 8cr vs -4cr CSL Finance #CSLFin Rev at 69cr vs 57cr, Q3 at 64cr PBT at 30cr vs 25cr, Q3 at 25cr #PasupatiSpin Rev flat at 28cr PBT at 2.5cr vs 0.3cr, Q3 at 0.3cr OCF at 4.7cr vs 4.3cr Decent: #VenusTubes Rev at 302cr vs 258cr, Q3 at 297cr PBT at 35cr vs 30cr,flat QoQ #TransportCorp Rev⏫12%, PBT ⏫3% #JubilantIngrevia PBT ⏫10% #BlackBox PBT at 83cr vs 70cr, Q3 at 83cr #Sumitomo Rev at 683cr vs 679cr PBT at 147cr vs 133cr, Q3 at 118cr #FractalInd Rev down PBT at 7.6cr vs 5cr, H1 at 8cr
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Saurabh Agarwal
Saurabh Agarwal@saur_agar7·
Nahi ... positive for both EPC And module makers. 1)Most EPC modules are purchased by developers. 2)In any case even if the module is purchased by EPC players it's a pass on cost (see full turnkey has better Margins vs BOM epc projects)(turnkey includes modules as part of BOM). 3)Here the developer's perspective is important to fully answer this question. Now ,for a developer a project is determined by its IRR,these small price changes don't affect IRR. So no impact there, 4)When a developer and client PPA are negotiated these factors are already taken into account. 5) Now,for purchasers like us or let's say a steel plant or data centre. Here Renewables has huge cost arbitrage vs coal ,hydro and nuclear thus,these policy changes don't distort the picture by huge margins. 6) Finally it's the push from the govt , before this many such changes have already come,and the ecosystem has strengthened post that. This is the same, rather it's a positive for the whole sector, Chinese cell, module price won't impact margin of domestic established players (B/C integrated) @samisosa1234
Samisosa@samisosa1234

Positive for Solar Mnaufacturers But Negative for Solar EPC players ?

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